Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[The Dowager Mod]

The old thread reached 2000 posts so here's a new one.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264554.0 <---Old thread.

[KingSweden]

Should be titled "1.2"

[The Dowager Mod]

Eh sue me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh, 1.2. We had this issue last time.

[The Dowager Mod]

Ugh, 1.2. We had this issue last time.

That's why I did it heh.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Thank god. I can now spend my free time obsessing over 1 point movements in the President's approval rating instead of only sh*tposting. Killing two birds with one stone.

Why wern't you able to do that in the old thread?

[pbrower2a]

My most recent map of approval and disapproval. The most recent changers involve Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania.  

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Trump is more popular in Montana than Nebraska?

Well alrighty.

[American2020]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/10/trump-approval-dips-in-every-state-though-deep-pockets-of-support-remain/

[pbrower2a]

Trump is more popular in Montana than Nebraska?

Well alrighty.

No. I think I show the opposite between the two states.  The number is for disapproval which I consider more critical than approval with a troubled Presidency. You may have misread my map.

It is possible to be underwater 37-45 early in a term of office and still win re-election by turning undecided voters into voters for one, which one can do through achievements and campaigning. Being down 47-52 implies that one must change disappointment to satisfaction in a significant number of voters, which is far more difficult.

Rural votes matter greatly in Montana and Nebraska. A recent poll shows rural voters nearly split in approval and disapproval of the President. It's questionable that a majority of the rural vote in northern states has gone Democratic since at least 1964. when Goldwater lost in a landslide. If the rural vote splits 50-50, then the vote goes D for farm country and R in ranch country, or vice-versa. I would guess that Trump would do worse in farm country than in ranch country because farm country includes lots of dairy workers who do factory-style work under much the same conditions as an industrial proletariat. Like industrial workers, they do not have their employers looking  out for them in ensuring that they have housing or such supplies as food. Ranch hands, in contrast, have to be taken care of because ranches are more isolated.

If a significant part of the voting public splits evenly between A and B, then an edge for A by everyone else gives the advantage to A.    Figuring that Trump is doing badly among urban and suburban voters on the whole, I would guess at this stage that

NE-01 (eastern Nebraska, including Lincoln) goes to Trump's Democratic opponent because the agriculture in NE-01 is largely farming, and Lincoln, which is not a giant city, leans D in most years.

NE-02 (greater Omaha) has practically no rural population, so if Trump is doing badly throughout urban America, then he loses this district.

NE-03, comprising central and western Nebraska and such small cities as Scottsbluff and Grand Island, is ranch country as is most of rural America between about the 100th meridian of longitude and either the Cascades or the Sierra Nevada. This is one of the most Republican-leaning districts in the USA, and if Trump doesn't win its electoral vote he might be skunked altogether.

OK. Montana, by contrast, has some Democratic-voting areas, as attested by some elections of Democrats to the Senate and the Governorship. But the agriculture is largely ranching. Trump could lose Nebraska at large and win Montana.

Two caveats:

1. I assume that approval polls generally correlate closely with voting results in the upcoming election, with elected incumbents typically gaining about 6% from approval to their vote share, except that 100-disapproval sets a ceiling.

2. We are still about three years away from the election, and much can happen between now and then.      

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/10/trump-approval-dips-in-every-state-though-deep-pockets-of-support-remain/

Looking at net approval by electoral votes we find that in January we find that President Trump was ahead in parts of America with all but 88 electoral votes. If net approval decided the election, then President Trump would have won the electoral college 448-90 ahead . He was behind only in California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. That would be much like a victory of Bush I over Dukakis.

To be sure, the President was barely above water in such states as New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, and New Mexico... but that would change.

In February, such states as Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Connecticut, and New Hampshire slip into the negative category and New Jersey goes even. This now gives Trump a still-overpowering edge of 384-129 with New Jersey  (14) even.

In March he gets Colorado 'back', but loses New Jersey outright. That leaves an edge of  393-145 with no ties.  No big change.   

In April he loses a hold of Colorado. Minnesota and Maine drop off. (Surprisingly he still has a big hold on Illinois and smaller holds on New York and Virginia). For the first time he is behind in a state that he won, if by the barest margin (that is, Michigan). The edge is by then 365-173, which is (by a strange coincidence) what Obama won by in 2008. Trump would project to win by a bare landslide.

