Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist

[Pericles]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

[Person Man]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

The fundamentals are that he will be re-elected if unemployment is falling in 2020. In 2004 and 2012, it was fair in the former and poor in the latter, but recovering.

We were already recovering in 1992, but unemployment was still rising. Same with 1980.

[dw93]

I agree that this is a kick in the ass for Democrats. With that said, personally, I think if things remain as they are, Trump becomes the first one term President since George HW Bush. However, I wouldn't put it past the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again either.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

It's not ad hominem. Your ability to predict the future relies on your past predictions - which to say, were about as right as telling someone to invest their entire retirement in Enron in 2000.

Everything is refuted by the fact you guys said the same thing about Trump in the 2016 election, and he won. When Bannon transforms the GOP in 2018 Trump will be unstoppable.

People say that was 2016 but the Georgia 6th District race was supposed to be a referendum and Handel won. Roy Moore, a Trumpist, beat an Establishment candidate (proving people like Trumpism but not necessarily Trump).

I need to see something TANGIBLE to believe that Trump is not favored for 2020. When you say "if he makes it to 2020" all I hear is "if he makes it to the first GOP debate" or "if he makes it to Iowa" know what I mean? If you said "the chances are not good he will be re-elected because ..." that's fine but going back to the "Trump will be lucky to X" or "Trump has no chance to do Z!" just gets eye rolls.

For example, you bring up Trump didn't win the popular vote but I could refute that in 2 ways - 1 is Trump didn't spend much money in the 2016 race but will in 2020 and 2 is that many third party voters will come home to Trump. Not all, but a majority.

[Deblano]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

It's not ad hominem. Your ability to predict the future relies on your past predictions - which to say, were about as right as telling someone to invest their entire retirement in Enron in 2000.

Everything is refuted by the fact you guys said the same thing about Trump in the 2016 election, and he won. When Bannon transforms the GOP in 2018 Trump will be unstoppable.

People say that was 2016 but the Georgia 6th District race was supposed to be a referendum and Handel won. Roy Moore, a Trumpist, beat an Establishment candidate (proving people like Trumpism but not necessarily Trump).

I need to see something TANGIBLE to believe that Trump is not favored for 2020. When you say "if he makes it to 2020" all I hear is "if he makes it to the first GOP debate" or "if he makes it to Iowa" know what I mean? If you said "the chances are not good he will be re-elected because ..." that's fine but going back to the "Trump will be lucky to X" or "Trump has no chance to do Z!" just gets eye rolls.

For example, you bring up Trump didn't win the popular vote but I could refute that in 2 ways - 1 is Trump didn't spend much money in the 2016 race but will in 2020 and 2 is that many third party voters will come home to Trump. Not all, but a majority.

People were wrong in the past != People will be wrong in the future.

I'm not even a Democrat (I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians), and even I can assume that the GOP is in trouble of sorts, considering how they can't even negotiate on healthcare or tax reform without its many factions engaging in a massive slapfight. This is nowhere near Ronald Reagan's "Conservative Revolution" that was passing legislation and making deals left and right.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

People were wrong in the past != People will be wrong in the future.

I'm not even a Democrat (I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians), and even I can assume that the GOP is in trouble of sorts, considering how they can't even negotiate on healthcare or tax reform without its many factions engaging in a massive slapfight. This is nowhere near Ronald Reagan's "Conservative Revolution" that was passing legislation and making deals left and right.

So you're idea is just to keep making bad predictions with the hope one comes true? Has that ever worked in history? It's like buying a lottery ticket every week despite living paycheck to paycheck because "well, eventually someone DOES win."

There's being wrong, then there's being so consistently wrong it becomes a parody. Pericles' "Trump has no chance/won't even make it to 2020!" is the 2020 version of this article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

If he said "I believe Trump will have problems getting re-elected in 2020, and here's why" that's fine but when he says "if Trump even makes it to 2020" it just causes me to groan.

ETA: In other words, bring up something we didn't hear in 2016. He says that Trump's base isn't large enough to win in 2020, but that was said in 2016.

Reagan was part of the Establishment and raised taxes, increased the deficit, gave amnesty with no border security/ICE enforcement, supported gun control, etc. etc.

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Bannon will rip through the GOP and get the GOP a supermajority in 2018, causing Trump to be Super Saiya-jin Trump: http://lolworthy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/trump-super-saiyan-meme.jpg

[Deblano]

People were wrong in the past != People will be wrong in the future.

I'm not even a Democrat (I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians), and even I can assume that the GOP is in trouble of sorts, considering how they can't even negotiate on healthcare or tax reform without its many factions engaging in a massive slapfight. This is nowhere near Ronald Reagan's "Conservative Revolution" that was passing legislation and making deals left and right.

