Are the Midwest and the Northeast slowly slipping away from the Democrats?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois trended even more D, Sanders in the primary and Johnson did a lot towards Minnesota, NH remained D despite the rest of its history. Massachusetts went more D too.

What's next, The Southwest is a lost cause for Republicans?

It is, hadn't you heard?  The Southwest and Sunbelt include areas now worthy of liberals' vacation weeks PLUS some people there have college degrees, so they HAVE to be trending D at a rapid rate.

Don't forget all those affluent white suburbs which have gone Republican again and again, but they'll vote Democrat eventually! Any day now!

That happened last year.

Not really.  Some did, but Trump won the suburban vote overall and his vote share increased DIRECTLY with a higher income.  Literally a direct correlation.

Yes, but Hillary improved MASSIVELY over Obama's performance. She won further out, less-densely-populated suburbs that went 60% for Romney. Sure, there were a bunch of suburban areas she didn't win, but you're talking about areas where Mitt won 3:1 going for Trumo by low teens or even single digits.

[RFayette]

Illinois trended even more D, Sanders in the primary and Johnson did a lot towards Minnesota, NH remained D despite the rest of its history. Massachusetts went more D too.

What's next, The Southwest is a lost cause for Republicans?

It is, hadn't you heard?  The Southwest and Sunbelt include areas now worthy of liberals' vacation weeks PLUS some people there have college degrees, so they HAVE to be trending D at a rapid rate.

Don't forget all those affluent white suburbs which have gone Republican again and again, but they'll vote Democrat eventually! Any day now!

That happened last year.

Not really.  Some did, but Trump won the suburban vote overall and his vote share increased DIRECTLY with a higher income.  Literally a direct correlation.

Yes, but Hillary improved MASSIVELY over Obama's performance. She won further out, less-densely-populated suburbs that went 60% for Romney. Sure, there were a bunch of suburban areas she didn't win, but you're talking about areas where Mitt won 3:1 going for Trumo by low teens or even single digits.

This is true, but the point is that was probably the high watermark for performance in those wealthy outlying suburbs.  A Democrat who is further left economically will most likely win the 2020 nomination, and Trump will likely salvage at least a few Never-Trump votes in those precincts, I'd imagine.  Do you think that those areas will continue to trend Democratic?   I have my doubts.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The problem for the sunbelt is that is that everything has to be considered relative to the following factors:

1. Southern whites vote Republican at inflated rates in the South because of racially polarized politics
2. This racial polarization is heavily skewed towards Baby Boomers and older voters.
3. Younger voters are going to be progressively less Republican as white voters revert to the mean with generational change.
4. Assuming Democratic support among African American's in the South remains constant (I think it will because that is where Republicans are in power and are cutting their access to voting), this portends an ever deteriorating situation for the Republicans in states like MS, GA and TX.

Therefore, even if Republicans avoided the bleeding among college educated whites, the simple "normalization" or "de-southernization" of College educated whites down to averages in the other regions of the country, portends the reduction in the overal white vote substantial relative to a constant Democratic performance among a solid 35% and growing African American block.

Lets say in MS that African Americans make up 38% of the Electorate and whites are going 80% Republican. 
                D            R
38*.9 = 34.2%     3.8%

62*.2 = 12.4%  49.2%
total:     46.6%    53%

Lets drop it down to 65% Republican, which is still one of the highest White GOP %'s in the country.
                D             R
38*.9 = 34.2%     3.8%

62*.35 = 21.7%  40.3%
total:      55.9%    44.1%

MS votes age 65 and older are R+40. MS voters 18-29 are D+3 and that is based on 2014 Exit Polling. A similar pattern occurred in 2012.

Trump goosed the White vote in 2016, which basically delays the inevitable. You cannot goose up a corpse to go vote.

[EngDawg2020]

That matches with the Louisiana Dems 30-30 rule. They need to get 30% of white vote and have the electorate be 30% black.

[Ebsy]

This is the worst thread I have ever read on Atlas.

