Eras gone by: a 2020-? TL

[SamTilden2020]

Intro:
Bob Casey Jr. victory speech, Scranton, Nov 7 2018

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Class 1 Senate Map (C116-C118):

Pennsylvania seat in US Senate:
Bob Casey Jr.: 53%
Louis Barletta: 45%

[SamTilden2020]

Leaked Profane Call (Censored for network TV approval) between DSCC Chair Chris Van Hollen and DCCC Chair Ben Ray Lujan,
Van Hollen location: Baltimore office
Lujan Location: Albuquerque office

Van Hollen: "Ben. This year was a disaster."

Lujan: "For you, or for me?"

Van Hollen: "Two more years with that, that Snake Mcconnel running DC."

Lujan: "Don't worry about us, we've still got Ryan."

Van Hollen: "And to think, What the *Beep* went wrong"

Lujan: "Same. Same."

Van Hollen: "Texas. That's what went wrong. To think that we would've gone all *BEEP*ing in on that fools gold. We all *BEEP*ing knew little old Beto had no realistic shot at senator Cruz. Yet we all *BEEP*ing drilled for the gold, yet got mere pyrite in return. This is what took out Rosen! This is what defeated Donnelly! This is what defeated Mccaskill! This is what defeated Tester! THIS IS WHAT *BEEP*ING DEFEATED BROWN! If ..."

Lujan: "Calm down, Senator, Calm Down, CALM DOWN!"

Van Hollen: "Just, think for a moment, what it would be like if we had won. Everyone from Chuck to Bill would be just, happy."

Lujan: "..."

Van Hollen: "By the way, if this conversation gets leaked, I don't know what I'll do"

2018 house results:
GOP: 220 -20
Dems: 214 +20
Next:
Gov. Results, "Fools Gold" tirade fallout

[SamTilden2020]

Twitter: @realDonaldTrump: Nov 9th 2018 9:33 AM
Failing Democrats lose ground in the Senate, and failed to take a majority in the house. They said it was their year to score big victories, and they haven't delivered what they promised to do. Disgusting!


Gov Results:

D-R:
FL
IL
MI
NV
NM
ME
NH
WI

I-R:
AK

Dems net 8 Governor's mansions

[SamTilden2020]

Editors note: These headlines may seem confusing. However, they shall be answered here. Here,
 I shall introduce a man who will come to play a YUGE role later. He may be just a newborn now, but he will be the primary figure in the timeline, especially in the future. In this case, the headlines formed his name.

Bedford County Hospital, November 9th 2018

It was a boy. The son of Randall and Kelly Marshall was a boy. With all the hard parts of having a child over with, all that's left to do was to find a name. Kelly had an idea.

"Randy, look up the news. Name the first two male names you see."
"Okay, Bob Casey was reelected..."
"Robert Marshall. Good. Now for a middle name"
"Something about Chris Van Hollen getting mad at the senate results"

And so Robert Christopher Marshall was born.

Little did they know that this newborn would one day beat a young Second-Generation Congressman to the senate, or cast a deciding vote on a controversial war, or become president during America's darkest hour. All they knew was that they had a son now.
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2017 results:

AL Senate Special:
Roy Moore: 55%
Doug Jones: 43%

Virginia Governor:
Ed Gillespie: 45%
Ralph Northam: 48%

New Jersey Governor:
Kim Guadango: 39%
Phil Murphy: 58%
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2019 Polls:

Louisiana Governor:
John Bel Edwards: 40%
Steve Scalise: 30%

Kentucky Governor:
Ben Chandler: 30%
Matt Bevin: 35%

Mississippi Governor:
Jim Hood: 20%
Generic GOP: 45%

Mississippi GOP Primary:
Speaker PG: 30%
Tate Reeves: 28%

[DeSantis4Prez]

Louisiana Governor:
John Bel Edwards: 40%
Steve Scalise: 30%

Ooh, Scalise vs Bel Edwards. That'd be a great race

[America Needs R'hllor]

Editors note: These headlines may seem confusing. However, they shall be answered here. Here,
 I shall introduce a man who will come to play a YUGE role later. He may be just a newborn now, but he will be the primary figure in the timeline, especially in the future. In this case, the headlines formed his name.