So you're idea is just to keep making bad predictions with the hope one comes true? Has that ever worked in history? It's like buying a lottery ticket every week despite living paycheck to paycheck because "well, eventually someone DOES win."

There's being wrong, then there's being so consistently wrong it becomes a parody. Pericles' "Trump has no chance/won't even make it to 2020!" is the 2020 version of this article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

If he said "I believe Trump will have problems getting re-elected in 2020, and here's why" that's fine but when he says "if Trump even makes it to 2020" it just causes me to groan.

Reagan was part of the Establishment and raised taxes, increased the deficit, gave amnesty with no border security/ICE enforcement, supported gun control, etc. etc.

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Bannon will rip through the GOP and get the GOP a supermajority in 2018, causing Trump to be Super Saiya-jin Trump: http://lolworthy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/trump-super-saiyan-meme.jpg

....Well, have fun with your rah-rah pep rally, I guess...

[Pericles]

For crying out loud I didn't predict Trump's impeachment just added a small caveat-which is possible but not probable at this stage. I was saying that Trump is not favored for 2020, and I didn't predict he wouldn't make it. Read the actual post, you idiot!

[Adam Griffin]

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Ayyyy these assholes control every lever of power in this country and they're still talking about "revolution" LOL

LATE EDIT: saving you guys the pain of having to read the remainder of this page:

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[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Ayyyy these assholes control every lever of power in this country and they're still talking about "revolution" LOL

"When they go low - we go high."

Love how Trump has exposed those on the left as sanctimonious.

You're like a bully who gets mad when the bullied kid fights back. "How dare he not let me take his lunch money?!?!?!" When your actions contradict  your ENTIRE belief system changes need to made, no?

[Adam Griffin]

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Ayyyy these assholes control every lever of power in this country and they're still talking about "revolution" LOL

"When they go low - we go high."

Love how Trump has exposed those on the left as sanctimonious.

You're like a bully who gets mad when the bullied kid fights back. "How dare he not let me take his lunch money?!?!?!"

Anybody who knows me knows I have never advocated for self-righteous morality in the face of politics. Y'all deserve to be rat-fycked at every turn and at every opportunity - the Golden Rule and all that.

Who's "the bully" in this scenario, in your opinion? Online randos? The Big Bad Jew Media? The Deep State? Bilderberg? Please share with us all why your party has total control and yet still can't manage to do a goddamn thing other than talk about how great things will be once you finally win!

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

For crying out loud I didn't predict Trump's impeachment just added a small caveat-which is possible but not probable at this stage. I was saying that Trump is not favored for 2020, and I didn't predict he wouldn't make it. Read the actual post, you idiot!

Was the "if he makes it to 2012" even said about Obama? "If he makes it to 2020" implies impeachment/conviction.

"Trump's base is not enough to win re-election."

This is the type of stuff that was said as early as July 2015. Heck, one of your points even favors Trump: "After 2016 it's possible that left-leaning voters weighing up a protest vote will not be so eager to do so,"

Johnson affected Trump far more than Clinton, then you had McMullin.

That's why I am asking for something TANGIBLE. Something we didn't hear in the 2016 race.

People said the Georgia 6th District Race was a referendum on Trump when everyone thought Handel would lose, but she didn't and people dropped that rhetoric.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Anybody who knows me knows I have never advocated for self-righteous morality in the face of politics.

Why lie?

At least be honest. In another thread all the Democrats are telling me they liked Mitt Romney. In another I'm told that they thought Russia was a threat in 2012. In another I'm told they just "knew" Trump would win.

This "Well, I am one of the few who doesn't care about insults!" is said a lot as well. Why lie? Why not just be honest and admit the hypocrisy? I am waiting for one to just be proud of it, then I'll be impressed. This denial is just plain boring and predictable (I knew that's what you'd say).

And the right doesn't control anything - that's what we are going to take care of in 2018. If you think the GOP ever had any intention to repeal Obamacare there's some ocean front property in Atlanta I'd like to sell you.

[Pericles]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

Listen, that's fine - if you're going insult others, just man up and admit it. Call us a-holes, call us snowflakes. Call us deplorable.

Just don't lie about it. Just don't say "When they go low - we go high." Don't complain about Trump's insults. Don't say we shouldn't judge people on how they look then call Trump "Cheeto Jesus." Don't say fat shaming is wrong and call someone a "Fat f-word" like Ana Kasparian did: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPW2zrStWkg

THAT'S what I am asking. This Griffin character IMMEDIATELY went into the "Well I have always been insulting!" mode. That's such a cop out. Just man up and admit.

