NH-1: Shea-Porter (D) to retire

[Strudelcutie4427]

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Shea-Porter always was too liberal for anywhere in the district outside of the Portsmouth area.
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Totally agree. Almost all of her elections were won because of UNH

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I don't think dems will have too much trouble holding the seat here, the main reason 2016 was so close was because of that dumbass Shawn O’Connor.

And because of guintas corruption. He would've won if he was clean

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Lol. Well, RIP FF, this is actually pretty sad news (NH-01 can definitely do A LOT worse than CSP). Democrats should still win the GE fairly easily, and I expect NH-01 to be just as Democratic-friendly as NH-02 very soon (it's trending strongly Democratic, whether people like it or not).

2012: 50% CSP, 46% Guinta
2012: 50% Obama, 49% Romney
2014: 52% Guinta, 48% CSP
2016: 44% CSP, 43% Guinta
2016: 48% Trump, 47% Clinton

How is it "trending strongly Democratic"?

I know Republicans did better in NH in 2016 than I and many other people expected, but I'm pretty sure that this district is still trending Democratic in the long term. All that attention as well as time and money spent in NH by the Republicans and they couldn't even win one of the three "big competitive" races (PRES, SEN, NH-01) despite the fact that 2016 was a very good year for them in general. They also lost two races that "should" have been competitive in 2014 (SEN, GOV). Yeah, Trump and Ayotte won the district, but it was a lot closer than it should have been if NH were really still a true swing state. Ayotte needed to win NH-01 by more than she actually did, and she even did worse than Scott Brown in Rockingham County. Sununu did well there, but he was running as a moderate (who is fairly liberal on many social issues) and against an awful opponent. We'll see how kind NH voters will be to him and his fellow Republicans in 2018.

Either way, even if you're convinced that NH is a pure Tossup/swing state, you'll have to admit that the Democrats' floor here and in NH-02 is very high, much higher than it was a decade ago or so. Given all the demographic changes as well as the fact that the GOP has been alienating enough moderate voters (including some former Republicans) with some of their positions and rhetoric on controversial social and economic issues, I don't expect the outlook for the NH GOP to be much rosier in the future either. The NH GOP is definitely in big trouble IMO.

I think NH is a fairly competitive state with a decisively Democratic lean, but I do not think the 1st CD is the reason.  It is still the only reason Republicans have any chance there, ever.

The thing is here like almost every state, the residents are more republican leaning its just the colleges that throw it the other way. Like the 1st district has to deal with UNH (very popular among MA students; which is why I live here now) and the 2nd has to deal with Keene and Dartmouth (Harvard in the woods).

[Strudelcutie4427]

Lol. Well, RIP FF, this is actually pretty sad news (NH-01 can definitely do A LOT worse than CSP). Democrats should still win the GE fairly easily, and I expect NH-01 to be just as Democratic-friendly as NH-02 very soon (it's trending strongly Democratic, whether people like it or not).

2012: 50% CSP, 46% Guinta
2012: 50% Obama, 49% Romney
2014: 52% Guinta, 48% CSP
2016: 44% CSP, 43% Guinta
2016: 48% Trump, 47% Clinton

How is it "trending strongly Democratic"?

I know Republicans did better in NH in 2016 than I and many other people expected, but I'm pretty sure that this district is still trending Democratic in the long term. All that attention as well as time and money spent in NH by the Republicans and they couldn't even win one of the three "big competitive" races (PRES, SEN, NH-01) despite the fact that 2016 was a very good year for them in general. They also lost two races that "should" have been competitive in 2014 (SEN, GOV). Yeah, Trump and Ayotte won the district, but it was a lot closer than it should have been if NH were really still a true swing state. Ayotte needed to win NH-01 by more than she actually did, and she even did worse than Scott Brown in Rockingham County. Sununu did well there, but he was running as a moderate (who is fairly liberal on many social issues) and against an awful opponent. We'll see how kind NH voters will be to him and his fellow Republicans in 2018.