[Pollster]

The Northeast will be tough for GOP so long as the Dem bases in NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Wilmington and Newark/Camden remain intact.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Midwest is completely gone. It's time for Democrats to form a coalition of upper class voters by being fiscally conservative, use liberal social issues to win over latte liberals, and obviously minorities will always vote in lockstep to stop the racist republicans so we can just take them for granted.

It'll be so beautiful. All our billionaire buddies will love what we have created.

Thomas Frank called this a "criminally stupid strategy" on the part of the Bill Clinton era.  Hillary proved Thomas Frank right, did she not?

[mieastwick]

The Midwest is completely gone. It's time for Democrats to form a coalition of upper class voters by being fiscally conservative, use liberal social issues to win over latte liberals, and obviously minorities will always vote in lockstep to stop the racist republicans so we can just take them for granted.

It'll be so beautiful. All our billionaire buddies will love what we have created.

Thomas Frank called this a "criminally stupid strategy" on the part of the Bill Clinton era.  Hillary proved Thomas Frank right, did she not?

Indeed. In the same chapter, Frank wrote

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/1551/
According to RI's precinct map, Hillary carried Mission Hills, Kansas, by a margin of 17 votes (1077 to 1060).
https://mangomap.com/decision-desk-hq/maps/c4a924ea-08eb-11e7-8ef8-06c182e4d011/US%20Presidential%20Election%20Results%20by%20Precinct,%202008-2016?map_id=60971#
Needless to say, this was a solid Romney (in the upper 60s %) and McCain (in the lower 60s %) area.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Midwest is completely gone. It's time for Democrats to form a coalition of upper class voters by being fiscally conservative, use liberal social issues to win over latte liberals, and obviously minorities will always vote in lockstep to stop the racist republicans so we can just take them for granted.

It'll be so beautiful. All our billionaire buddies will love what we have created.

Thomas Frank called this a "criminally stupid strategy" on the part of the Bill Clinton era.  Hillary proved Thomas Frank right, did she not?

Yes

[Dr. MB]

Midwest definitely (minus Illinois). Northeast no. Not yet at least.

[Idaho Conservative]

The problem for the sunbelt is that is that everything has to be considered relative to the following factors:

1. Southern whites vote Republican at inflated rates in the South because of racially polarized politics
2. This racial polarization is heavily skewed towards Baby Boomers and older voters.
3. Younger voters are going to be progressively less Republican as white voters revert to the mean with generational change.
4. Assuming Democratic support among African American's in the South remains constant (I think it will because that is where Republicans are in power and are cutting their access to voting), this portends an ever deteriorating situation for the Republicans in states like MS, GA and TX.

Therefore, even if Republicans avoided the bleeding among college educated whites, the simple "normalization" or "de-southernization" of College educated whites down to averages in the other regions of the country, portends the reduction in the overal white vote substantial relative to a constant Democratic performance among a solid 35% and growing African American block.

Lets say in MS that African Americans make up 38% of the Electorate and whites are going 80% Republican. 
                D            R
38*.9 = 34.2%     3.8%

62*.2 = 12.4%  49.2%
total:     46.6%    53%

Lets drop it down to 65% Republican, which is still one of the highest White GOP %'s in the country.
                D             R
38*.9 = 34.2%     3.8%

62*.35 = 21.7%  40.3%
total:      55.9%    44.1%

MS votes age 65 and older are R+40. MS voters 18-29 are D+3 and that is based on 2014 Exit Polling. A similar pattern occurred in 2012.

Trump goosed the White vote in 2016, which basically delays the inevitable. You cannot goose up a corpse to go vote.

But gen z is supposed to be really conservative which will keep the south republican.  In the 2016 nationwide mock election for high school Trump won a lot of the south and Minnesota, but lost NC, AZ and TX.

[Frodo]

If 2020 shows the trend continuing, I might come to agree with you.

Otherwise, I'm inclined to treat Trump's wins there as an aberration.  I still have hope.