When will FL vote to the left of PA

[Da2017]

The I-4 corridor is slowly trending Democratic. Western Pennsylvania is driving the republican shift.

[Young Conservative]

The I-4 corridor is still swing district. I do not see a trend; I see fluctuation. Florida is super polarized and will remain that way. Anyway, any losses in the I-4 are being offset in the North and other areas of Florida. Remember when Volusia County was so Democratic that it was with Palm Beach and Miami Dame during the recount forced by Gore? Volusia voted R, which was offset by Orange becoming more liberal. There are constant fluctuations in Florida, but the overall state remains the same.

[Person Man]

Maybe next election, given current trends.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe next election, given current trends.

I'm not sure about this.  If anything, Florida appears to be moving right.  Pennsylvania is as well, but it seems like the easiest 2X Obama-Trump state for Democrats to win back.  For now, the influx of retirees and final decline of the anomalously Dem FDR generation is clearly winning over ethnic diversification.  It also doesn't help that Obama decided to pal around with Cuba.

The Puerto Rico situation could change this, but the only way I could see it happening in 2020 is if PA swings hard right like Florida did for Bush in 2004.

[Person Man]

Maybe next election, given current trends.

I'm not sure about this.  If anything, Florida appears to be moving right.  Pennsylvania is as well, but it seems like the easiest 2X Obama-Trump state for Democrats to win back.  For now, the influx of retirees and final decline of the anomalously Dem FDR generation is clearly winning over ethnic diversification.  It also doesn't help that Obama decided to pal around with Cuba.

The Puerto Rico situation could change this, but the only way I could see it happening in 2020 is if PA swings hard right like Florida did for Bush in 2004.

I could buy this but basically Florida stayed roughly the same from 2012 and Pennsylvania swung hard to the right.

I think there are two opposing things going on. The graying of America against the browning of it and Ironically, cracking down on immigration and entitlements could slow both of them down. That's neither here nor there. Florida is definitely getting older and more diverse. Not so sue about Pennsylvania.

[Person Man]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

Arizona doesn't have hurricanes. It gets a TS or TD the way Tennessee does every now and then, though. You definitely need to work to make California work, though... say if you were the average person who went to school or worked with a union, started at 40000 a year and make 70 or 80 when you are 50. 

[Young Conservative]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

It isn't just older American in Florida that drive up Republican votes. 25-29 Year olds in Florida voted for Trump and 40-64 did as well. There is evidence that there will be continuing generations of Florida conservative voters beyond transplanted older Americans.

[Person Man]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

It isn't just older American in Florida that drive up Republican votes. 25-29 Year olds in Florida voted for Trump and 40-64 did as well. There is evidence that there will be continuing generations of Florida conservative voters beyond transplanted older Americans.

The 25-29 thing is interesting considering how he did with those adjacent to that.

[Xing]

Maybe 2024, but I could see it remaining slightly to the right of PA.

[PoliticalShelter]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

I wonder where affluent retirees will go if the sunbelt becomes a mess thanks to climate change? Maybe New England?

[Person Man]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

I wonder where affluent retirees will go if the sunbelt becomes a mess thanks to climate change? Maybe New England?

Arizona will still be an option. I don't think Phoenix/Tempe/Mesa or Tuscon is changing that much..

[Lord Admirale]

Influx of Puerto Ricans could cause Florida to shift to the left, while a shrinking Pennsylvania drifts to the right.

[RINO Tom]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

I wonder where affluent retirees will go if the sunbelt becomes a mess thanks to climate change? Maybe New England?

Well the Sun Belt metro cities aren't entirely along the coast. Sure there's Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston, but there's places like Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Phoenix that are all inland. My guess is that retirees start migrating to warmer but more inland places if the storms become as frequent as they have been this season. People don't want to risk property damage, especially if they're in retirement. I'd guess other southern areas with lakes and golf courses galore or something like that become more common.

I wonder if that could actually end up causing a state like North Carolina or Georgia to shift back to the right?  That would be an interesting development.

Influx of Puerto Ricans could cause Florida to shift to the left, while a shrinking Pennsylvania drifts to the right.

It is an incredibly recent thing that a growing area would be more Democratic than Republican; I wouldn't count on that continuing for TOO long.

[Skill and Chance]

2024 or 2028.

Old white retirees won’t be flooding Florida in the same numbers they have been if these hurricanes continue to intensify. They’ll begin to retire to other places.

I wonder where affluent retirees will go if the sunbelt becomes a mess thanks to climate change? Maybe New England?

Well the Sun Belt metro cities aren't entirely along the coast. Sure there's Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston, but there's places like Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Phoenix that are all inland. My guess is that retirees start migrating to warmer but more inland places if the storms become as frequent as they have been this season. People don't want to risk property damage, especially if they're in retirement. I'd guess other southern areas with lakes and golf courses galore or something like that become more common.

I wonder if that could actually end up causing a state like North Carolina or Georgia to shift back to the right?  That would be an interesting development.

Influx of Puerto Ricans could cause Florida to shift to the left, while a shrinking Pennsylvania drifts to the right.

It is an incredibly recent thing that a growing area would be more Democratic than Republican; I wouldn't count on that continuing for TOO long.

This is already what's keeping the GOP alive in NC.  I think it would be dominated by other trends in Georgia, though.  Not to mention that both are quite far south and NC has been whacked by quite a few hurricanes in its history.  If environmental conditions in Florida deteriorate, I think you would start seeing retirement communities spring up in the Western no income tax states (NV, WA, SD, WY, maybe TX but it also gets bad hurricanes, AK if the climate really warms).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Influx of Puerto Ricans could cause Florida to shift to the left, while a shrinking Pennsylvania drifts to the right.

