The last hurrah - Pence and the 2020 campaign

[GlobeSoc]

BREAKING NEWS: TRUMP RESIGNS

SOURCES CLAIM THAT IMPEACHMMENT HAD THE VOTES TO PASS THE SENATE

July 3, 2019 - Pence was shocked by what he read on the TV screen. But this was no time for that. He had a nation to run, and a campaign to start, by the look of things.

"Schedule a speech addressing Trump's resignation tonight"

MCAVERAGEACCURACY POLLING FIRM

GENERAL ELECTION POLLS

Pence - 36% (N/A)
Generic D - 43% (N/A)

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY POLLS

Kamala Harris - 24% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren - 17% (-2)
Cory Booker - 13% (-4)
Andrew Cuomo - 11% (-1)
Sherrod Brown - 7% (+3)

[GlobeSoc]

The 2018 midterms

On the state level, the Democrats gained 13 governorships in a massive wave. Across the country, row offices, state legislatures, and local offices flipped to the democrats. In some states, like New Mexico and Nevada, the republicans were completely shut out. The interior plains shocked the country with democrats forcing a split government in Kansas and Oklahoma. The Midwest swung hard to the democrats, a significant portion of the night's gains. The biggest upset was probably the Tennessee governorship, where the republican lost to a strong democratic nominee.

The house had a D+25 gain. Ojeda won his district, and rural areas formed a significant portion of democratic gains. The Iowa delegation was reversed, and Poliquin lost his seat. While suburban gains existed, they were underwhelming compared to the projections before election night. Technically enough to take the house, it was still effectively a Republican majority, with a few blue dogs and new democrats willing to support moderately conservative bills.

The biggest disappointment for the democrats would probably be the senate. While they did break even, polarization and an unfavorable map prevented them from making significant gains.

This is the landscape Pence is working in. A difficult congress and what appears to be a formidable democratic advantage threaten to derail his ambition. Can he retain the white house for a waning Republican majority, or will he be swept away by the democratic tide?

[GlobeSoc]

meta stuff

You can participate in this timeline! PM me to register as a pundit and contribute to the universe of the campaign. Your coverage may affect the results! When the primary ends, you can suggest a candidate for a tossup senate race, and have a slight bit of control over them, determining their positions, their broad strategy, and other things as we get to that point.

PM me the media organization, real or fictional, you are RPing as, and you will be good to go.

I will run the McAverageAccuracy polling firm, in addition to 4 other pollsters with their own partisan biases and regional quirks. Pundits may PM me requests for polls from any of these firms on any race, any state, and any issue from one of these 5 firms for use in their stories. Do not feel pressured to release polls I PM you; if you are a pundit, you do not need to release poll numbers if they don't fit the narrative you want to push.

If you are a pundit, you can ask for interviews from candidates and write stories based on the events of the campaign. Perhaps I might break an occasional story to a pundit, which depending on if and how you release it may influence the course of the story.

[Jaguar4life]

So is this a election game?

[GlobeSoc]

So is this a election game?

A timeline but with elements of an election game. Ultimately, I control the narrative. You can influence it, if I let you, and you can make the universe fuller with analysis and polls, as well as guess at the tea leaves in both the primary and general election.

[Jaguar4life]

Ok I will like to see Tulsi Gabbard run and actor Ron Perlman run for the Democrats

[GlobeSoc]

Ok I will like to see Tulsi Gabbard run and actor Ron Perlman run for the Democrats

noted

[GlobeSoc]

The state of the economy in 2019

In spite of a slow start to the year prompting worries of the 2018 recession continuing(Q1 2019 had 0.4% growth), Q2 2019 was stronger, with the economy growing by 1.2%. Wage growth remains anemic and inflation low.

In 2018 the economy had veered into recession when Q2 had -0.2% growth, Q3 had -0.7% growth, and Q4 had -0.6% growth. It remains unclear what exactly caused the recession, and many different explanations have been given for it.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Bob Dole thinks Bob Dole should run. Sure, he'll be 97 (and maybe dead), but who won't be?

[The Govanah Jake]

I second a Gabbard run.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm surprised you had Tester go down while Donnelly hung on. Of the 25 gains made, was one of them perhaps IN-02 or 09?

[OBD]

How would the Dems win Oklahoma?

[GlobeSoc]

I am posting a new article tomorrow night on Pence's Trump impeachment/resignation speech, the expanding democratic field, etc.

[GlobeSoc]

How would the Dems win Oklahoma?

Gubernatorial race in a state-level wave, and the Oklahoma GOP is trash. Education has been gutted, too, aiding the dem win

[OBD]

How would the Dems win Oklahoma?