And if anything, right wing views HELP leftists. Which right wing policies would hurt those on the left?

[Deblano]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

The problem is that his team has both power AND a massive persecution-complex.

It's a lost cause. Partisanship has corrupted his brain like a sugar rush corrupts a hyperactive kid.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

The problem is that his team has both power AND a massive persecution-complex.

It's a lost cause. Partisanship has corrupted his brain like a sugar rush corrupts a hyperactive kid.

The difference is that Trump's motto isn't "When they go low - we go high" or "Love Trumps Hate."

See what I am saying now? When they go from "When they go low - we go high" and "Love Trumps Hate" to "They're aholes who should get rat f-ed in every corner!" it's hard to take them seriously. They prove every caricature about leftists.

[Adam Griffin]

Why lie?

At least be honest. In another thread all the Democrats are telling me they liked Mitt Romney. In another I'm told that they thought Russia was a threat in 2012. In another I'm told they just "knew" Trump would win.

This "Well, I am one of the few who doesn't care about insults!" is said a lot as well. Why lie? Why not just be honest and admit the hypocrisy? I am waiting for one to just be proud of it, then I'll be impressed. This denial is just plain boring and predictable (I knew that's what you'd say).

I don't give a damn what other Democrats have told you. I'm telling you that I endorse any strategy, any tactic, and any solution that blockades, obstructs and/or ultimately eliminates the political power of the GOP in this country - and I'm not going to cry like a little baby when you guys do the same (though I'll certainly concern-troll to anybody I come into contact with in an attempt to undermine you).

And the right doesn't control anything - that's what we are going to take care of in 2018. If you think the GOP ever had any intention to repeal Obamacare there's some ocean front property in Atlanta I'd like to sell you.

Nah, what you mean to say here is that "we're completely incompetent and so I'm gonna pass off ownership of this shat-mess until the next election".

Spoiler alert: ain't gonna get any better! You guys are a fycking embarrassment and the notion of a "conservative who knows show to govern" is an oxymoron in and of itself: in your quest for ideological perfection and purity, you've purged anybody who actually knows the first thing about policy and governance. Turns out when you have nobody but a bunch of people who hate government and scream about ideology alone, you wind up with a bunch of people who don't know how to operate it.

That's why your party has total control and still can't pass even the most basic, widely-agreed upon conservative orthodoxy like tax cuts and repealing socialism.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I don't give a damn what other Democrats have told you. I'm telling you that I endorse any strategy, any tactic, and any solution that blockades, obstructs and/or ultimately eliminates the political power of the GOP in this country - and I'm not going to cry like a little baby when you guys do the same (though I'll certainly concern-troll to anybody I come into contact with in an attempt to undermine you).

For not being what other leftists are you sure act like one. So I wouldn't know.

I was hoping to get something original. Such as a "Yeah I'm a hypocrite so what?" Oh well. Hopefully next time.

Nah, what you mean to say here is that "we're completely incompetent and so I'm gonna pass off ownership of this shat-mess until the next election".

We don't even have 60 votes and people like McCain and Collins are worse than Democrats. RINO hunting is going to be fun in 2018 and 2020.

Spoiler alert: ain't gonna get any better! You guys are a fycking embarrassment and the notion of a "conservative who knows show to govern" is an oxymoron in and of itself: in your quest for ideological perfection and purity, you've purged anybody who actually knows the first thing about policy and governance. Turns out when you have nobody but a bunch of people who hate government and scream about ideology alone, you wind up with a bunch of people who don't know how to operate it.

That's why your party has total control and still can't pass even the most basic, widely-agreed upon conservative orthodoxy like tax cuts and repealing socialism.

Are you a Socialist?

[Adam Griffin]

The difference is that Trump's motto isn't "When they go low - we go high" or "Love Trumps Hate."

See what I am saying now? When they go from "When they go low - we go high" and "Love Trumps Hate" to "They're aholes who should get rat f-ed in every corner!" it's hard to take them seriously. They prove every caricature about leftists.

No, you fycking dolt: there are plenty of people on my side who legitimately believe that pie-in-the-sky, "let's be nice and cordial and respectful" nonsense. I'm not one of them. I fight with them all the time over their inherently inferior and weak beliefs because we no longer live in a world where the GOP respects basic human decency.

I'm sorry that you can't accept that literally everybody in the actual majority of a country of 325 million people doesn't have the exact same views and strategies.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

weak beliefs because we no longer live in a world where the GOP respects basic human decency.

And you do? See? You contradict yourself within the same sentence.

When your actions betray your ENTIRE belief system it's time to change some things. The GOP wants you to find a job, and you hate that.

