Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist

[Pericles]

I thought Hillary was a weak candidate before the election and was justifiably worried that her favorability ratings were so poor.

[Pericles]

Georgia and Arizona are rapidly trending D and Trump's approvals are terrible there. In 2020 a lot of people here may end up looking very foolish-though this is Atlas so most people are foolish.

[Pericles]

Georgia and Arizona are rapidly trending D and Trump's approvals are terrible there. In 2020 a lot of people here may end up looking very foolish-though this is Atlas so most people are foolish.

You had Clinton beating Trump 340-198.

You Trump supporters are the arrogant ones now. The pendulum will swing back and hit you hard.

[Pericles]

This argument is not correct. I'll address it point by point.
1. Trump's base is not enough to win re-election. Sure there are many diehard Trump supporters but they are a minority of the nation as a whole. What 2018 and 2020 will come down to are the reluctant Trump voters and Obama-Trump voters (who aren't always the same people). Furthermore, Trump's base is depressed and unenthusiastic while the Democratic base is energised. Trump's base, contrary to popular belief, is shrinking,  and his support since coming into office has been on a clear downward trend. Furthermore those that strongly support him are shrinking too. Trump's floor is not solid but rather plumbing new depths. As he continues to break his promises in office and disappoint his supporters, his base will grow weaker. https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/amp/
2. Yes, Trump doesn't need to win a majority of the popular vote. But it's very difficult to win on 40% of the vote especially if nearly 50% of the population strongly disapprove. Incumbents who win are generally at least midly popular. Those that aren't, like Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush, aren't re-elected.
3. A strong third-party performance isn't a guarantee in 2020. While disapproval of both parties has risen, so has negative partisanship, and voters won't want to do anything that could let the hated opposition win. After 2016 it's possible that left-leaning voters weighing up a protest vote will not be so eager to do so, as last time it helped Trump win. And if there is a third party surge, it might hurt Trump more than the Democrats. The Republican Party is just as vulnerable, if not more so, to a split than the Democrats.
4. Polls of likely voters do benefit Trump somewhat but even with them he is only at 40% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/). This could matter in a close race, though the shape of the electorate could easily change by 2020. However there is no evidence of a shy-Trump effect, and national polls were off by only 1% in 2016. In battleground states he is stronger but still he is unpopular, and previously solid GOP strongholds like Arizona could be lost. Trump would likely lose on his current support, though he could repeat 2016 if it picks up.

Trump could win. Many things could change in 3 years(though that may be bad for  him-the  strong economy he inherited could suffer a downturn) and it's foolish to treat the outcome as certain either way. But he's not on track to win re-election and if the election were now he'd lose. He has very few legislative accomplishments and is unlikely to get more soon, he has not overcome his unpopularity but become more unpopular, he hasn't delivered on the promises he made and could be the target, rather than the beneficiary, of the populist mood come 2020, and also the Democrats likely will nominate a more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton. He can win, but he's not the favorite. He is the kind of incumbent President that loses re-election(a Republican Jimmy Carter with Nixon mixed in). And that's if he makes it to 2020.

[Pericles]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

[Pericles]

For crying out loud I didn't predict Trump's impeachment just added a small caveat-which is possible but not probable at this stage. I was saying that Trump is not favored for 2020, and I didn't predict he wouldn't make it. Read the actual post, you idiot!

[Pericles]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

[Pericles]

The President should be measured to a higher standard than online posters because they're the f***ing President.

[Pericles]

You literally haven't called me on anything. You've spent this entire time arguing with a fictional/generic leftist and accusing me of whatever they did or said.

Also, learn how to quote, you cretin.

I am not accusing you of anything.

You are SHOWING me it.

Find employment.

>3:27 PM in CA, dude raging online during business hours

>6:27 PM in GA, dude raging online after work

And Republicans say Democrats don't work.

[Pericles]

The caveat was added because it's possible Trump colluded with Russia and could be impeached, and he and politics are very unpredictable. However since we have free speech, you can disagree and say it's not likely. And I made some brilliant points refuting the article that you obviously cannot rebut.

