Do the Democrats have any shot at getting this seat or coming close?
Not really. Like all PA it's gerrymandered to hell and back.
I don't think that makes much of a difference in this district. Even if it were a compact district anchored in the corner like the old PA-20, it'd still be a very tough district (maybe R+8 instead of R+11). It's apparent by the inclusion of Westmoreland County over Fayette that not even Republicans knew how much Western PA was going to swing their way. Still though, a lot rural Trump areas have swung hard against Republicans in special elections as of late. Democrats shouldn't automatically concede though. Pennsylvania is prone to large swings and Republicans went far-right with their pick. It's worth a shot, especially if the political environment is even worse by March.