[Adam Griffin]

We don't even have 60 votes and people like McCain and Collins are worse than Democrats. RINO hunting is going to be fun in 2018 and 2020.

WAAAAAH

WAAAAAH

Excuses, excuses. Your party had the opportunity to eliminate the filibuster (as did mine). Mine didn't because they're spineless cowards. Yours didn't because they're incompetent.

And LOL, you guys have lost more Senate seats due to successful primary challenges in the past 8 years than you've won in the general.  

Besides, it appears somebody hasn't gotten the memo: the Tea Party is dead, "True Conservatives" are absolutely fycking useless post-2014 (say hello to President Cruz for me!) and your Stoßtruppen merely follow whatever Der Führer says is the right approach. The only thing "conservative" remaining in the GOP is the policies that relate to how many minorities and "others" you can figuratively string up. Those policies are the only metric by which you can say conservatives "won" in 2016. Trump was less of a "conservative" on virtually every single issue outside of that.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

We don't even have 60 votes and people like McCain and Collins are worse than Democrats. RINO hunting is going to be fun in 2018 and 2020.

WAAAAAH

WAAAAAH

Excuses, excuses. Your party had the opportunity to eliminate the filibuster (as did mine). Mine didn't because they're spineless cowards. Yours didn't because they're incompetent.

And LOL, you guys have lost more Senate seats due to successful primary challenges in the past 8 years than you've won in the general.  

Besides, it appears somebody hasn't gotten the memo: the Tea Party is dead, "True Conservatives" are absolutely fycking useless post-2014 (say hello to President Cruz for me!) and your Stoßtruppen merely follow whatever Der Führer says is the right approach. The only thing "conservative" remaining in the GOP is the policies that relate to how many minorities and "others" you can figuratively string up. Those policies are the only metric by which you can say conservatives "won" in 2016. Trump was less of a "conservative" on virtually every single issue outside of that.

Once you went full Godwin, the argument is over.

The "omg the Republicans are Nazis!!!!11" is soooo 2012. When you guys called Romney a Nazi, then 4 years later say he was a "decent person," you've lost any credibility.

And RINOs are as bad as Democrats. GOP candidates in 2018/2020 have a choice - they can MAGA or go bye bye. The GOP never intended to repeal Obamacare.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It's sadly normal for them to think like this.

Jade's Law: "The party in power is smug and arrogant, and the party out of power is insane. "

In all seriousness, I'm not certain that Michigan and Pennsylvania are doomed to be GOP forever. Those states voted Republican in 2016 IMO because Hillary was that weak/unpopular as a candidate and Trump's populist rhetoric gave a lot of people in that region hope that he could be a unique Republican that would "bring jobs back" and end "bad trade deals". However, a lot of that optimism from the reluctant Trump voters in the Rust Belt seems to be evaporating now that his touted deal-making skills have fallen flat on their face, and the only way that those states could vote GOP in 2020 is if the Democratic nominee is REALLY bad.

We've earned our arrogance, if anything, what I am typing is far less arrogant anyway.

Anti-Trumpers are now saying quadrupling down on the "he has no chance" crap even after what we went through in 2016. It's arrogance to be absolutely wrong on EVERYTHING and then double down on it.

"Trump will not enter the race"
"Trump will not file his FEC papers"
"Trump won't do well in the polls"
"Trump's McCain comments will surely doom him"
"Trump's ceiling is 25%"
"Trump won't make it a GOP debate"
"Trump is done after the debate"
"Trump's ceiling is 30%"
"Trump has a 1% chance to win the nomination"
"Trump's Megyn Kelly comment will surely ruin him"
"Trump is clearly colluding with the Clintons to help Hillary win"
"Carly Fiorina's surge will surely test Trump to his limits"

This is just the first 3 months and barely scratches the surface.

"Trump will win the popular vote."
"Trump will pass a bill."
"Trump won't have multiple senators publicly attack him."
"Trump's base won't turn on him."

[Adam Griffin]

weak beliefs because we no longer live in a world where the GOP respects basic human decency.

And you do? See? You contradict yourself within the same sentence.

When your actions betray your ENTIRE belief system it's time to change some things. The GOP wants you to find a job, and you hate that.

I'm not one to shy away from effective tactics: literally the whole fycking point I've been making this entire time, dum-dum.

My belief system remains intact...for those who actually believe in its core premise. Just like your ilk who doesn't believe that the core tenets of democracy, freedom and respect can be extended to radical extremists - because they don't believe in the core concept - neither do I.

Equality, justice and tolerance are reserved for those who believe in the concept for all. If you don't participate, you don't get a participation trophy, after all!