It's 2032. I'm facing a moderately unpopular Democratic nominee who focused primarily on social liberalism in his election win in 2028, a narrow victory over President Shapiro, who defeated President Harris in 2024 (who defeated President Trump in 2020). So, as you can see, I'm following a long string of one-termers, as the political cycle has been spinning more rapidly.
Now, in this timeline, immigration has receded as a political issue, with President Harris passing immigration reform and President Shapiro slightly scaling back the plan. It was a non-issue in the 2028 campaign, as the Democratic president accepted Shapiro's changes. That isn't to say us-versus-them rhetoric isn't there, as it certainly is, but it is more geared towards traditional, religious people versus secular people. Under this alignment, President Shapiro made significant gains among minority voters in 2028, even while losing re-election, carrying 45% of Hispanics and 20% of African-Americans.
During the Democratic president's administration, he made a comment that came to be viewed as a gaffe: "There are two types of people on Sunday mornings- there are the dying breed who cling to their Bibles- and there are the modern folks who have a good time at brunch. Our presidency is about the modern folks."
In my campaign, I campaign on an enhanced version of Reagan conservatism. I actually name Former President Shapiro my running mate, as he adds religious and regional diversity, while sharing my values and has a record of a strong performance with all people with family values, regardless of race. From Day One, we are in majority black and Hispanic neighborhoods showing how the left's policies against business and for abortion have decimated their communities. The plan works and then some. Additionally, the 36 year-old Governor of Tennessee is able to seem relatable to religious young voters.
Here are how demographics vote in the election:
Non-Hispanic White (63%): 56-42 Republican
Hispanic (21%): 57-40 Republican
African-American (13%): 60-38 Democrat
Other (3%): 63-35 Democrat
Frequent attendance at religious service (38%): 92-6 Republican
Sometimes attend religious service (40%): 53-45 Democrat
Rarely/never attend religious service (22%): 88-10 Democrat
Male (49%): 58-40 Republican
Female (51%): 52-46 Republican
Very small gaps in terms of education with the exception of a notable divergence towards the Democrats with postgrads and with the least educated.
NPV: 55-43 RepublicanThe map:
(California is viewed as the stunner of all stunners and pundits cannot believe it when it is called three weeks after the election)
This ushers in a realignment that eventually results in a complete depolarization of race where race is completely forgotten about in society. Additionally, to the point that people still talk about race, Hispanics come to be considered white.
Following an even bigger landslide in 2036 (I flip Wyoming, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Hawaii, and Delaware), the 2040 election is a nail-biter and looks something like this:
(California pretty much stays a swing state because, even factoring in its Hispanic population being more open to the GOP, it still sits around the average in terms of personal values)
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How it would really be likely to look in the nearer future:
