Trump approval ratings thread 1.2
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  Trump approval ratings thread 1.2
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.2  (Read 180888 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #75 on: October 18, 2017, 12:03:24 PM »

Gallup, 10/17

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+1)

Reversed yesterday's change.
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windjammer
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« Reply #76 on: October 18, 2017, 12:27:51 PM »

His unpopularity has been quite stable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #77 on: October 19, 2017, 08:14:22 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 10:40:52 PM by pbrower2a »

Polling data based upon Morning Consult, Note that this data is more flattering, on the whole, to President Trump than what I already had.

I now have restored electoral votes to the states on the approval map.




Trump disapproval, net negative and

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

44-49%
50-55%
56% or higher

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #78 on: October 19, 2017, 09:14:15 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2017, 12:30:07 PM by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Virginia

October 18, 2017

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              35%    81%     4%    34%    40%    31%    36%    55%
Disapprove           62     15     96     65     57     67     63     41
DK/NA                 2      4      1      2      3      2      1      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non-
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              49%    38%    44%    14%
Disapprove           49     60     54     83
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3
 
 
Horrid numbers for President Trump, especially among people with college degrees, white women, and minorities.  This is probably the last poll that we get from Virginia before the gubernatorial election, and the Presidential approval is an afterthought in contrast to the gubernatorial election , where Northam (D) holds a 53-39 lead over Gillespie (R).  

This poll post-dates the data from Morning Consult, so I can update the polling maps.

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.




Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
50-55%
56% or higher

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower






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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #79 on: October 19, 2017, 09:41:48 AM »

NBC/SurveyMonkey, 5047 adults, Oct 13-17 (change from Sep 23-26)

Approve 40 (-3)  Strongly 23 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+4) Strongly 48 (+5)
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Virginiá
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« Reply #80 on: October 19, 2017, 12:35:16 PM »

Gallup (October 18th)

Approve 36% (nc)
Disapprove 59% (nc)
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Blackacre
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« Reply #81 on: October 19, 2017, 12:38:25 PM »

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Fixed the maps so they look a little better. If we don't have any specific data for the individual districts, we shouldn't be showing them in grey. The disapproval map, I set the year to 1984 so ME and NE can have their disapproval numbers as electoral votes.

Also, wow yeah that map is a lot sadder than the previous one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #82 on: October 19, 2017, 03:22:38 PM »

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Fixed the maps so they look a little better. If we don't have any specific data for the individual districts, we shouldn't be showing them in grey. The disapproval map, I set the year to 1984 so ME and NE can have their disapproval numbers as electoral votes.

Also, wow yeah that map is a lot sadder than the previous one.

The single districts might be shown some time in polls of Maine and Nebraska -- not that those states generally decide an election. But ME-02 went for Trump (unlike the other three electoral votes of Maine) in 2016, and NE-02 went for Obama in 2008 (unlike the other four electoral votes for Nebraska that year.

To be sure it is hard to imagine how ME-02 goes Republican except in an overall Republican win or how NE-02 goes Democratic except in a Democratic blowout. Maybe I can set the year to 1984 until I see any polls of individual districts in Maine or Nebraska. Both states, let alone their individual districts, get polled rarely. 
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Blackacre
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« Reply #83 on: October 19, 2017, 03:56:22 PM »

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Fixed the maps so they look a little better. If we don't have any specific data for the individual districts, we shouldn't be showing them in grey. The disapproval map, I set the year to 1984 so ME and NE can have their disapproval numbers as electoral votes.

Also, wow yeah that map is a lot sadder than the previous one.

The single districts might be shown some time in polls of Maine and Nebraska -- not that those states generally decide an election. But ME-02 went for Trump (unlike the other three electoral votes of Maine) in 2016, and NE-02 went for Obama in 2008 (unlike the other four electoral votes for Nebraska that year.