In May, Illinois and New York slip decisively away. Delaware, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio also slip into the D camp. Pennsylvania goes even. It's now 259-259 with Pennsylvania as a tie. We have a horse race.

In June, Pennsylvania goes D, breaking the tie. Nevada and New Mexico slip away from Trump, if barely. Trump still has Virginia, barely... and Florida. An election based upon net approval would now go 290-248 for a Democrat.   

In July, Nevada and Ohio go back to net zero. But Arizona, Florida, Indiana (), and Virginia go D. It's now 330-184 with 24 ties. With the ties going to Trump, that's like a Democrat winning like Obama in 2016. But it is clearly the Democrat this time.   

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 10/9

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: High Point University, Sep 28-Oct 6, 404 adults (346 RV)

Trump approval is 35/51 among adults, 38/51 among RV.

Right track/wrong direction is 18/70 and 19/68.

Gov. Cooper approval is 44/30 and 47/31.

Sen. Burr: 29/34 and 32/35.

Sen. Tillis: 33/35 and 35/36.

[Dr. Arch]

North Carolina: High Point University, Sep 28-Oct 6, 404 adults (346 RV)

Trump approval is 35/51 among adults, 38/51 among RV.

Right track/wrong direction is 18/70 and 19/68.

Gov. Cooper approval is 44/30 and 47/31.

Sen. Burr: 29/34 and 32/35.

Sen. Tillis: 33/35 and 35/36.

Wow, that's really ugly for Trump considering it's NC. Cooper is doing great.

[Ebsy]

The President is not doing so hot since people started hearing about his response to Hurricane Maria.

[BlueSwan]

Will be interesting to see the effect of the Corker debacle. I think this might be the kind of stuff that could push some holdout establishment republicans to the disapprove column.

[Pericles]

Those ratings are starting a new downward plunge.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: High Point University, Sep 28-Oct 6, 404 adults (346 RV)

Trump approval is 35/51 among adults, 38/51 among RV.

Right track/wrong direction is 18/70 and 19/68.

Gov. Cooper approval is 44/30 and 47/31.

Sen. Burr: 29/34 and 32/35.

Sen. Tillis: 33/35 and 35/36.

Wow, that's really ugly for Trump considering it's NC. Cooper is doing great.

A Republican must win North Carolina outright to win a Presidential election. I'll go with registered voters, but note that I have no distinctions below 40% approval anyway.  I see
100% less disapproval as the likely ceiling.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Regarding the Morning Consult poll, Trump should be afraid. It's a pollster he has touted on account that it has been one of the more favorable polls to him over the past few months. Specifically it shows that Florida and Michigan are the biggest drops among states he won. Couple that with the potential of over 100,000 Puerto Ricans relocating to Florida and Trump loses in 2020.

[bagelman]

Trump's electoral potential based on the September results for morning consult. using 270 to win because of how I can select lean and likely D/R states.



based on pbrower2a's most recent map

[Fuzzy Bear]

I will say this:  It is not good for a nation to have so little positive regard for its leaders as we have now.

If Trump is so lowly regarded, but more highly regarded than his opponent(s), that's not good news for our overall condition as a nation.

[Pericles]

I will say this:  It is not good for a nation to have so little positive regard for its leaders as we have now.

If Trump is so lowly regarded, but more highly regarded than his opponent(s), that's not good news for our overall condition as a nation.

It's not good for the nation to have bad leaders, period. Leaders should up their game, not make voters lower their standards.

[pbrower2a]

I will say this:  It is not good for a nation to have so little positive regard for its leaders as we have now.

The problem is that we have leaders so unworthy of positive regard. That goes beyond politics to Corporate America and cultural 'creators'.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We have had better. It is easy to forget that a year ago we still had a good President.  The President's opponents don't get much opportunity for leadership when we effectively have one Party in meaningful power. Democrats can now only lie low for another year for congressional and gubernatorial races and for bigger prizes (the Presidency and the Senate) in 2020.

So far I see Donald Trump doing little that gets a President re-elected.   

[Badger]

I will say this:  It is not good for a nation to have so little positive regard for its leaders as we have now.

