Ohio county map predictions?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

[pbrower2a]

Bad year for Democrats in Ohio (2016):



The Democrats can't win even Montgomery (Dayton), Trumbull (Warren), or Mahoning (Youngstown) counties. 

Bare Democratic loss (2004):



...but swing Hamilton County (Cincinnati) to the Democrats while swinging Belmont, Monroe, and Jefferson counties on the Ohio River to the Republican.

Bare Democratic win (2012):

 

The Democrats win all counties on the Ohio Turnpike corridor from Greater Toledo (they do miss heavily-rural Williams and Fulton Counties) to the Pennsylvania state line and the Ohio 11 (that is a freeway) corridor. This is as well as I can see any Democrat doing in 2020, except perhaps for Democrats picking up Clark (Springfield) or Tuscarawas Counties.  2008 was similar.

Ohio may be a swing state, but it takes a real foul-up of a Republican nominee to lose the state this badly:

 

Goldwater, 1964.

Obama was the slickest and most competent campaigner in recent American history, and he barely won the state twice.

[Rjjr77]

I COULD see a democrat pick up Delaware in a wave.

[RINO Tom]

Regarding pbrower's post, I don't think people appreciate how Republican Ohio has been at a local level and - to a lesser extent - historically.  At the very least, the GOP seems to have a very, very high floor in the state under normal circumstances.  59% of the state's voters in 2016 identified as "Suburban," and Trump won that group by 20 points; any other Republican would do at least as good.  Trump won the state by a lot because of how many "Rust Belt" counties he flipped, but those (IMO) padded the margins rather than swung the state.  Ohio being Lean R now says a lot more about Obama than it does about Trump.