Either way, even if you're convinced that NH is a pure Tossup/swing state, you'll have to admit that the Democrats' floor here and in NH-02 is very high, much higher than it was a decade ago or so. Given all the demographic changes as well as the fact that the GOP has been alienating enough moderate voters (including some former Republicans) with some of their positions and rhetoric on controversial social and economic issues, I don't expect the outlook for the NH GOP to be much rosier in the future either. The NH GOP is definitely in big trouble IMO.

I think NH is a fairly competitive state with a decisively Democratic lean, but I do not think the 1st CD is the reason.  It is still the only reason Republicans have any chance there, ever.

The thing is here like almost every state, the residents are more republican leaning its just the colleges that throw it the other way. Like the 1st district has to deal with UNH (very popular among MA students; which is why I live here now) and the 2nd has to deal with Keene and Dartmouth (Harvard in the woods).

None of those make up a very significant portion of their district's population though.   They give the dems a small boost but they can't carry the whole district, especially with youth turnout how it is and their propensity to vote third party.

Dartmouth literally gave Hilary the state last year. I think she won the town of Hanover by 6000 votes and 88% of it in that one town

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"[Macomb County] literally gave [Trump] the state last year."
"[Lancaster County] literally gave [Trump] the state last year."
"[Waukesha County] literally gave [Trump] the state last year."

See how ridiculous your argument is?

I always thought Dartmouth was a conservative university.  I think there is a difference in that a lot of the students at these Ivy League Universities anyway (if Dartmouth is Ivy League) aren't planning to be permanent residents of the state, and once they're done with college, they'll leave the state.  That is obviously mostly different with residents of Macomb County and so on.

Of course, since all votes are equal, as a practical matter, the argument still doesn't make a difference.

No Dartmouth is definitely pretty liberal,  that whole area of Grafton is heavily Democratic.

Specifically that string of 3 towns along the river, Lebanon, Hanover, and Lyme.
Here's Hanover (Dartmouth/Cambridge of New Hampshire) specifically

[Strudelcutie4427]

Another thing worth pointing out is that college towns are usually liberal because of the non-student population being so liberal, not because of college students who vote.

True you might be right there. Although I wonder what draws so many liberals to the area since I doubt Hanover, NH (pop 13000) is home to only Dartmouth Faculty. But you're probably right in the case of alot of Massachusetts towns like Easton and Bridgewater having good sized colleges but are pretty republican places. Although Stonehill and BSU are definitely not bastions of liberalism

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These are the potential Democratic candidates according to www.politics1.com

Renny Cushing (D) - State Rep. & Progressive Activist
Mark MacKenzie (D) - State Rep., Ex-State AFL-CIO President & Retired Firefighter
Steve Marchand (D) - Ex-Portsmouth Mayor, Consultant, '16 Candidate & '08 US Sen. Candidate
Mindi Messmer (D) - State Rep. & Environmental Consultant
Terie Norelli (D) - Ex-State House Speaker & Ex-Teacher
Chris Pappas (D) - Executive Councilor & Restaurant Owner
Stefany Shaheen (D) - Ex-Portsmouth City Councilor, Businesswoman & Ex-Management Consultant
Lincoln Soldati (D) - Ex-Somersworth Mayor & Ex-Strafford County Attorney
Donna Soucy (D) - State Sen., Ex-State Rep., Ex-Manchester Alderman & Attorney
Maura Sullivan (D) - Ex-US Asst Secretary of Veterans Affairs & Iraq War Veteran

Marchand is running for Governor, so it'll be interesting to see if he sticks with that or jumps in to this race.

Not to beat a dead horse, but to everyone mention Ayotte earlier -- she indeed lives in Nashua which is not in this district.

And if the other district opened up she'd also be at a disadvantage, since most people in NH-02 probably assume Nashua is in the other district anyway.

It should be by the next redistricting. Southern NH is a distinct community of interest but its all chopped up right now

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Marine Corps Veteran, Maura Sullivan (D), throws her hat into the ring for NH-1.

http://nh1.com/news/top-news/marine-corps-veteran-announces-run-for-nh-s-1st-congressional-district-seat

She's hot but I'm sticking with Edwards