If Trump is so lowly regarded, but more highly regarded than his opponent(s), that's not good news for our overall condition as a nation.

It's not good for the nation to have bad leaders, period. Leaders should up their game, not make voters lower their standards.

Here here!

[JA]

Based on the Morning Consult poll released today, these have been Trump's net approval changes month-by-month from January through September.

Column 01: Trump's 2016 Percentage of the vote
Column 02: Trump's Net Percentage of the vote
Column 03: January Approval
Column 04: January Net Approval
Column 05: January Net Approval Departure from National Average
Column 06: September Approval
Column 07: September Net Approval
Column 08: September Net Approval Departure from National Average
Column 09: Change from January to September Net Approval (Swing)
Column 10: Change from January to September Net Approval Departure from National Average (Trend)
Column 11: Change from Net Popular Vote to September Net Approval (Swing)
Column 12: Change from Net Popular Vote to September Net Approval Departure from National Average (Trend)

46% | -02% | 49% | +10% | +00% | 43% | -09%  | +00% | -19%  | +00% | -07%  | +00% | US

East North Central

38% | -17%  | 49% | +09% | -01%  | 37% | -21%  | -12%  | -30%  | -11%  | -04%  | +03% | IL
56% | +19% | 55% | +22% | +14% | 50% | +05% | +14% | -17%  | +00% | -14%  | -07%  | IN
47% | +00% | 48% | +07% | -06%  | 40% | -15%  | -06%  | -22%  | +00% | -15%  | -08%  | MI
51% | +08% | 51% | +14% | +04% | 46% | -03%  | +06% | -17%  | +02% | -11%  | -04%  | OH
47% | +01% | 47% | +06% | -04%  | 41% | -12%  | -03%  | -18%  | +01% | -13%  | -06%  | WI

West North Central

51% | +09% | 49% | +09% | -01%  | 42% | -11%  | -02%  | -20%  | -01%  | -20%  | -13%  | IA
56% | +20% | 56% | +24% | +14% | 50% | +05% | +14% | -19%  | +00% | -15%  | -08%  | KS
45% | -01%  | 46% | +03% | -07%  | 39% | -17%  | -08%  | -20%  | -01%  | -16%  | -09%  | MN
56% | +18% | 53% | +19% | +09% | 49% | +05% | +14% | -14%  | +05% | -13%  | -06%  | MO
59% | +25% | 56% | +23% | +13% | 50% | +04% | +13% | -19%  | +00% | -21%  | -14%  | NE
63% | +36% | 56% | +23% | +13% | 51% | +07% | +16% | -16%  | +03% | -29%  | -22%  | ND
62% | +30% | 54% | +21% | +11% | 51% | +07% | +16% | -14%  | +05% | -23%  | -16%  | SD

Middle Atlantic

41% | -14%  | 46% | +01% | -09%  | 38% | -19%  | -10%  | -20%  | -01%  | -05%  | +02% | NJ
37% | -22%  | 49% | +08% | -02%  | 37% | -22%  | -13%  | -30%  | -11%  | +00% | +07% | NY
48% | +01% | 49% | +10% | +00% | 45% | -06%  | +03% | -16%  | +03% | -07%  | +00% | PA

New England

41% | -14%  | 47% | +05% | -05%  | 36% | -23%  | -14%  | -28%  | -09%  | -09%  | -02%  | CT
45% | -03%  | 48% | +08% | -02%  | 42% | -10%  | -01%  | -18%  | +01% | -07%  | +00% | ME
33% | -27%  | 43% | -04%  | -14%  | 32% | -31%  | -22%  | -27%  | -08%  | -04%  | +03% | MA
46% | -01%  | 45% | +01% | -09%  | 38% | -19%  | -10%  | -20%  | -01%  | -18%  | -11%  | NH
39% | -15%  | 42% | -04%  | -14%  | 35% | -26%  | -17%  | -22%  | -03%  | -11%  | -04%  | RI
30% | -27%  | 43% | -02%  | -12%  | 33% | -29%  | -20%  | -27%  | -08%  | -02%  | +05% | VT

