South Australian state election: March 27, 2018
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  South Australian state election: March 27, 2018
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Author Topic: South Australian state election: March 27, 2018  (Read 935 times)
Lachi
lok1999
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« on: October 11, 2017, 04:45:30 AM »

Seeing that we are coming up to 6 months before this election, I felt that I would make a thread for it.

Here is it's wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_state_election,_2018
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Lachi
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2017, 04:48:21 AM »

Nick Xenophon's State party, SA Best, is polling at 21%, with analysts predicting that it could get them anywhere up to 20 seats, out of 47. They currently are only planning on running 12 candidates, with Xenophon himself already quitting his Senate seat, and will be running in the state lower house seat of Hartley.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2017, 07:46:45 AM »

The thing that's interesting - and currently rather controversial - is the way that South Australia redistributes its seats after every election.

Historically, it had one of the worst malapportionments in Australia: the "playmander", which guaranteed two-thirds of the seats in the Legislative Assembly to rural areas meaning that rural seats sometimes had ten times less voters in them than seats in Adelaide which dominates the state in terms of population - currently of the 1.7 million people that live in SA; 1.3 million live in Adelaide.  Since then, Labor have dominated state politics in South Australia, forming government after all but three elections since the Playmander was abolished in 1970.  In 1989 a "fairness clause" was added to the constitution; mandating that the party that wins the state-wide two-party-preferred vote should win the two-party-preferred vote in a majority of electorates, regardless of the presence of other candidates.

There are a few problems with this system - firstly that the idea of "fairness" in single-member districts is a very... dodgy one (certainly I would argue that the way that boundaries are drawn everywhere in Australia, in Canada and in the UK are all broadly "fair" even though they are different) but also because in South Australia, it is a huge challenge for those reviewing the boundaries to draw a map that meets these conditions without making it a huge gerrymander in favour of the Liberals.  Indeed, the boundaries commissioner after the last election described the task as "impossible" and "It is a constitutional requirement, and until the constitution gets changed, I must say I find it a very inexact science" - and also pointed out that in both the last two elections on a uniform swing the Liberals would have formed government, but they didn't.

In the 2014 State Election Labor were the biggest party in a Hung Parliament with 23 seats, the Liberals 22, and there were two Independents.  However; in terms of the two-party preferred vote the Liberals seem to have won a very clear win: 53% for them versus 47% for the ALP.  However a significant chunk of those Liberal votes are run up outside Adelaide in incredibly safe Liberal seats; while in Adelaide (which has 75% of the population and around that many seats) the ALP won the Two-Party Preferred 51.5%-48.5%.  Indeed; in all but two of the nine metropolitan Liberal seats; the swing was actually away from the Liberals and towards Labor.  Also Labor hold three traditionally Liberal seats that they gained in the 2006 landslide in the Adelaide suburbs and rural areas which seem to have been retained on a personal vote - namely, Mawson, Hewson and Light.

The boundary changes in this election are really quite significant: and the ALP tried to challenge the way that the Commission interpreted the fairness clause in the courts but that have been unsuccessful so far.  The final boundaries would give the Liberals 27 and the ALP 20 on the Two-Party-Preferred vote which is a three seat shift towards the Liberals based on two-party-preferred (which as a measure ignores independent and other party candidates which is entirely intentional), and one of the more controversial terms is that rural seats have a slight advantage over urban seats - although within the allowable threshold for the seats to be considered fair; and at this point possibly the only way to further advantage the Liberals in the way that the fairness clause requires.  One thing that throws a spanner in the works is the presence of the Xenophon party: polling at 20% though is one of the iffy places to be since if that's spread thin across the state all that they'll do is finish third everywhere and those votes will then transfer to whatever of the last two candidates they have on them.  The only other time in modern Australian history that a third party polled anywhere near that sort of level statewide was Queensland in 1998 where One Nation polled 22.7% of the Primary vote and 11 of the 89 seats (although partially because the Federal Liberal and National parties instructed their local parties to preference One Nation ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote materials, a decision heavily opposed by incumbent National Premier Rob Borbidge) although that decision most probably cost the LNP more than the ALP: as the Coalition lost a significant number of seats and would have needed to have brought One Nation into government to have had a shot, while the ALP were one seat short of a majority and could govern with the support of an independent.  I don't know what the geographic base of the Xenophon Party would be or where exactly they'd be gaining seats - although I'd say that I don't think that anyone really knows at this point!

