Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 23, 2019, 10:15:37 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AL-Cygnal/L2: Moore +8
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: AL-Cygnal/L2: Moore +8  (Read 1493 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,881
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 12, 2017, 12:25:41 pm »

Roy Moore - 49%
Doug Jones - 41%

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/10/senate_poll_says_roy_moore_sti.html
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,995
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2017, 12:29:57 pm »

Moore under 50?!
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,328
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2017, 01:00:40 pm »

Yep... he can't seem to hit a double digit lead across multiple polls, which may be indicative that his support is weak/waning. I still doubt Jones could pull this off, just because Moore has an R next to him in AL, regardless of whether he's a horrible human being with even worse policies--let alone fit to be a senatorial candidate.
Logged
UncleSam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,429
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 01:06:24 pm »

With the recent charity revelations I'll bet this gap has closed even further.

Watch Moore blow this in epic fashion
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,619
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 01:19:55 pm »

The idea that Moore was going to get a 20 point win here was always incredibly silly, so it's not surprising to see polling like this. I expect most undecideds to break republican in the end anyways. If we're seeing the race within 5 points in a late november poll then we can talk, but otherwise I don't think Moore has a reason to be concerned. There's no difference between winning by 54%-44% and winning by 59%-39% at the end of the day - either result gets you a senate seat.
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,223


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2017, 02:09:59 pm »

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.
Logged
AtorBoltox
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,841
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2017, 08:08:44 pm »

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.
Exactly, this is his ceiling
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,347
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2017, 08:46:43 pm »

With the recent charity revelations I'll bet this gap has closed even further.

Watch Moore blow this in epic fashion

These "charity revelations" won't close the gap one bit.
Logged
Jacobin American
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,214
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2017, 10:12:51 pm »

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.
Exactly, this is his ceiling

The low 40s are a Democrat's ceiling in Alabama. Worst case scenario for Moore is probably a ~10 point win, with his numbers decreased due to some voters defecting to vote third party.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,025
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2017, 01:35:23 pm »

With the recent charity revelations I'll bet this gap has closed even further.

Watch Moore blow this in epic fashion

According to The Hill, Cygnal's pre-primary polling also found an 8-point race, so apparently there hasn't been a lot of movement.

Anyway, IMO this race is Lean/Likely R simply because special elections can be pretty unpredictable. Moore is going to underperform in December (and I'm pretty sure Strange would have done even worse), but it's still hard to see the Democrats winning this. I don't think Jones is the kind of Democrat who can win in Alabama anyway, but who knows.
Logged
Let Dogs Survive
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2017, 01:51:39 pm »

Can't imagine Moore will get below Roy Blunt's margin last year.

Actually surprised it's this close.
Logged
It's Trotsky Time
The walrus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,583


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2017, 05:34:50 pm »

Democratic enthusiasm effect and the dixie coming home effect will cancel out. High single-digits seems right.
Logged
ERM64man
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,727


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2017, 05:43:35 pm »

Moore will win by double digits, at least 10%. Mack McBride (I) and Ron Bishop (L) will siphon more votes from Jones than Moore.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC