Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Inmate Trump]

NBC/WSJ poll of 438 "Trump counties" that either flipped from D to R in 2016 or saw a significant surge to Trump.  Overall, he won these counties 57%-37%.

32% say the country is better off since Trump became President.  41% say it's worse off.

Trump's approval in these counties is 48/50.  In a similar poll in July, it was 50/46. 

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Other favorability ratings in these counties:

Barack Obama 48/37
Bernie Sanders 42/31
Hillary Clinton 23/60
Nancy Pelosi 16/44
Mitch McConnell 11/35

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

[Brittain33]

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

I had the same reaction. This feels like an insignificant slip since earlier this year. I expected more.

[Sir Mohamed]

NBC/WSJ poll of 438 "Trump counties" that either flipped from D to R in 2016 or saw a significant surge to Trump.  Overall, he won these counties 57%-37%.

32% say the country is better off since Trump became President.  41% say it's worse off.

Trump's approval in these counties is 48/50.  In a similar poll in July, it was 50/46. 

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Other favorability ratings in these counties:

Barack Obama 48/37
Bernie Sanders 42/31
Hillary Clinton 23/60
Nancy Pelosi 16/44
Mitch McConnell 11/35

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

Interesting that McConnell has (obviously) such low name rec.

[BudgieForce]

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

I had the same reaction. This feels like an insignificant slip since earlier this year. I expected more.

Trump's approval ratings havent dropped all that much since June so its not surprising there hasnt been a huge change in swing counties.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (November 6th)

Approve 37% (nc)
Disapprove 57% (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 11/6

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump made the promises that he had to make to get elected, but

(1) he made contradictory promises, which ensures that he cannot meet the desires of those to whom he made the promises

(2) he played up ethnic resentments as no politician since George Wallace did in 1968. Civic concord is impossible where systemic racism is normal, unless there be complete repression of oppressed people as there was in "Kukluxistan" or Apartheid-era South Africa.

Americans are much less bigoted than they were when Donald Trump was a wee lad, although the overt bigots may be nastier than ever because racist ideologies attract sociopathic personalities.

(3) his policies can hurt some of those who voted for him while giving them nothing but vague promises in return. Donald Trump fails to recognize that working-class pay makes the consumer society possible. Paper profits divorced from the consumer society create a bubble that destroys the capital that it devours.

[henster]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

[Dr. Arch]

I also suspect that the monstrous results for Democrats yesterday will make the electorate less confident about Trump and his politics, which may catalyze a larger drop in approvals in the coming weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 11/7

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

[IceSpear]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

The current average has him at 38-57 nationally, and his rating in VA is no doubt more than 2 points less than nationally. 38-57 is using many polls that poll all adults though, so if you adjust for likely voters it's probably more like 43-55, which tracks well with the fact that he got 46% of the vote and very few of those 46% have abandoned him.

[pbrower2a]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

The current average has him at 38-57 nationally, and his rating in VA is no doubt more than 2 points less than nationally. 38-57 is using many polls that poll all adults though, so if you adjust for likely voters it's probably more like 43-55, which tracks well with the fact that he got 46% of the vote and very few of those 46% have abandoned him.

An exit poll is a poll of people who actually voted.  That would be very close to a poll of 'likely voters'. A problem arises with almost any exit poll: however relevant it is to the current election the barrier of time makes it a poor estimation of the next election.  

Neither New Jersey nor Virginia is (the latter may have recently been) a microcosm of America. Election 2016 suggests that Virginia is about D+3. Ed Gillespie ran a horrible campaign except at appealing to the Virginia voters of the least urban parts of the state. But the mainstream Republicans (think of Richard Lugar) are themselves a vanishing lot.

It could also be that Virginia is one of the most anti-populist states in America. Note that Trump lost it while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio. When you figure that Democratic nominees for President did not win Virginia in any but one (the LBJ blowout) between Truman in 1948 and Obama in 2008, Virginia may be the worst state in which to be a demagogue. Obama was no populist, but Trump ran as one.

It's hard to imagine any Republican winning the 14 electoral votes of New Jersey, so asking what states are electorally most similar to New Jersey won't say much about America as a whole.  

So what states are most similar to Virginia? If you look at the states that Trump barely lost (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico), then I would have to go with Colorado. Minnesota seems to be drifting R if you look only at electoral results.

Of states that Trump won barely, Michigan probably has the most similar ethnic mix, but very different economic realities.

...If I can get the exit polls of states that had significant statewide elections, I can use them on my map.  It's as much three years to the Presidential election of 2020 in any states other than New Jersey or Virginia, too.

...Ed Gillespie is not Donald Trump.   

[BudgieForce]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

The current average has him at 38-57 nationally, and his rating in VA is no doubt more than 2 points less than nationally. 38-57 is using many polls that poll all adults though, so if you adjust for likely voters it's probably more like 43-55, which tracks well with the fact that he got 46% of the vote and very few of those 46% have abandoned him.

43-55 makes sense, but I think your being a tad generous. If yesterday showed us anything, it's that Trumps base has remained firm but the tepid support he got from college educated whites has collapsed.

[Frodo]

Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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[IceSpear]

Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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I'm psychic

But really, this is why it's insane to think a strong third party run would help Democrats. His ~45% is going to stick with him come hell or high water. Third parties would do nothing but divide the anti-Trump vote and potentially cause a 2016 redux.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Only 85% of voters would vote Donald Trump again over Hillary Clinton? That's pretty terrible for Trump lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Only 85% of voters would vote Donald Trump again over Hillary Clinton? That's pretty terrible for Trump lol

That has to be a number polled amongst 2016 Trump supporters. Don't leave out big details.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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Simple mathematics: 85% of 46% (what the President got of the vote in 2016) is 39.1%, which is horrid. He would have to get need to get 7% of the total vote from elsewhere just to get his share of the 2016 vote.  He would have to find that largely-elderly Trump opponents would be dying off (the elderly aren't particularly anti-Trump) or that the youngest voters support him (voters under 35 dislike him).

[Gustaf]

Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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I'm psychic

But really, this is why it's insane to think a strong third party run would help Democrats. His ~45% is going to stick with him come hell or high water. Third parties would do nothing but divide the anti-Trump vote and potentially cause a 2016 redux.

To be fair, while I think this is often true, 3rd party runs usually happens because of widespread dislike of the incumbent who thus loses anyway. See 1992, 1980, 1912 for example.

[BudgieForce]

Fivethirtyeight has a filter for registered and likely voters and doesn't help Trump all that much.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 11/8

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Exactly reversed yesterday's movement.

[Adam Griffin]

Fivethirtyeight has a filter for registered and likely voters and doesn't help Trump all that much.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

They mesh LV & RV together. Depending on their exact weights, it may be a bit skewed when comparing it to the Ipsos data: I'd say 2/3 to 3/4 of all polls being conducted right now are using RV rather than LV (largely because the notion of "likely voter" 3 years from an election is pretty ridiculous from a polling standpoint).

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker:

Approve 41 (nc)  Strongly 22 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (-1)  Strongly 44 (-2)

[Blackacre]

hey PBrower, do you still have that map of trump's approval by state?

[pbrower2a]

hey PBrower, do you still have that map of trump's approval by state?

I do, but there have been no new statewide polls for almost two weeks now (October 29). It's still on page 8.

I hope to revise this polling map shortly. There is still one potentially-hot Senate race this year, and plenty of them will be under discussion for 2018.

Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll - Arkansas

47.5%  Approve
45.5%  Disapprove

Source

hah, almost underwater in Arkansas of all places.

I'm calling that "48-46" by rounding the .5 decimals up to a full unit. This poll suggests that Arkansas would be on the fringe of contention, so you can imagine what that says about Missouri and Georgia.

The biggest potentials for drops from typical R support to the support that people have for President  Trump are in those states that the President won big in 2016, or at least such would be my intuition.  If you cut the vote share by 12% to current level of approval you would get about 36% approval. The normal drop is about 6.5% for most incumbent Senators and Governors (who have very different roles in political life but get elected much the same way), which is recoverable through effective campaigning. 

Note that the President has no cultural ties to the South. If Southerners thought Barack Obama.  the ultimate d@mnyankee city-slicker, just think what they think of him after nine months! If this poll holds, then I could project that in a re-election bid (assuming that running for President that President Trump wins Arkansas 54-46 at his optimum if he runs a spirited campaign against a challenger of a normal level of competence of a challenger. Statewide races for President, I assume, are usually much like Senate or gubernatorial campaigns.

Democrats are now largely relegated to the black, Hispanic, Asian, Jewish, and LGBT vote in the Mountain and Deep South, and that is not enough in any states other than Hawaii, California, New Mexico, maybe New York, New Jersey, or Maryland.

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49% 
41-45%
40% or lower