Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader?

[parochial boy]

Remember that the internal workings of the Conservative party are absolutely rutheless. I think that would prevent any of the extremist or ridiculous candidates from having a real go.

On that basis, probably Amber Rudd or Phil Hammond.

[parochial boy]

The thing is, voters don't fall into neat little buckets like "left wing" or "centre" or whatever. As a lot of recent polling has demonstrated, even Conservative voters have a fairly high propensity to support left wing policies like rail renationalisation or higher taxes on the wealthy (both issues which are given as "proof" of Corbyn being an unelectably extremist left-winger, but both issues on which he has the support of the British public).

The kind of "Centrist" voter who is put off by Corbyn is much more likely to be older and focused on cultural issues, or softer personal qualities like "leadership"; all of which builds much more into the narrative that is spun for, and by, politicians. Much more so than their position on any arbitrary political spectrum.

Britain is hugely polarised, yes, but fundamentally, there are a lot of people who are uninterested, frustrated, and to use the french term "dégagiste" that can come on board, or who will sign up to a narrative. Think of all of Thatcher's landslides even when she was absolutely hated by nearly half the population.

As far as BoJo goes - he is on record saying some pretty Social Darwinist stuff, along the lines of people who are rich are just better people; and has been outed as being pretty incompetent in the fall out of the Brexit referendum (reciting a poem about colonial Burma at a temple in Myanmar...). CP put it perfectly to be honest, in that he has gone from being a loveable dolt to someone who creates a lot of frustration across the spectrum.

And for Sadiq Khan. Three things to remember -
1) The Mayor of London virtually always has high ratings
2) don't fall into the "Centrism = more electable" fallacy. In the last election, both the Tories and Labour increased their support precisely by driving away from the centre. Like I said, narrative outweighs policy.
3) He is vey much a guy who is a great fit for Cosmopolitan, Liberal London; but a terrible fit for the rest of the country (and I don't mean "because he is a Muslim", but more because he is so pro-multiculturalism, and so willing to embrace diversity  - which is somewhat otu of fashion outside the big cities).

[parochial boy]

Oh I didnt mean to say that Khan was a centrist. I was just responding to the point that he is more moderate than Corbyn and therefore more electable. If that was true, Liz Kendall should have become leader - but we all know that was never going to work.

As for "pro-multicultutal" I mean, he, very much to his credit, is very explicit about his views on immigration or that he views diversity as being a good thing, which are opinions that even Corbyn shies away from vocalising. I dont doubt a Khan led Labour party would still win in the heartlands, my point was more that his brand of soft-leftism isnt going to win back the kinds of once upon a time marginal seats around the Thames estuary that are now solidly conservative (and yes I know demographic changes are to blame here - but Labour still needs to win seats in areas that arent solidly working class if it is to form a majority, because the country's demographics have changed)

[parochial boy]

A lot depends on how you define 'marginal'. Rochester and Strood, for example, is certainly winnable in a good election for Labour but would be Tory in an average election (the Tory majority in Medway - the predecessor seat - was about the same in 1992 as it is now). A few in that area (the Thanets for example) actually look more rosy for Labour than they did in 1992.

Rochester and Strood has always been slightly different to the other Medway/Thames Estuary seats though. It's always been that little bit posher and that little bit more "countercultural" (Rochester Castle and all).

The Thanets I think are more in line with the massive swings that occured in many coastal towns (Bourmemouth and Worthing for example) than indicative of any particular Labour resurgence in East Kent.

Looking at the other Thames estuary seats in Kent and Essex, where they swung Labour at all, it was by less than the national average - and places like Dartford still swung towards the Tories.

As for Sadiq Khan, I guess what I am getting at is - in a world where the divide is if Labour should target non-voters (which Corbyn did very well) or the mythical "swing voters", I think Khan is a bit too much of a generic Labour politician to sway either the former, in the way that Corbyn did; or the latter group.

[parochial boy]

Alan Partridge for PM!