Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist

[Rookie Yinzer]

Lets look at 2014, Deal beat the best candidate the Dems had by 8% points, 2% higher than his 2010 margin.

in 2002 Perdue won by 5% over Barnes. That doesn't show a trend to democrats to me, and neither does the presidential vote

First point is false. Deal's margin was 2% lower than 2010. He beat Barnes 53-43 and Carter 53-45.

Second point 2002 black voter registration was EXTREMELY low compared to today. There were far more rural whites voting Democratic in North and South Georgia compared to now. Black voter turnout and Dem leaning Asians and Hispanics are slowly catching up to counteract the exodus of white people from the Georgia Democrat Party. The demographics of 2002 are not comparable to today.

I do agree that Georgia needs a statewide win to give legitimacy to its battleground status. Fingers crossed for Evans for Governor and Barrow for SoS.

ETA: I would also concur that Dems have made inroads in counties like Henry, Rockdale, Newton, Douglas which used to be Safe R and now are Safe D in the cases of Rockdale and Douglas, and Likely D in the case of Newton and Henry. They need to flip Cobb and Gwinnett permanently, reduce margins in Cherokee and Forsyth. And find a way not to get blown out in the rural parts. It is a tough task but the Atlanta metro is moving strongly towards the Democrat Party.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Also lol the GOP is not getting a super majority in 2018. It would have gotten one if Hillary was in the white house though.

I am mad at Ayotte and Heck for their stupidity in 2016, but it's still within reach:

Manchin switches to Independent or parties outright - or loses to a Republican, then there's Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And possibly Florida.

If Ayotte and Heck didn't go full stupid then it'd be much easier. But oh well can't cry over spilled milk.

Sherrod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Bob Casey, and Bill Nelson are not losing.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I thought Hillary was a weak candidate before the election and was justifiably worried that her favorability ratings were so poor.

Trump's were far worse though.

Trump won the voters who hated both him and Clinton.

Clinton had depressed turnout in Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin. Black turnout in Milwaukee went from 75% in 2012 to 49% in 2016.

High third party support.

Her LOSS is not THAT shocking after looking at the election day data. There was just intense hubris from the Clinton camp because Trump did things that Presidential candidates just DON'T do.  

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.

[Rookie Yinzer]

the fake sexual assault accusers that came out during the entire month of October.

You were in the room with them and Trump?

[Rookie Yinzer]

the fake sexual assault accusers that came out during the entire month of October.

You were in the room with them and Trump?

They came out a month before the election and disappeared right after.

Also I am surprised it's not mentioned more that the Democrats tried to use sexual assault as a political weapon.

He was elected. You really think sexual assault victims wanted a court battle with a sitting POTUS? And some of the assaults may have statute of limitations and they came forward hoping America would not elect him. Them disappearing means nothing. Is the underage girl he raped who was threatened with death and decided not to come forward fake too?