[Pericles]

Democrats could have won the House popular vote by double digits and would still have lost because of gerrymandering. That's a fact.

[Pericles]

Democrats could have won the House popular vote by double digits and would still have lost because of gerrymandering. That's a fact.

Chicago: http://www.illinoisobserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/illinois-4th-district-map-gerrymandering.jpg

And the Republicans would win every election if we had voter ID laws.

Thank you for admitting Voter ID laws are partisan and designed to disenfranchise Democratic voters.

[Pericles]

I bet ahugecat predicted 400 EV for Trump and a large popular vote win.

[Pericles]

I bet ahugecat predicted 400 EV for Trump and a large popular vote win.

348 give or take Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado. I thought for sure he had NV and NH though, and he pretty much did.

I predicted a 0.5 point popular vote win. His margins in Texas and Arizona actually made me a bit nervous.

I also thought the third parties wouldn't have had as much of an impact (around 3%, not 6%).

You got it wrong. I realized third parties would do well though slightly overestimated them. And my prediction was made in early October and I warned other posters not to predict Clinton winning in a landslide. I got the popular vote right. Don't throw stones from glass houses ahugecat you are not superior to anyone here and the voters will soon out you back in your place.

[Pericles]

I didn't use Atlas as much back then so my final prediction was different and closer.

[Pericles]

I looked on Wikipedia and gave all the races to the Dems that they lost by 11% or less. They still did not get a majority.

[Pericles]

One of my mistakes was undercounting the importance of the fundamentals.

[Pericles]

You made a far bigger mistake in supporting Donald Trump. It is clear that he has not lived up to his promises and has done terribly.

[Pericles]

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

[Pericles]

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.

[Pericles]

I recognised Clinton was historically unpopular months before the election. The election was a contest if two historically unpopular candidates and  whoever the news cycle focused on would see their poll numbers drop. Clinton was unlucky that she got the focus at the end. That's why it was close.

[Pericles]

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

You hit the nail on the head on why he really gets under my skin.

It's one thing to say that a good chunk of Democrats were arrogant, out-of-touch, and wildly optimistic about Clinton's chances.

It's another thing to go into a rah-rah mode claiming that Trump is governing with a mandate from the public, that the GOP have not made any serious mistakes (They couldn't agree on a f***ing healthcare deal), and that the GOP is DESTINED to win electoral and legislative landslides forever and ever while his cartoonish strawman liberals crumple. It's the equivalent of screaming into the crowd "HELL YEAH GUYS! OUR TEAM IS GONNA WIN THIS YEAR! HOO RAH!!! GO TEAM!!!!"

It is a perfect example of how American politics is a team sport, how politicians manipulate people like him into going this "My side is always good, and their side is always bad!". While the fools on the populist right get whipped up into a frenzy, their pockets get picked and America continues to stagnate.

[Pericles]

I looked on Wikipedia and gave all the races to the Dems that they lost by 11% or less. They still did not get a majority.

Pretty sure the same would be true if you did that calculation with the 2004 results. Look what happened there.

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have been that bad. But it's not a  projection for 2018 just showing how the  will of the voters in 2016 was distorted by rigged districts

[Pericles]

I recognised Clinton was historically unpopular months before the election. The election was a contest if two historically unpopular candidates and  whoever the news cycle focused on would see their poll numbers drop. Clinton was unlucky that she got the focus at the end. That's why it was close.

- "Historically unpopular months before the election"
- Predicted she'd win 340-198 on the day of the election

what the heck how did you do that

I didn't waste my time making a new prediction for Atlas I just got a prediction from a few weeks ago. But honestly it's pathetic that you can only nitpick my predictions instead if actually defend Trump's record.

[Pericles]

Trump did better than expected, but let's not forget he barely won against Hillary Clinton and lost the popular vote by millions of votes, and this was with the Comey letter and Wikileaks hacking the Clinton campaign. Yes, other factors played an important role too but he didn't run a brilliant campaign or win some Reaganesque landslide.