Election Night 2020: John Hickenlooper/Jason Kander vs. Donald Trump/Mike Pence

[OBD]

This is a pre-written scenario I had for the 2020 presidential election.

[OBD]

AMERICA DECIDES 2020

Tonight, incumbent President Donald J. Trump faces off against Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. While the race has been closely contested, Gov. Hickenlooper has gained an edge over the past weeks, currently leading 47% to 43%. The election will likely hinge on turnout and the performance of independent Evan McMullin, currently polling at 7% nationwide. No matter who wins, 2020 will be remembered as one of the most exciting presidential elections in history.

[OBD]

CURRENT POLLING

John Hickenlooper (D-CO)/Jason Kander (D-MO) 47.12% (248 EVs)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) 42.89% (164 EVs)
Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Mindy Finn (I-TX) 7.21% (0 EVs)

[OBD]

Elections results will be covered by the imaginary news corporation AAA News. AAA is a centrist, unbiased news organization, something nearly impossible to attain in real life. If I make another mock election, AAA will be be the broadcasting company I use.

[OBD]

November 3, 2020: 5:55 PM EST. AAA News Corp. Headquarters, Seattle, Washington

S. King: Hello, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Stan King, your moderator, and this is the 2020 presidential election. In just 5 minutes, polls will close in Indiana and Kentucky. While Kentucky clearly seems to be returning to the Trump column, Indiana has been a close state this year. In AAA's most recent poll, Trump was leading by a mere 3 points.

S. King: We now give you Carey Hart, onsite in AAA's Indianapolis branch.

C. Hart: Hello Stan.

S. King: Hello Carey. What are things like in Indy?

C. Hart: I still see lots of people lined up to vote. I'm standing outside of a polling station in downtown, and the line still goes around the block, even though it's raining heavily.

S. King: So you think turnout will be high this year?

C. Hart: For sure. You can't find an American that doesn't care about this election.

S. King: Thanks Carey. We will now take a short break until we get the first returns from Indiana and Kentucky. Thanks for watching.

[OBD]

November 3, 2020: 6:25 PM EST. AAA News Corp. Headquarters, Seattle, Washington


S. King: Hello viewers. Stan King speaking here. As promised, we now have the first returns from Indiana and Kentucky. They will be appearing on your screen in a short moment.

Indiana: 17% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 48.34%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 44.88%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 6.78%

Kentucky: 12% Reporting Too Close to Call Trump Leads
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 49.97%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 38.22%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 11.81%

S. King: In both states, it is interestingly too close to call. Trump is leading by 3 in Indiana and 11 in Kentucky. Notice that Evan McMullin is doing very well in both of these states. This may be foreshadowing events to come. We'll update you in about half an hour.

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Here is the current map:

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S. King: Hello viewers. It is now a mere 5 minutes before the polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Vermont, and New Hampshire. While those races are certainly important, first we bring you an update from Indiana and Kentucky.

Indiana: 47% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.72%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 46.50%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 6.78%

Kentucky: 41% Reporting Too Close to Call Trump Leads
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 47.91%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 38.98%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 13.11%

The race has tightened in both of these states, though we are fairly certain Kentucky will go to Trump at the moment. Indiana is a different story however, and it's perfectly possible we won't call it until tomorrow.

Anyway, let's review the states that are about to close. As you already know, Vermont is pretty much destined for the Democratic column, and will likely be called as soon as the polls close. The other states are a different story. South Carolina is the most polarized out of all of them though, with Trump leading by 7 points in our most recent poll. Georgia and Florida are both swing states, with polls showing Trump +1 and Hickenlooper +2 respectively. While Virginia and New Hampshire have historically been close states, this year Hickenlooper is clearly favored in them. He has a +8 and a +7 lead respectively.

We will now take a short break. Stay tuned for results coming up soon.

[OBD]

S. King: Hello viewers. As you all know, it is now 7:25 PM EST, and as promised, we have some more numbers to give you. But, we can now make our first call of the night.

