Most likely to get Ehrlich'd

[Tekken_Guy]

Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, and Phil Scott are three moderate GOP governors who all govern very blue states and are very popular. However, Trump's deep unpopularity is looking to potentially drag them down hard.

In 2006, Republican Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich lost re-election despite his popularity because people unhappy with Bush wanted a Democrat in Annapolis. Which of the three is most likely to follow in his footsteps?

[Don Vito Corleone]

Hogan easily. His win was a fluke and if his approval rating slips to say, 57, he's done for. Remember, Maryland is different from Vermont and Massachusetts in that even on the gubernatorial level, it is pretty solidly Democratic.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Hogan easily. His win was a fluke and if his approval rating slips to say, 57, he's done for. Remember, Maryland is different from Vermont and Massachusetts in that even on the gubernatorial level, it is pretty solidly Democratic.

[GoTfan]

Hogan easily. His win was a fluke and if his approval rating slips to say, 57, he's done for. Remember, Maryland is different from Vermont and Massachusetts in that even on the gubernatorial level, it is pretty solidly Democratic.

Exactly. He can't afford a single slip-up.

[Young Conservative]

Hogan, but none of these governors will lose.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan all the way. Hogan will have to share the ballot with Cardin (or another Democrat if he retires) and Maryland isn't a state that splits tickets.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Hogan all the way. Hogan will have to share the ballot with Cardin (or another Democrat if he retires) and Maryland isn't a state that splits tickets.

Cardin announced his reelection bid, iirc.

[Mr. Smith]

Depends on if Bernie endorses and campaigns hard for the challenger to Scott or not.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Hogan all the way. Hogan will have to share the ballot with Cardin (or another Democrat if he retires) and Maryland isn't a state that splits tickets.

Cardin announced his reelection bid, iirc.

No offense meant, but I honestly thought y'all were the same person talking to one's self. Two D-MD avatars with similar post counts? Too much for me to handle.

[Figueira]

Hogan. Baker is more likely than Scott though, unless I missed something in Vermont news.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan all the way. Hogan will have to share the ballot with Cardin (or another Democrat if he retires) and Maryland isn't a state that splits tickets.

Cardin announced his reelection bid, iirc.

No offense meant, but I honestly thought y'all were the same person talking to one's self. Two D-MD avatars with similar post counts? Too much for me to handle.

We're different people, trust me. We've had heated debates about the D primary for governor, and can't seem to agree.

[Ye We Can]

Hogan, who is from the same state as Ehrlich.

Baker is Likely to win and Scott is safe at this point.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hogan will lose in 2018.

(Probably)

[TheLeftwardTide]

Hogan all the way. Hogan will have to share the ballot with Cardin (or another Democrat if he retires) and Maryland isn't a state that splits tickets.

Cardin announced his reelection bid, iirc.

No offense meant, but I honestly thought y'all were the same person talking to one's self. Two D-MD avatars with similar post counts? Too much for me to handle.

We're different people, trust me. We've had heated debates about the D primary for governor, and can't seem to agree.

Eh...

I've changed my avatar anyway (probably not permanently, but still)

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Get a room, you two.

[JMT]

Hogan is the most likely to lose out of these three, followed by Baker, then Scott. All are favored to win at the moment though

[Skill and Chance]

No option for Rauner?  He's in the most trouble after signing that abortion funding law.  The R base could just stay home.  Unless perhaps he plans to run as an Indie?

As for these 3, I think they will either all win or all lose.  If it's about local issues/personal popularity, they are flying high, but it could be a wave election where no Republican can win statewide in a Clinton state.

[Maxwell]

Hogan. Rauner is dead in the water now it seems, and I would be deadly surprised if either Baker or Scott lost re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

No option for Rauner?  He's in the most trouble after signing that abortion funding law.  The R base could just stay home.  Unless perhaps he plans to run as an Indie?

As for these 3, I think they will either all win or all lose.  If it's about local issues/personal popularity, they are flying high, but it could be a wave election where no Republican can win statewide in a Clinton state.

Rauner's not popular. He doesn't fit in with the other three governors here.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Hogan is definitely the most likely to lose, and Baker is probably the least likely. I think Baker's ceiling is pretty low, but I think his floor is pretty high. I feel like Scott could plausibly lose against a good Democrat, especially if Sanders tries to wield his influence in that race. I would say Hogan has a roughly 45% chance of losing, Scott has a roughly 35% chance, and Baker has a roughly 25% chance.

[Joe Republic]

The premise here is that Ehrlich was popular.  That's easily disputed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hogan


Scott












Baker