Bedford County Hospital, November 9th 2018

It was a boy. The son of Randall and Kelly Marshall was a boy. (Touchy-Feely stuff cut out for obvious reasons). Now all that's left to do was to find a name. Kelly had an idea.

"Randy, look up the news. Name the first two male names you see."
"Okay, Bob Casey was reelected..."
"Robert Marshall. Good. Now for a middle name"
"Something about Chris Van Hollen getting mad at the senate results"

And so Robert Christopher Marshall was born.

Little did they know that this newborn would one day beat a young Second-Generation Congressman to the senate, or cast a deciding vote on a controversial war, or become president during America's darkest hour. All they knew was that they had a son now.
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2017 results:

AL Senate Special:
Roy Moore: 55%
Doug Jones: 43%

Virginia Governor:
Ed Gillespie: 45%
Ralph Northam: 48%

New Jersey Governor:
Kim Guadango: 39%
Phil Murphy: 58%
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2019 Polls:

Louisiana Governor:
John Bel Edwards: 40%
Steve Scalise: 30%

Kentucky Governor:
Ben Chandler: 30%
Matt Bevin: 35%

Mississippi Governor:
Jim Hood: 20%
GOP (PG vs Reeves TBD): 45%

This is really interesting- especially the part about the baby makes me curious.
But just a suggestion- don't include meta details like [Touchy-Feely stuff cut out] or [TBD] in the timeline itself in order to not break immersion, keep it as an author's note. Good luck!

[SamTilden2020]

Steve Scalise announcing bid for Louisiana Governor:

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Louisiana first district Special Election (Theoretical) 2019:
Cameron Henry: 57%
Garrett Wade: 30%

House Majority Whip Special election:
Jeff Fortenberry: 188
Dan Webster: 32

[SamTilden2020]

Date: December 12 2018

Update: Steve Scalise resigns to run for Governor.
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Atlas News: Very little, other than Wulfric's signature becoming:

ALL LA-1 VOTERS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO VOTE FOR DR GARRETT WADE FOR CONGRESS ON MARCH 12

No one on atlas thinks Scalise can win, with Atlas Extreme Blue-dog Bagel notably argues:

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[SamTilden2020]

December 25 2018:
Bobby Marshall gets US map for first christmas

December 26 2018:
Boston Globe:Coakley reportedly considering run against Markey in 2020 Senate race

January 1 2019:

Congressional elections thread with poll (By Leip):
Should Leip run against Markey?
Options:
Yes (As R)
Yes (As D)
Yes (As I)
Yes (As L/C/G)
No
Unsure

January 5 2019: State Rep Henry holds LA-1 town Hall, never mentions DEM Wade, President Trump

This leads to this heated exchange on the LA-1 Megathread:

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By Momentum, do you mean his monumental rise from a 27% deficit to a 25% deficit?
[/quote]
The thing you fail to understand is that Trump has been hemorrhaging supporters since day 1. 2018 and the many special elections between January 20 2017 and now have had mass increases in DEM performance, and by the trends, LA-1 should be won fairly easily.
[/quote]
Grabs Popcorn While I don't doubt DEMs have been doing better as of late, I do disagree with your over enthusiasm for Wade. Henry has this seat won, the strong R lean ensures it.
[/quote]
Says the guy who thinks NH is Safe Dem.
[/quote]

January 9 2019: Pelosi announces retirement in 2020

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Hopefully this Robert Marshall can recycle his name into something positive after VA Delegate Bob Marshall ruined it with his bigotry

[SamTilden2020]

Hopefully this Robert Marshall can recycle his name into something positive after VA Delegate Bob Marshall ruined it with his bigotry

Interesting thought.

He could go by his middle name (Ex: Mitt Romney instead of Willard Romney), or can use his first two initials (Ex: J.B. Pritzker in Illinois)

Theoretical examples:

Chris Marshall: 55%
Blank: 45%


R.C. Marshall: 55%
Blank: 45%

[SamTilden2020]

Donald Trump Twitter:

https://faketrumptweet.com/fake-tweet/j8z252z3_152o3sl_hwjbcg

(Via https://faketrumptweet.com)



Louisiana First Congressional district Special Election, 2019 results:

Cameron Henry (R): 61%

Garrett Wade (D): 39%

Poll: Scalise ties with Edwards (41-41), Bevin with 7 point lead (45-38), Reeves dominates (55-29)

May 22 2019: Senator Warren (D-MA), Congressman Kildee (D-MI) form 2020 exploratory committees

[SamTilden2020]

June 1 2019:
Leip announces run against Senator Markey, will likely hand over atlas to someone else for the time being.