East South Central

62% | +28% | 62% | +36% | +26% | 59% | +23% | +32% | -13%  | +06% | -05%  | +02% | AL
63% | +30% | 61% | +34% | +24% | 54% | +14% | +23% | -20%  | -01%  | -16%  | -09%  | KY
58% | +18% | 61% | +34% | +24% | 54% | +13% | +22% | -21%  | -02%  | -05%  | +02% | MS
61% | +26% | 61% | +34% | +24% | 53% | +11% | +20% | -23%  | -04%  | -15%  | -08%  | TN

South Atlantic

42% | -11%  | 49% | +08% | -02%  | 38% | -20%  | -11%  | -28%  | -09%  | -09%  | -02%  | DE
04% | -87%  | 30% | -31%  | -41%  | 17% | -60%  | -51%  | -29%  | -10%  | +27% | +34% | DC
49% | +02% | 56% | +22% | +12% | 48% | +01% | +10% | -21%  | -02%  | -01%  | +06% | FL
50% | +05% | 53% | +18% | +08% | 48% | +00% | +09% | -18%  | +01% | -05%  | +02% | GA
34% | -26%  | 38% | -12%  | -22%  | 33% | -29%  | -20%  | -17%  | +02% | -03%  | +04% | MD
50% | +04% | 53% | +17% | +07% | 47% | -01%  | +08% | -18%  | +01% | -05%  | +02% | NC
55% | +14% | 56% | +25% | +15% | 51% | +07% | +16% | -18%  | +01% | -07%  | +00% | SC
44% | -06%  | 49% | +08% | -02%  | 42% | -11%  | -02%  | -19%  | +00% | -05%  | +02% | VA
68% | +42% | 62% | +37% | +27% | 60% | +24% | +33% | -13%  | +06% | -18%  | -11%  | WV

West South Central

61% | +27% | 59% | +30% | +20% | 54% | +14% | +23% | -16%  | +03% | -13%  | -06%  | AR
58% | +20% | 59% | +31% | +21% | 57% | +20% | +29% | -11%  | +08% | +00% | +07% | LA
65% | +36% | 61% | +34% | +24% | 56% | +17% | +26% | -17%  | +02% | -19%  | -12%  | OK
52% | +09% | 54% | +21% | +11% | 51% | +07% | +16% | -14%  | +05% | -02%  | +05% | TX

Mountain

48% | +03% | 55% | +19% | +09% | 44% | -07%  | +02% | -26%  | -07%  | -10%  | -03%  | AZ
43% | -05%  | 45% | +01% | -09%  | 41% | -13%  | -04%  | -14%  | +05% | -08%  | -01%  | CO
59% | +32% | 59% | +29% | +19% | 55% | +14% | +23% | -15%  | +04% | -18%  | -11%  | ID
56% | +21% | 57% | +25% | +15% | 50% | +05% | +14% | -20%  | -01%  | -16%  | -09%  | MT
46% | -02%  | 49% | +10% | +00% | 44% | -08%  | +01% | -18%  | +01% | -06%  | +01% | NV
40% | -08%  | 52% | +17% | +07% | 43% | -10%  | -01%  | -27%  | -08%  | -02%  | +05% | NM
45% | +18% | 58% | +27% | +17% | 52% | +10% | +19% | -17%  | +02% | -08%  | -01%  | UT
68% | +46% | 63% | +40% | +30% | 61% | +26% | +35% | -14%  | +05% | -20%  | -13%  | WY

Pacific

51% | +14% | 55% | +25% | +15% | 52% | +10% | +19% | -15%  | +04% | -04%  | +03% | AK
31% | -30%  | 42% | -06%  | -16%  | 36% | -22%  | -13%  | -16%  | +03% | +08% | +15% | CA
30% | -32%  | 38% | -14%  | -24%  | 31% | -33%  | -24%  | -19%  | +00% | -01%  | +06% | HI
39% | -11%  | 45% | +02% | -08%  | 39% | -18%  | -09%  | -20%  | -01%  | -07%  | +00% | OR
37% | -16%  | 45% | +01% | -09%  | 37% | -22%  | -13%  | -23%  | -04%  | -06%  | +01% | WA

Change from January to September Net Approval Departure from National Average (Trend)

Change from Net Popular Vote to September Net Approval Departure from National Average (Trend)