WI-6: Grothman having trouble raising money

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm very skeptical that dems will pickup anything in this incredibly gerrymandered state, but interesting article.

[Ye We Can]

I mean, this isn't a district that i'd expect a Republican incumbent to have a problem in, but Jesus Christ Grothman sounds spooked in that interview.  

[Dr. Arch]

If Grothman is in trouble, the House is gone for Republicans in 2018.

[Young Conservative]

He isn't clearly using this as a fundraising tactic. Nothing to see here.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I will go ahead and note the dems have recruited a wave insurance candidate here: http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/15/democrat-dan-kohl-run-against-gop-incumbent-glenn-grothman-house-seat/396462001/ .

If Democrats win this seat, I'd expect their overall house majority to be in the ballpark of at least 235-200.

[Cactus Jack]

^It'd be a Wisconsin 2006/08 environment and Walker would be doomed.

I was just about to point that out. If Grothman is seriously in danger, of all the people, Walker is cooked. More detrimentally, Paul Ryan probably really is in danger.

[Nyvin]

I will go ahead and note the dems have recruited a wave insurance candidate here: http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/15/democrat-dan-kohl-run-against-gop-incumbent-glenn-grothman-house-seat/396462001/ .

If Democrats win this seat, I'd expect their overall house majority to be in the ballpark of at least 235-200.

Kohl also has raised more money overall than Grothman.

[Ebsy]

Party hacks like Grothman shouldn't be having trouble raising money. This is almost deserving of a drudge siren honestly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm not surprised, Grothman has always been a very weak incumbent.  Definitely the type who would lose in a wave upset.

[The Arizonan]

I mean, this isn't a district that i'd expect a Republican incumbent to have a problem in, but Jesus Christ Grothman sounds spooked in that interview.  

You have Donald Trump in the White House and he is dragging down the Republican Party which is in a full-blown civil war. Plus, you've got the liberals who are energized and ready to go to the polls in 2018. He has a good reason to be spooked.

[Heisenberg]

Grothmann is really stupid and useless. I wish he could be primaried, I think he is actually a hindrance to holding the seat.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If seats as Republican leaning as WI-6 are up for grabs with incumbents still occupying them, the GOP is heading for an epic wipeout of historic proportions in the House that would make 2006 and 2010 look like little splashes. I'm highly skeptical Democrats would actually pick this up outside of a wave in conjunction with a surprise retirement from Grothman.

[GlobeSoc]

If seats as Republican leaning as WI-6 are up for grabs with incumbents still occupying them, the GOP is heading for an epic wipeout of historic proportions in the House that would make 2006 and 2008 look like little splashes. I'm highly skeptical Democrats would actually pick this up outside of a wave in conjunction with a surprise retirement from Grothman.

See:1894, but in reverse

[Xing]

This could be a bluff, but as others have said, if he's in trouble, that doesn't bode well at all for Republicans.

[SATW]

Grothmann is really stupid and useless. I wish he could be primaried, I think he is actually a hindrance to holding the seat.

yes. this.

[DrScholl]

If he is in trouble, why would he announce it like this? Perhaps he's not that shrewd. And it makes no sense for him to bluff if he is safe. In a wave, WI-6 is most certainly on the table and Wisconsin is one state where waves reach high.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If he is in trouble, why would he announce it like this? Perhaps he's not that shrewd. And it makes no sense for him to bluff if he is safe. In a wave, WI-6 is most certainly on the table and Wisconsin is one state where waves reach high.

I don't see this seat being on the table even in a wave, and keep in mind that I think netting 50 seats or possibly even more is something that's within the realm of possibility for Democrats under the right conditions. This seat is R+8, has been held by Republicans for 50 years straight, and is held by a new incumbent who's unlikely to retire and let the seat be open. The district is a mix of working class-whites and college-educated voters who are more movement conservative types rather than traditional moderate Republicans that are the weakest link of the GOP under the rise of Trump, so they still wouldn't be that inclined to vote Democrat even if they're dissatisfied with Trump.  

Seats skewed this favorably in one party's direction rarely fall in waves when incumbents are running, and the demographics of the district are friendly to Trump and tea-party types. Maybe if this seat had been open in 2006 Democrats would have had a chance, but not anymore. The only situation I could envision this seat being competitive now would be if the seat was open in a wave election and the Democratic candidate had extraordinary appeal with the working class voters. If a seat like this falls in a wave with an incumbent running, Republicans will be losing in a landslide of closer to 100 seats rather than just 50 seats.

I'll gladly eat crow if Grothman actually gets ousted, but I wouldn't hold my breath on it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If he is in trouble, why would he announce it like this? Perhaps he's not that shrewd. And it makes no sense for him to bluff if he is safe. In a wave, WI-6 is most certainly on the table and Wisconsin is one state where waves reach high.

He's an idiot with no filter.  Grothman is a bit like Virgil Goode or J.D. Hayworth in that he's such a weak incumbent that to put into play a district that has no business being truly competitive.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Obama won the current version of WI-06 by 0.1% in 2008, so it's not impossible to imagine Grothman going down in a wave environment. Still, I think a better target would be WI-07, especially if Duffy changes his mind on running for senate.

[Ebsy]

Grothman wasn't lying, he's broke.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grothman wasn't lying, he's broke.

He has 324K cash on hand and owes 125K.  That's not broke.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Grothman wasn't lying, he's broke.

He has 324K cash on hand and owes 125K.  That's not broke.

It's pretty bad though, to say the least.

[Ebsy]

200k cash on hand is next to nothing when you haven't had a competitive race since 2010!

[GlobeSoc]

200k cash on hand is next to nothing when you haven't had a competitive race since 2010!

1894 in reverse will be something to behold