This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race. Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.
Two things:
1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania. Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.
2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.
It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.
I think it's going to be 50-45% for Northam. Possibly he's slightly under 50%.
