Who do you think will eventually win the Austrian election on Sunday ?

[Tender Branson]

Here are the last polls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017

Experts think that the FPÖ has the momentum, but still consider it unlikely that they are actually winning this thing. On the other hand, the FPÖ has a hugely expanded voter base from Norbert Hofer's 49.7% last year, so an upset cannot be ruled out. The party is more popular than party leader Strache, who only has popularity ratings in the low 40s and only gets 15% in the hypothetical Chancellor vote.

Experts think that Kurz and the ÖVP had the best and most inspiring campaign, without any major mistakes. Kurz also has significant popularity ratings in the high 60s.

Experts think that Chancellor Kern had the worst campaign. It started strongly, but then collapsed because of undisciplined, scandal-plagued mistakes and bad press. On the other hand, Chancellor Kern himself is popular with ratings in the mid to high 50s and experts think a Cancellor bonus and that election day could see many voters who have economic and social issues on their mind - which could save him and the party.

---

My prediction:

Kurz/ÖVP wins with ca. 32%, but the FPÖ finishes strongly at 28%. SPÖ only third with 23%.

[Lechasseur]

Your prediction sounds about right

[mvd10]

Your prediction sounds about right

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact:

I placed a hail mary bet on the FPÖ winning the election on some online betting site last week, when the winning quotas were still worth it.

I spent 25€ and the quota was still 1:11, so I could win some 250€.

In the last week, the quota has gone down significantly ...

[Lechasseur]

An FPÖ victory is quite possible so that makes sense.

[mvd10]

Wouldn't an FPÖ victory cause complete chaos? I can't imagine another Grand Coalition after these elections but I also doubt Europe would be happy with Strache as Chancellor. Is it possible that there will be a compromise candidate for Chancellor in that case?

[Tender Branson]

Wouldn't an FPÖ victory cause complete chaos? I can't imagine another Grand Coalition after these elections but I also doubt Europe would be happy with Strache as Chancellor. Is it possible that there will be a compromise candidate for Chancellor in that case?

A surprise FPÖ-win would be a horror scenario.

Van der Bellen would not make Strache Chancellor, Kurz would step down because he didn't win even though he put everything into the campaign, the ÖVP would be in a total mess afterwards. The SPÖ, who'd go from 1st place to 3rd place (most likely) would also be in total disaster mode, with Kern likely gone too. Strache would have succeeded in his political career, but at a hefty price for the country ...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

A surprise FPÖ-win would be a horror scenario.

I, for one, always place bets on long-shots of 'horror scenarios'. It's simply human nature and entirely unavoidable. In no way does it represent my wishful thinking. (Gambling addict who doesn't actually do that)

[Tender Branson]

Bump.

Only 3 days left to vote.

[JonHawk]

OVP with SPO in second