NH-1: Shea-Porter (D) to retire

[Cactus Jack]

Someone check on Treasurer. I'm worried he might actually be dying of an explosive brain hemorrhage somewhere.

[Cactus Jack]

Well then why the hell even come back in 16?

Maybe she wanted to run against Frank Guinta one more time.

She probably wanted to be remembered as the one who came out victorious at the end of this back-and-forth drama.

As much as I think the running New Hampshire gag going between you and Treasurer is a bit silly (I say that fondly), you're probably right on the money here. Likely the same reason Schneider came back one last time against Dold, though Schneider is much likelier to stay where he is.

[Cactus Jack]

Lol. Well, RIP FF, this is actually pretty sad news (NH-01 can definitely do A LOT worse than CSP). Democrats should still win the GE fairly easily, and I expect NH-01 to be just as Democratic-friendly as NH-02 very soon (it's trending strongly Democratic, whether people like it or not).

2012: 50% CSP, 46% Guinta
2012: 50% Obama, 49% Romney
2014: 52% Guinta, 48% CSP
2016: 44% CSP, 43% Guinta
2016: 48% Trump, 47% Clinton

How is it "trending strongly Democratic"?

I know Republicans did better in NH in 2016 than I and many other people expected, but I'm pretty sure that this district is still trending Democratic in the long term. All that attention as well as time and money spent in NH by the Republicans and they couldn't even win one of the three "big competitive" races (PRES, SEN, NH-01) despite the fact that 2016 was a very good year for them in general. They also lost two races that "should" have been competitive in 2014 (SEN, GOV). Yeah, Trump and Ayotte won the district, but it was a lot closer than it should have been if NH were really still a true swing state. Ayotte needed to win NH-01 by more than she actually did, and she even did worse than Scott Brown in Rockingham County. Sununu did well there, but he was running as a moderate (who is fairly liberal on many social issues) and against an awful opponent. We'll see how kind NH voters will be to him and his fellow Republicans in 2018.

Either way, even if you're convinced that NH is a pure Tossup/swing state, you'll have to admit that the Democrats' floor here and in NH-02 is very high, much higher than it was a decade ago or so. Given all the demographic changes as well as the fact that the GOP has been alienating enough moderate voters (including some former Republicans) with some of their positions and rhetoric on controversial social and economic issues, I don't expect the outlook for the NH GOP to be much rosier in the future either. The NH GOP is definitely in big trouble IMO.

Well, I'll give you one thing: much like the state parties in North Dakota and Kansas, the NHGOP's bench is absolutely dreadful. I don't buy that New Hampshire is organically becoming some far-left super-bastion, but NH state Republicans are creating a dire situation for themselves all on their own when Ayotte and Sununu are the only seriously decent candidates they have left. Beyond those two, all they have - or at least so it seems to me - is a bench full of Guintas and Lamontagnes.

[Cactus Jack]

Pappas and Shaheen are probably the Democrats' best bets here.

[Cactus Jack]

Marine Corps Veteran, Maura Sullivan (D), throws her hat into the ring for NH-1.

http://nh1.com/news/top-news/marine-corps-veteran-announces-run-for-nh-s-1st-congressional-district-seat

Enthusiastically endorsed.