Booker, Cuomo, Dayton, Murphy, Baldacci, Bullock reportedly considering presidential run

June 7th: Kander announces run ... against Greitens for MO-Gov

June 12th: Rep. Polis to challenge Senator Gardner in CO-Sen

[SamTilden2020]

Editor's note: Hurricane Anabel was the Category-5 Hurricane that hit Southern Louisiana on 26 July 2018. You've read that right, Angelle is a Libertarian. More on him later.

2019 LA-Gov Debate: Baton Rouge, Louisiana 27 August 2019

Highlight (Question: In light of last year's hurricane Anabel, questions have been raised about disaster recovery and knowledge of our state in regards to these events. Governor Edwards, your thoughts):

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Overall, Scalise scored many decisive points on the various questions, getting Edwards on the defensive throughout the night.

Who won the debate:
Congressman Scalise: 63%
Governor Edwards: 29%
Unsure: 8%

Louisiana Governor race 2019 poll average (via RCP):
Steve Scalise: 44%
John Bel Edwards: 39%
Scott Angelle: 16%
Unsure: 1%

[SamTilden2020]

The rise of Angelle:
By Pete Andrews, Times-Picayune

In this year's race for governor, many things have changed in Louisiana since Governor Edwards defeated Then-Senator Vitter in 2015.

Donald Trump is President. Congressman Scalise was shot (only to later return and run in the campaign for governor). Louisiana has four new congressman (Clay Higgins, Mike Johnson,Cam Henry, and John Kennedy). We have had hurricane Anabel hit. But most notably, an unlikely candidate for an unlikely party has emerged as a major contender for Governor Edwards' seat.

It all started in 2017, after he had lost to Sheriff Higgins. President Trump had appointed him Director of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Thankful to have a governmental job, Angelle kept a low profile, at least until Hurricane Anabel. While President Trump's response was widely criticized as ineffective and minimal, Director Angelle was swift and steady in supporting Louisiana, eventually becoming a Libertarian in protest, and declaring his candidacy for Governor. As support for Governor Edwards and Congressman Scalise declined, support for Director Angelle rose.

Now, he has a path to the Governor's mansion.

[BigVic]

Interesting start

[SamTilden2020]

Editor's note: This is the end of the introduction. For reference, each chapter begins with an election. Just as the intro was the 2018 results, Chapter 1 starts with the 2019 Gubernatorial races.

Chapter 1 events:

Oct 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial initial results
KY/MS Gubernatorial Results
Louisiana Gubernatorial Runoff
Who owns The Atlas
2020 MA Senate Race
2020 Primaries
How the heck Chris Marshall fits into this

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Interesting start

Thank you! Glad to see someone likes this!

[SamTilden2020]

Chapter 1: An era of vast change

Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary, 2019 results (As of 13 October 2019):
Former Congressman Steve Scalise: 40.01%
Director Scott Angelle: 25.7364%
Governor John Bel Edwards: 25.7361%

Oct 14: Edwards files for recount

Oct 21: Recount update

Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary, 2019 results (As of 21 October 2019):
Former Congressman Steve Scalise: 40.22%
Director Scott Angelle: 25.75%
Governor John Bel Edwards: 25.72%

Oct 28: Recount Update

Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary, 2019 results (As of 28 October 2019):
Former Congressman Steve Scalise: 40.22%
Director Scott Angelle: 25.74%
Governor John Bel Edwards: 25.73%

Nov 4: Recount Update

Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary, 2019 results (As of 28 October 2019):
Former Congressman Steve Scalise: 40.22%
Director Scott Angelle: 25.80%
Governor John Bel Edwards: 25.79%

Nov 6: With election days away, Governor Edwards, Director Angelle agree to compromise; Angelle will be on the ballot, but Congressman Cedric Richmond will serve as temporary Governor until April 23, if Angelle wins.