Another significant change is that they've dropped the, frankly, moronic Group Voting Tickets for the Upper House and replaced them with Optional Preferential Voting - the impact of this is that it makes it harder for smaller parties to win off of incredibly small Primary Vote shares through harvesting preferences from other smaller parties.  This hasn't been as big of a problem in SA when compared to other states or at the Federal Level: Kelly Vincent of the Dignity Party will struggle to get in based on this system (they got 0.9% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2010 when she won her seat with the threshold for a seat being 8.333%), Family First got 4.4% in 2014 and Bernardi is a Senator from South Australia which suggests to me that the Conservatives may well have a shot of retaining their Senator; the Greens polled 6.5% and should retain their incumbent seat on ALP and other preferences and Xenophon are at the point where they could gain two seats, maybe even a third. 
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CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2017, 10:38:48 AM »

Former Liberal leader turned independent defector to Weathereill's cabinet is getting crushed in his affluent suburban district of Waite:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/galaxy-poll-shows-weatherill-minister-martin-hamiltonsmith-will-lose-seat-at-2018-state-election/news-story/11244a74f5d2a50ca907c1d15dba1cfa
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2017, 04:19:24 PM »

ReachTEL released a poll for channel seven, with a predictably impossibly low vote for Labor (What do you expect from an increasingly pro LNP-pollster?). here are the results:
2PP: 50-50

Liberal: 36.9
NXT: 21.7
Labor: 19.7
Other: ?
Undecided: ?

Preffered Premier:
X E N O P H O N: 4 3 . 2!!! (I... I call bullsh**t)
Steven Marshall: 32.0
Jay Weatherill (incumbent premier): 24.8
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2017, 05:02:33 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2017, 05:05:35 PM by Talleyrand »

That ReachTel poll is for the Liberal-held seat of Hartley, which Xenophon is contesting, not the entire state... no reason why it seems implausible to me.

A Galaxy poll has him ahead 53-47.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/10/11/galaxy-53-47-nick-xenophon-hartley/
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2017, 06:58:24 PM »

That ReachTel poll is for the Liberal-held seat of Hartley, which Xenophon is contesting, not the entire state... no reason why it seems implausible to me.

A Galaxy poll has him ahead 53-47.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/10/11/galaxy-53-47-nick-xenophon-hartley/
I was using the same source, and didn't realise that it was for the Seat, not statewide...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2017, 10:54:31 PM »

That ReachTel poll is for the Liberal-held seat of Hartley, which Xenophon is contesting, not the entire state... no reason why it seems implausible to me.

A Galaxy poll has him ahead 53-47.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/10/11/galaxy-53-47-nick-xenophon-hartley/

Good. We just need Liberals a few points higher.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2017, 04:05:01 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 07:25:51 PM by Lincoln Assemblyman Lok »

A galaxy poll has been leaked, and the results are.... Interesting....

Primary:
LIB: 31%
SA BEST: 30%
LAB: 26%

This poll was done for the Bankers' Association, who are anti-labor. I would take this poll with a few pinches of salt, and wait for other polling to see if it confirms this.

A 2PP with these primary figures would be irrelevant, and therefore wasn't calculated (same situation in Queensland in 1998 when One Nation got 23% primary in that year's state election, a 2PP was never calculated)

Preferred Premier:
Nick Xenophon: 41%
Jay Weatherill: 22%
Steven Marshall: 21%
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