Gubernatorial race in a state-level wave, and the Oklahoma GOP is trash. Education has been gutted, too, aiding the dem win

Huh.

[GlobeSoc]

30 minutes to posting time

[GlobeSoc]

Mike Pence giving speech on Trump, his goals

"Hello America. As you all know, Trump has stepped down and given me the power of this most vital office. Regardless of our political views, I hope that we can come together to move past this crisis of our politics and of our nation. To this end, I will not pardon Trump, so that America can be sure that justice prevails, regardless of the outcome of the judicial process.

As president, I will pursue an agenda to make America work. I will pursue a solution to the crisis of opioids, which have rocked the heartland to its foundation. I will work with any democrat that will listen on pro-growth policies that will put more money in your pocket. Most importantly, I will strive to protect the steel worker in Pittsburgh with policies that put America at the center of our agenda..."

Elizabeth Warren drops out, endorses Sherrod Brown

In a shocking move guaranteed to shake up the primary field, Elizabeth Warren has dropped out, citing a desire to remain in the senate. While the decision may seem odd given her strength, her polling has been on a consistent decline ever since she announced, from a peak of 31% in February. Given her initial reluctance to run, requiring a draft movement for her to enter the race, this move was anticipated for some time by insiders in Washington. The endorsement likely vaults Sherrod Brown, who announced his campaign in April, to become a major contender for the nomination.

Businessman Bob Iger, Senator Amy Klobouchar enter the field

In the ever growing democratic field, what was once a 7 candidate race has grown to 9 candidates of varying stature in the primary. The businessman, who has resigned from his position at Disney, declared a desire for an America "where experts would guide us". Amy Klobouchar, in a speech focused on her midwestern identity, announced to a large crowd in her neighbor state of Iowa.

Tulsi Gabbard mulling a run

3 hours after Trump's impeachment, the house member officially filed to form an exploratory committee for an entrance into the race. Politicians to her left are likely to argue that she is an opportunist, and to the right as unrealistic, if she really decides to enter the race. She currently has negligible support, but a Sanders endorsement could make her a serious candidate. Even if she does, she has a tough road to nomination.

[TheSaint250]

30 minutes to posting time

Umm that was 32 minutes. I’m ashamed

Really liking this!

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Thunderfire Media Polling
We have surveyed a sample of American adults over President Trump's impeachment proceedings, and we have found that 65% believe he is guilty of "high crimes and misdemeanors which warrant removal from office" while 28% believe Trump is innocent and that this is a "witch hunt/conspiracy" against him while only 7% are undecided.
Here is a state map of the results with red representing states where most people are in favor of Trump's impeachment and blue representing states opposed to it.

[GlobeSoc]

META DECREE

THE ROLE OF POLLSTER IS ABOLISHED. CONSULT THE NEW VERSION OF THE RULES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

[GlobeSoc]

Thunderfire Media Polling
We have surveyed a sample of American adults over President Trump's impeachment proceedings, and we have found that 65% believe he is guilty of "high crimes and misdemeanors which warrant removal from office" while 28% believe Trump is innocent and that this is a "witch hunt/conspiracy" against him while only 7% are undecided.
Here is a state map of the results with red representing states where most people are in favor of Trump's impeachment and blue representing states opposed to it.

Your firm will be kept in existence as one of the 5, however, I will make up the data from it myself. If you disagree with this, PM me.

[GlobeSoc]

I will release a poll with one question with every article that I release. For the Pence speech+democratic primary article, this is the poll:

PPP:

Democratic Primary:
Harris - 17%
Kloubochar - 16%
Booker - 14%
Cuomo - 12%
Brown - 11%
Iger - 7%
Gabbard (Volunteered) - 2%

[GlobeSoc]

I hope to write and release an article tonight

[GlobeSoc]

A very short, low intensity article for a low intensity period. Reminder that you can join as a pundit at any time! I also set up an actual support spreadsheet for the primary, so pundits, feel free to ask for state-level primary polls.

Gabbard runs shadow campaign

Ever since filing for an exploratory committee, Gabbard has been staging rallies throughout Iowa and New Hampshire. Sources close to Gabbard say that she is almost certain to enter the race, and is lining up endorsements from various anti-establishment officials right now.

Bullock and Zuckerberg enter campaign

Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders unlikely to run

The two main 2016 primary candidates issued statements several days apart from each other announcing that they will not run. Both of their endorsements will be coveted by the growing democratic field.

Another PPP primary Poll:
Harris - 17%
Brown - 13%
Kloubochar - 11%
Cuomo - 10%
Gabbard - 10%
Iger - 9%
Booker - 6%
Zuckerberg - 4%
Bullock - 3%

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can Kamala Harris resign from Senate to run, and have LA Mayor Eric Garcetti appointed to her seat?