Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist
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Author Topic: Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist  (Read 17194 times)
BudgieForce
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« Reply #200 on: October 11, 2017, 06:40:39 PM »

One of my mistakes was undercounting the importance of the fundamentals.

You made the mistake of thinking of Trump as a typical politician.

It should've been clear he wasn't when everyone was predicting the "beginning of the end for Trump" way back on July 20th, 2015 but he kept on trucking along.

I knew he would win the Presidency once he survived mocking that reporter.

I think your underestimating how unpopular Hillary was. Trump was able to squeak out a win because his opponent was just as unpopular. If he faces a conventional politician with decent approval ratings, it doesnt matter if Trump isnt a typical politician.
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Pericles
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« Reply #201 on: October 11, 2017, 06:42:01 PM »

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #202 on: October 11, 2017, 06:43:07 PM »

One of my mistakes was undercounting the importance of the fundamentals.

You made the mistake of thinking of Trump as a typical politician.

It should've been clear he wasn't when everyone was predicting the "beginning of the end for Trump" way back on July 20th, 2015 but he kept on trucking along.

I knew he would win the Presidency once he survived mocking that reporter.

I think your underestimating how unpopular Hillary was. Trump was able to squeak out a win because his opponent was just as unpopular. If he faces a conventional politician with decent approval ratings, it doesnt matter if Trump isnt a typical politician.

I don't buy that because before the election all we heard about how Trump was the worst Hillary was the best she had the best campaign ever omg Trump may not concede, etc. etc.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #203 on: October 11, 2017, 06:44:37 PM »

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

It was never us who were arrogant though.
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cvparty
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« Reply #204 on: October 11, 2017, 06:44:53 PM »

all we heard about how Trump was the worst Hillary was the best she had the best campaign ever omg
yes
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #205 on: October 11, 2017, 06:56:55 PM »

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.

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jfern
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« Reply #206 on: October 11, 2017, 06:57:20 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #207 on: October 11, 2017, 07:00:33 PM »

One of my mistakes was undercounting the importance of the fundamentals.

You made the mistake of thinking of Trump as a typical politician.

It should've been clear he wasn't when everyone was predicting the "beginning of the end for Trump" way back on July 20th, 2015 but he kept on trucking along.

I knew he would win the Presidency once he survived mocking that reporter.

I think your underestimating how unpopular Hillary was. Trump was able to squeak out a win because his opponent was just as unpopular. If he faces a conventional politician with decent approval ratings, it doesnt matter if Trump isnt a typical politician.

I don't buy that because before the election all we heard about how Trump was the worst Hillary was the best she had the best campaign ever omg Trump may not concede, etc. etc.

Hillary had better campaign infrastructure, fact. Hillary had horrendous favorable numbers, fact. Hillary still won the popular vote by 2.8 million votes, fact. I'm not sure where the argument is. Hillary ran the better campaign and got her voters out, she just got the wrong voters out.
 
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #208 on: October 11, 2017, 07:02:45 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #209 on: October 11, 2017, 07:36:01 PM »

It should not be that hard to defeat someone who 60%+ of the electorate is disgusted by. Frankly Trump would probably lose to a ham sandwich.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #210 on: October 11, 2017, 07:37:16 PM »

I looked on Wikipedia and gave all the races to the Dems that they lost by 11% or less. They still did not get a majority.

Yes, I am aware of what you did. Elections don't actually work that way, and its not even that close, as you could see by comparing the results of the 2004/2006 elections or 2008/2010 elections when the House flipped.

Once Democrats are not burdened by sharing a ballot with the nasty woman who drained $1 billion of resources they should be able to more efficiently compete for seats in the House of Representatives.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #211 on: October 11, 2017, 08:10:01 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.
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Pericles
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« Reply #212 on: October 11, 2017, 08:24:53 PM »

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.


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Pericles
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« Reply #213 on: October 11, 2017, 08:26:58 PM »

I recognised Clinton was historically unpopular months before the election. The election was a contest if two historically unpopular candidates and  whoever the news cycle focused on would see their poll numbers drop. Clinton was unlucky that she got the focus at the end. That's why it was close.
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Deblano
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« Reply #214 on: October 11, 2017, 09:03:11 PM »

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

You hit the nail on the head on why he really gets under my skin.

It's one thing to say that a good chunk of Democrats were arrogant, out-of-touch, and wildly optimistic about Clinton's chances.

It's another thing to go into a rah-rah mode claiming that Trump is governing with a mandate from the public, that the GOP have not made any serious mistakes (They couldn't agree on a f***ing healthcare deal), and that the GOP is DESTINED to win electoral and legislative landslides forever and ever while his cartoonish strawman liberals crumple. It's the equivalent of screaming into the crowd "HELL YEAH GUYS! OUR TEAM IS GONNA WIN THIS YEAR! HOO RAH!!! GO TEAM!!!!"

