Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader?
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  Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Boris Johnson
 
#2
David Davis
 
#3
Amber Rudd
 
#4
Philip Hammond
 
#5
Ruth Davidson
 
#6
Jacob Rees-Mogg
 
#7
Damian Green
 
#8
Priti Patel
 
#9
Liam Fox (joke option)
 
#10
Michael Gove (see above)
 
#11
Other vaguely prominent Tory
 
#12
Somebody literally nobody has ever heard of
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader?  (Read 5455 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #50 on: October 20, 2017, 05:50:47 AM »

I guess I'll stay up for Portillo.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #51 on: October 20, 2017, 12:18:17 PM »

I want it to be Osborne, but that's unlikely.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #52 on: October 20, 2017, 02:37:04 PM »

I want it to be Osborne, but that's unlikely.

He would be a good choice.  For all those suggesting Rees-Mogg, he is very right wing and I think most Tories realize he would hurt them in urban constituencies and younger voters so doubt they are dumb enough to chose him.  The only way he could win is if a whole bunch of Labour members signed up to support him as he would be a dream candidate for Labour to run against. 

I also don't think moderates face the same difficulty in winning in the British Tories as say they do in the Canadian Tories and especially the GOP.  Both Cameron and May came from the moderate wing and with UKIP largely gone there are no more votes on the right to pick up, any additional votes will come from the centre.  In Canada and the US it is a different story as those further right have been more successful in the US while many on the right in Canada seem to fantasize there is some great untapped right wing mass whereas in the UK I think most realize this doesn't exist.  Both Cameron and May would be too centrist to either win the GOP and Canadian Tory leadership.  Both are like Michael Chong on the political spectrum in the Canadian Tories who was booed and often called a liberal in disguise.  British Tories never got hijacked by the Reform Party like in Canada nor did they have various right wing groups hijack them like the GOP.  May and Cameron are both more centrist than John Kasich who was the most moderate of the GOP and probably too moderate to win the GOP nomination today and in fact they would be more like Arnold Schwarznegger whose views are increasingly marginalized in the GOP.  Someone like Kenneth Clarke can still exist in the Tory tent, whereas in both Canada and the US he would be pushed out especially in the US.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #53 on: October 20, 2017, 06:14:03 PM »

That is possibly the worst take of the Tory party that I've ever read, impressive!

Osbourne spent six years as an incredibly unpopular chancellor associated with all of the austerity and other not so great things that went along with the Cameron years, so he'd be a terrible choice if they actually wanted to win an election.  Also the Tories would never elect someone who ardently campaigned for Remain in the referendum and someone who's stated mission for the last year has been to end the Prime Ministers Premiership.  There are strong, incredibly incomprehensible divisions in the Conservative Party and the way that the party is going right now someone like a Cameron or an Osbourne would have absolutely no chance with the Conservative Party membership - even if they manage to get out of the MPs vote.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #54 on: October 20, 2017, 06:29:16 PM »

That is possibly the worst take of the Tory party that I've ever read, impressive!

Osbourne spent six years as an incredibly unpopular chancellor associated with all of the austerity and other not so great things that went along with the Cameron years, so he'd be a terrible choice if they actually wanted to win an election.  Also the Tories would never elect someone who ardently campaigned for Remain in the referendum and someone who's stated mission for the last year has been to end the Prime Ministers Premiership.  There are strong, incredibly incomprehensible divisions in the Conservative Party and the way that the party is going right now someone like a Cameron or an Osbourne would have absolutely no chance with the Conservative Party membership - even if they manage to get out of the MPs vote.

Osborne is young enough that he still might get his chance.  After a term of one Labour government, I think he could be someone whom might be a good choice, but not now.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2017, 02:27:55 PM »

I don't think the Tories are necessarily never going to vote for a Remainer (that's why I think Rudd has a decent enough chance), but Osborne's attitude since the referendum has been a non-step mission to destabilise the government, which has caused his stock to become toxic even amongst fellow Remain people. Also, it's not like he's some sort of Ken Clarke figure (i.e. toxic in his party, but well-liked in the country as a whole): he was a rather unpopular Chancellor associated with some of the more disliked parts of the Tory Party.

I think often, Miles, you put too much emphasis on a politician's ideology (i.e. where they fall on the spectrum), but really in politics - especially in intra-party disputes - that very rarely matters compared to personality and basic competence.
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mvd10
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« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2017, 04:56:31 PM »

Osborne definitely won't succeed May. He's only been popular in the months after the 2015 election and even then he mainly was riding on the euphoria after the unexpected election victory. But he was a liability in 2010 (even before the austerity lol), he was a liability for the remain campaign, he was a terribly unpopular Chancellor (he always was much less popular than Cameron, I'm not sure whether this is common in British politics though) and a lot of his views are out of touch with the Tory grassroots. I don't say every single Tory member is a clone of Jacob Rees-Mogg but they're definitely not going to vote for Osborne.

And I say this as an Osborne fanboy (I agree with basically everything he's ever said lol, including the brutal takedowns of May).
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2017, 01:14:07 AM »

All of the big name candidates have serious flaws of one sort or another, so I suppose it will be someone relatively unknown like D-Cam was in 2006.
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Slow Learner
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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2017, 12:13:10 PM »

oh my god osborne

no

just no LMAO
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #59 on: October 25, 2017, 08:49:59 AM »

The only plausible choice at the moment is Davis, but I still think May will hold on until 2019 and can get replaced by some random no name who offends no one. Once Brexit talks conclude I think all hell is going to break loose in the Government and Tory ranks, and they'll need someone who somehow doesn't offend people the most
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #60 on: October 25, 2017, 01:46:59 PM »


This. My favorite is JRM but I don't think he's electable. I think one of the two you mentionned or Priti Patel would be the Tories' best option. I'd probably support Davis but either of the other two would be fine as well.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #61 on: November 07, 2017, 02:16:03 PM »

Latest Betfair numbers on next Conservative leader:

Davis 13.8
Rees-Mogg 13.8
Rudd 11.6
Johnson 9.5
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mvd10
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« Reply #62 on: November 07, 2017, 02:55:18 PM »

Gavin Williamson's promotion got a lot of criticism, but he's very young (41) and he already has a very important position (Defence Secretary). Perhaps he could be the next leader?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #63 on: November 07, 2017, 04:54:38 PM »



Alan Partridge for PM!
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #64 on: November 07, 2017, 07:26:26 PM »

I would probably guess David Davis, but I wouldn't rule out it being Boris Johnson. I can't see a remainer getting elected as Tory leader - a sizeable majority of their vote is now leave voters (there member base may be different, however).

It won't be Ruth Davidson, as she's not an MP, and pretty much all her success has been as a result of the unionist vote in Scotland swinging heavily towards the Conservative, rather than any of her policies other than the constitution.

The Tories don't really have anyone who captures the imagination in their ranks though.
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