To be sure it is hard to imagine how ME-02 goes Republican except in an overall Republican win or how NE-02 goes Democratic except in a Democratic blowout. Maybe I can set the year to 1984 until I see any polls of individual districts in Maine or Nebraska. Both states, let alone their individual districts, get polled rarely. 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Until we get an individual poll of ME-01, ME-02, or NE-02, (NE-01 and NE-03 probably aren't going to give us any surprises) it's better to set the year to 1984.
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henster
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« Reply #84 on: October 19, 2017, 04:01:18 PM »

Hmm will Dems contest ME-02 in 2020? It is pretty cheap to advertise in and not too far from NH.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #85 on: October 20, 2017, 08:33:00 AM »

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Oct 12-18, 14717 adults (this isn't the same SurveyMonkey poll that was posted yesterday, which focused on national security)

Approve 39 (-2)  Strongly 21 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)  Strongly 48 (+3)
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swf541
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« Reply #86 on: October 20, 2017, 09:36:57 AM »

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Oct 12-18, 14717 adults (this isn't the same SurveyMonkey poll that was posted yesterday, which focused on national security)

Approve 39 (-2)  Strongly 21 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)  Strongly 48 (+3)

that strongly rating is abysmal
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #87 on: October 20, 2017, 12:03:22 PM »

Gallup

Approve 35% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #88 on: October 20, 2017, 12:07:16 PM »


The movement over the last week seems like a trend and not just noise.  Post-Maria news having a real effect?
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swf541
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« Reply #89 on: October 20, 2017, 12:38:06 PM »


The movement over the last week seems like a trend and not just noise.  Post-Maria news having a real effect?

The niger stuff isnt helping either
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #90 on: October 20, 2017, 01:07:33 PM »


The movement over the last week seems like a trend and not just noise.  Post-Maria news having a real effect?

Post-maria + his Niger blunders aren't helping. I won't be surprised if we begin to see polls showing a consistent 60%+ disapproval rating real soon.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #91 on: October 20, 2017, 02:20:54 PM »

I doubt Niger is going to have any effect on Trump's approval numbers. Unlike Maria, it seems like one of those things that will be seen differently by his base and his opposition.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #92 on: October 20, 2017, 03:00:09 PM »

I doubt Niger is going to have any effect on Trump's approval numbers. Unlike Maria, it seems like one of those things that will be seen differently by his base and his opposition.

I concur. People who thought him cruel, hollow, incompetent,  reckless, unfeeling, or crazy will simply have their beliefs confirmed by another bad incident. Support that remains for this President is extremely firm. Something has to hurt his firmest supporters before they turn against him. The economy is still OK, but it is unlikely to improve. People are not going to have trouble with him on foreign affairs until American troops get massacred in a war that the President provoked.

God help the Korean people should our President provoke a mercurial dictator to loose his "fateful lightning".   
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President Johnson
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« Reply #93 on: October 21, 2017, 04:52:33 AM »

How is it that Trump is not underwater in Florida? The reverse of the Cuban Thaw?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #94 on: October 21, 2017, 09:01:18 AM »

Morning Consult polling is slightly more favorable to Trump than other polling. Contrast how different its polling is for Virginia, which has some similarities to Florida, to that of Quinnipiac.

But 48-47 in polling involving Florida, and we see surprisingly little polling for Florida aside from polling data of 50-state polls, is statistical noise.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #95 on: October 21, 2017, 01:12:27 PM »

Gallup, 10/20

Approve 36 (+1)
Disapprove 59 (-1)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #96 on: October 21, 2017, 05:52:57 PM »

Morning Consult polling is slightly more favorable to Trump than other polling. Contrast how different its polling is for Virginia, which has some similarities to Florida, to that of Quinnipiac.

But 48-47 in polling involving Florida, and we see surprisingly little polling for Florida aside from polling data of 50-state polls, is statistical noise.

I imagine we'll see a lot more state level polling after the November 2017 elections. Particularly of states with competitive senate races

There are quite a few states -- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #97 on: October 22, 2017, 12:13:44 PM »

Gallup, 10/21

Approve 36 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (-1)
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Virginiá
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« Reply #98 on: October 23, 2017, 02:15:48 PM »

Gallup (October 22nd)

Approve 36% (nc)
Disapprove 57% (-1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #99 on: October 23, 2017, 04:45:07 PM »

Harvard-Harris, Oct 14-18, 2159 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (-3)  Strongly 19
Disapprove 58 (+3)  Strongly 45
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