There is a huge Puerto Rican presence in Philadelphia though. They make up 3/4 of the city's Latino population, and there are a lot of people who split their time between Philly and Puerto Rico. I see a lot of them moving back to Philly full time.

I guess if more whites in Western PA move away from the Democratic party, and they lose ground in areas like Scranton it could happen.

[Person Man]

Influx of Puerto Ricans could cause Florida to shift to the left, while a shrinking Pennsylvania drifts to the right.

There is a huge Puerto Rican presence in Philadelphia though. They make up 3/4 of the city's Latino population, and there are a lot of people who split their time between Philly and Puerto Rico. I see a lot of them moving back to Philly full time.

I guess if more whites in Western PA move away from the Democratic party, and they lose ground in areas like Scranton it could happen.

That could just be to Pennsylvania. Maybe there is and maybe there isn't an overlap with current Florida-bound people.

If we take everything to face value, the migration will probably vote 3:1 Dem and probably move the vote in Florida to Democrats by about half a percent.  Out of the last 4 elections, the top of the ticket was decided by about 1%. Scott, Obama, Scott, Trump.

So, at this point either Florida becomes more like 2002 Colorado or 2012 Arizona  if Democrats finally cut their loses and give up on the state or like Colorado now if the Republican Party pulls a Kansas. Most likely, I think the Democrats will still be able to have occasional successes here, but the state stays slightly to the right. Just like it is right now.

With the Democratic brand ruined on the Ohio and Mississippi valley, they know they have to do better in Florida to win but they know the local party is "hard to organize".

[Mr. Smith]

For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.

Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.

Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.

In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.

[Person Man]

For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.

Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.

Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.

In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.

That and Pinellas Seminole, and St. Lucie would probably flip and maybe Monroe would swing back, too. I think that happens to the next D that wins statewide.

[libertpaulian]

For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.

Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.

Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.

In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.

That and Pinellas Seminole, and St. Lucie would probably flip and maybe Monroe would swing back, too. I think that happens to the next D that wins statewide.

The next Dem that wins Florida will win Duval County, plus the Obama 2012 Florida map.  I'd even wager on a couple northern counties as a possibility.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.

Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.

Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.

In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.

The problem is that Bucks has been slightly trending R, which is why Toomey won it, and Trump almost won it despite getting demolished in the rest of the Philly suburban counties.

This is why you have seen PA become a hodgepodge as well with the key counties now being spread all over the state including Centre, Bucks, Northampton and Dauphin, only one of which is now a Philly suburb county.

The other problem is that the Dems have maxed out in Philly, compared to the steady gains they made in registration and voting when Fast Eddy Rendell was Mayor and then Governor. They have also seem to have plateaued in the Philly suburban counties as well, with Montco and Delco bouncing between 55% to 60% D, Bucks about 50-50 and Chester swinging wildly.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

2028

[Devils30]

Possibly as soon as 2020. People said PA would always be to the left of the nation, then it wasn't in 2016. FL could lose its R lean fairly soon. The white % now in elections is 62-65% ish, once that number gets in the 50s (it will very soon) the GOP will have a lot of trouble. As older Cubans die off, Dems could easily get 70-30 margins in Dade.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Possibly as soon as 2020. People said PA would always be to the left of the nation, then it wasn't in 2016. FL could lose its R lean fairly soon. The white % now in elections is 62-65% ish, once that number gets in the 50s (it will very soon) the GOP will have a lot of trouble. As older Cubans die off, Dems could easily get 70-30 margins in Dade.

I agree with this^

[Person Man]

Possibly as soon as 2020. People said PA would always be to the left of the nation, then it wasn't in 2016. FL could lose its R lean fairly soon. The white % now in elections is 62-65% ish, once that number gets in the 50s (it will very soon) the GOP will have a lot of trouble. As older Cubans die off, Dems could easily get 70-30 margins in Dade.

I agree with this^

The state would already be learn to likely D if it wasn't in the south.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.

Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.

Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.

In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.

The problem is that Bucks has been slightly trending R, which is why Toomey won it, and Trump almost won it despite getting demolished in the rest of the Philly suburban counties.

This is why you have seen PA become a hodgepodge as well with the key counties now being spread all over the state including Centre, Bucks, Northampton and Dauphin, only one of which is now a Philly suburb county.

The other problem is that the Dems have maxed out in Philly, compared to the steady gains they made in registration and voting when Fast Eddy Rendell was Mayor and then Governor. They have also seem to have plateaued in the Philly suburban counties as well, with Montco and Delco bouncing between 55% to 60% D, Bucks about 50-50 and Chester swinging wildly.

It will be interesting to see if Chester settles closer to Bucks or Montco/Delco. If democrats can continue to win big there, things will be hard, though clearly not impossible for republicans. The Lehigh Valley is also booming thanks to a central location turning it into the warehouse city. Trump made gains here, flipping Northampton County, but a lot of these new blue collar jobs are likely to be filled by the growing Hispanic and Arab populations. Pittsburgh is also worth watching. Unlike the rest of Western PA, it hasn't swung to the right, but it is far whiter than most big cities and has long been the epitome of a unionized working class white democrat city. Obviously, it's more white collar now, but the right republican who can appeal to both groups could maybe cut the democrat lead to 10 points in Allegheny County, leaving Philly to outweigh the rest of the state almost singlehandedly.