It is a perfect example of how American politics is a team sport, how politicians manipulate people like him into going this "My side is always good, and their side is always bad!". While the fools on the populist right get whipped up into a frenzy, their pockets get picked and America continues to stagnate.
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jfern
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« Reply #215 on: October 11, 2017, 09:04:47 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.

So how'd your pal Jon Ossoff do with his $30 million?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #216 on: October 11, 2017, 09:12:57 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.

So how'd your pal Jon Ossoff do with his $30 million?

Had he actually lived in the district, he might have been a congressmen about now.
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jfern
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« Reply #217 on: October 11, 2017, 09:18:26 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.

So how'd your pal Jon Ossoff do with his $30 million?

Had he actually lived in the district, he might have been a congressmen about now.

Well, that was a known fact before $30 million was spent on him. But many members of Congress don't live in their districts, anyways. Sometimes they don't even carpetbag to the correct district, like Tom McClintock.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #218 on: October 11, 2017, 09:19:48 PM »

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.


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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #219 on: October 11, 2017, 09:20:26 PM »

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.


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Pericles
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« Reply #220 on: October 11, 2017, 09:23:17 PM »

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

You hit the nail on the head on why he really gets under my skin.

It's one thing to say that a good chunk of Democrats were arrogant, out-of-touch, and wildly optimistic about Clinton's chances.

It's another thing to go into a rah-rah mode claiming that Trump is governing with a mandate from the public, that the GOP have not made any serious mistakes (They couldn't agree on a f***ing healthcare deal), and that the GOP is DESTINED to win electoral and legislative landslides forever and ever while his cartoonish strawman liberals crumple. It's the equivalent of screaming into the crowd "HELL YEAH GUYS! OUR TEAM IS GONNA WIN THIS YEAR! HOO RAH!!! GO TEAM!!!!"

It is a perfect example of how American politics is a team sport, how politicians manipulate people like him into going this "My side is always good, and their side is always bad!". While the fools on the populist right get whipped up into a frenzy, their pockets get picked and America continues to stagnate.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #221 on: October 11, 2017, 09:25:13 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.

So how'd your pal Jon Ossoff do with his $30 million?

Had he actually lived in the district, he might have been a congressmen about now.

Well, that was a known fact before $30 million was spent on him. But many members of Congress don't live in their districts, anyways. Sometimes they don't even carpetbag to the correct district, like Tom McClintock.

True, but in a close race like the one for Price's seat, Handel's constant attacks on Ossoff's lack of residency was enough to sway enough people over. I mean, even I don't think I would vote to send someone to Congress if they didn't live in my district.
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jfern
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« Reply #222 on: October 11, 2017, 10:00:18 PM »

If a bunch of white trash loaded up with guns lived in closer proximity to one another, I guarantee you the homicide rate would be even higher than it is among those "disgusting Democrat cities".

Why are you so obsessed with how many white people kill themselves anyway? The highest suicide rate in the world is South Korea, and I don't think "lol dead ASian racists!" no, I hope they improve on that and lower the rate.

Is this the respect you were talking about?

Imagine how crappy your life is when you celebrate the suicide rate of your own countrymen. You need to find employment, it's not the 1%'s fault you don't have a job.

Establishment Democrat 1: "Haha, look at all those rural white males committing suicide!"
Establishment Democrat 2: "Hey, any idea why we aren't doing so well with working class whites?"
Establishment Democrat 1: "Beats me."

WTF are you talking about?

Who knows. Jfern is an idiot loon from CA who doesn't even personally come from the white working class ethos but thinks he has all the solutions for us by pushing for his own warped definition of "Full Socialism" or whatever.

So how'd your pal Jon Ossoff do with his $30 million?

Had he actually lived in the district, he might have been a congressmen about now.

Well, that was a known fact before $30 million was spent on him. But many members of Congress don't live in their districts, anyways. Sometimes they don't even carpetbag to the correct district, like Tom McClintock.

True, but in a close race like the one for Price's seat, Handel's constant attacks on Ossoff's lack of residency was enough to sway enough people over. I mean, even I don't think I would vote to send someone to Congress if they didn't live in my district.

Well, as I said it's pretty common. I think at one point Hawaii's representatives lived in each other's districts. Tom McClintock ran for congress hundreds of miles away.
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Figueira
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« Reply #223 on: October 11, 2017, 11:16:40 PM »

I looked on Wikipedia and gave all the races to the Dems that they lost by 11% or less. They still did not get a majority.

Pretty sure the same would be true if you did that calculation with the 2004 results. Look what happened there.
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Pericles
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« Reply #224 on: October 12, 2017, 12:55:23 AM »

I looked on Wikipedia and gave all the races to the Dems that they lost by 11% or less. They still did not get a majority.

Pretty sure the same would be true if you did that calculation with the 2004 results. Look what happened there.

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have been that bad. But it's not a  projection for 2018 just showing how the  will of the voters in 2016 was distorted by rigged districts
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