[SamTilden2020]

Nov 5: Bevin, Reeves win Gov races

Nov 8: Richmond: Deal with Edwards "A bucket of baloney", will not vacate seat

Nov. 13: Historic Upset win for Angelle, first Libertarian Elected Governor.

Louisiana Gubernatorial runoff results, 2019:
Director Scott Angelle (L): 53%
Former Congressman Steve Scalise (R): 47%

Nov 20: Leip files with FEC to challenge Markey, Atlas now owned by "friend"

[SamTilden2020]

2020 Preview:

2020 DEM Caucus, IA (52 Delegates) Ballot:
Delaney, John
Kildee, Dan
Warren, Elizabeth
Booker, Corey
Cuomo, Andrew
Dayton, Mark
Merkley, Jeff
Murphy, Chris
Baldacci, John
Bullock, Steven
Harris, Kamala

[SamTilden2020]

2020 Iowa Caucus Result:
Warren 20% (10 Delegates)
Merkley 17% (9 Delegates)
Kildee 13% (7 Delegates)
Harris 12% (6 Delegates)
Bullock 9% (5 Delegates)
Booker: 7%  (4 Delegates)
Murphy 7% (4 Delegates)
Dayton 5% (3 Delegates)
Baldacci 4% (2 Delegates)
Cuomo 4% (2 Delegates)
Delaney 2% (0 Delegates)

2020 Primary Map:

Key:
30% Red=Warren State

[SamTilden2020]

Excerpt of a leaked conference call between Congresswoman Dina Titus, Congressman James Clyburn, Congressman Raul Ruiz, and Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, Post-Iowa:

SPM: "Okay. Iowa. What happened?"

RR: "Our Flint colleague beat my state's senator"

DT: "Unlike how our New England Colleagues by the name of John"

JC: "Should we really endorse Warren? I mean, if enough people coalesce on Flint's golden boy, and Jeff is gonna go crazy on the Berniecrat wing..."

RR: "Good point, Congressman. If Harris just can't do it,"

SPM: "Cuomo still can't do much, Booker is stuck being a walking Jerseysman, Murphy is still boring,"

DT: "And the Governors still do basically nothing,"

RR: "And of course Stein, Trump, and Weld are definitive no-nos,"

JC: "Then we only have one choice left. Lets do a press release tomorrow. I'm sure Nancy and Steny won't mind."

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2020 Primaries Megathread highlights (note: atlas starts going downright mental now that Leip is gone):

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Congrats on Senator Jeff Merkley for winning the 2020 Primary
[/quote]

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Nah, he'll be a short-lived protest candidate who'll die down when Flint is out of the news.[/quote]

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Go back to Mississippi, you hack.[/quote]

[SamTilden2020]

NH Eve: Titus, Clyburn, Maloney, Ruiz endorse Kildee

Cuomo drops out, no endorsement yet

2020 New Hampshire Primary Ballot:
Delaney, John
Kildee, Dan
Warren, Elizabeth
Booker, Corey
Cuomo, Andrew
Dayton, Mark
Merkley, Jeff
Murphy, Chris
Baldacci, John
Bullock, Steven
Harris, Kamala

[SamTilden2020]

2020 New Hampshire Primary Result (25 Delegates):

Merkley 19% (5 Delegates)
Warren 18% (5 Delegates)
Kildee 15% (4 Delegates)
Harris 12% (3 Delegates)
Bullock 9% (2 Delegates)
Booker: 7%  (2 Delegates)
Baldacci 7% (2 Delegates)
Dayton 5% (1 Delegates)
Murphy 4% (1 Delegates)
Cuomo 2% (0 Delegates)
Delaney 2% (0 Delegates)

2020 Primary Map:

Baldacci, Dayton suspend campaign

[SamTilden2020]

Delegate Totals (top 5):
Warren: 15 (17 including superdelegates Warren, Moulton)
Merkley: 14 (18 Including Superdelegates Merkley, Brown, Schroeder, Sanders)
Kildee: 11 (19 Including Superdelegates Kildee, Titus, Ruiz, S.P. Maloney, Clyburn, Whitmer, Levin, Peters)
Harris: 9 (12 including superdelegates Harris, Kihuen, Newsom)
Bullock: 7 (9 Including superdelegates Bullock, Heitkamp)