Kentucky: 70% Reporting  Donald J. Trump Wins (+8)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 50.02% ✓
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 36.57%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 13.41%

AAA News projects Kentucky for Trump, as his already sizable lead appears to be widening as more of the conservative suburban votes are trickling in. The real story in Kentucky is Evan McMullins's 13% of the vote, the best a 3rd party candidate performed in the state since Perot.

Meanwhile, Indiana is still too close to call. Trump still leads by a hair.

Indiana: 78% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.74%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 46.51%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 6.75%

Now, we move on to the 7:00 PM poll closings. As promised, we have called Vermont for Mr. Hickenlooper.

Vermont: 1% Reporting John Hickenlooper Wins (+3)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 72.71% ✓
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 20.29%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 7.00%

In the state of New Hampshire, Hickenlooper has a sizable lead, however it remains too close to call.

New Hampshire: 24% Reporting Too Close to Call Hickenlooper Leads
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.56%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 41.89%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 9.55%

The same is true in South Carolina, though Trump is leading instead.

South Carolina: 13% Reporting Too Close to Call Trump Leads
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 52.62%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 45.39%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 1.99%

In the critical state of Florida, Hickenlooper has eked out a 4 point lead, though only 2% of the vote is in. Keep in mind this could change drastically as the night progresses.

Florida: 2% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 50.26%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.55%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 3.19%

Just north of Florida lies the state of Georgia. Even though Georgia went to Trump by 5 points in '16, polls this year have been much closer. In fact, Hickenlooper is currently leading narrowly in the Peach State.

Georgia: 10% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 49.54%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 49.41%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.05%

The last state we're covering until the 7:30 poll closings is Virginia. While Virginia was solidly Republican until 2004, Obama won the state in '08 and '12 and Clinton took it in '16. And, this year Hickenlooper has not lost a single poll here. Interestingly, Trump currently leads but we believe Hickenlooper will lead after late-reporting precincts in the urban regions come in.

Virginia: 18% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.39%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 45.23%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 8.38%

Signing off for now. See you in about half an hour.

[OBD]

Current Map:

Donald Trump: 8 EVs
John Hickenlooper: 3 EVs

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Jason

[OBD]

Hello everyone. It is now 7:50 PM EST, and polls have in 2 critical states, Ohio and North Carolina. Additionally, West Virginia's polls have closed and the state has been called for Trump, no surprise there.

West Virginia: 9% Reporting Donald J. Trump Wins (+5)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 60.34% ✓
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 28.74%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 10.92%


Also headed for the Trump column is South Carolina. While we could not call South Carolina earlier, Trump has a large enough lead for us to call it now.

South Carolina: 33% Reporting Donald J. Trump Wins (+9)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 53.01% ✓
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 44.77%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.22%

Meanwhile in Indiana, Hickenlooper continues to gain on Trump and he has closed the margin to 0.05 percentage points. With 91% reporting, the result in Indiana will come down to absentee votes and urban votes.

Indiana: 91% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.62%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 46.57%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 6.81%

We now look down south to the state of Georgia. Currently, Hickenlooper has a narrow lead over President Trump, though it is still much, much, too early to tell who will win.

Georgia: 30% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 49.85%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 49.09%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.06%

In Florida, this is interesting, Hickenlooper's lead has fallen to just barely under 0.05 pps, meaning for whatever reason, Florida is closer than Georgia. Wow. This may be due to the conservative precincts in north Florida coming in in a bundle, or something similar happening in conservative Jacksonville. Either one is a bad sign for the President as Hickenlooper is still leading despite it.

Florida: 28% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.59%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 48.55%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.86%

Meanwhile in Virginia, Hickenlooper has taken back the lead and is expected to hold on to it. He only leads by 5 points at the moment, so no call yet however.

Virginia: 40% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.41%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 43.24%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 8.35%

In New Hampshire, the Granite State, Hickenlooper has an 8 point lead. While it is still too close to call, New Hampshire is clearly leaning Democratic tonight.

New Hampshire: 56% Reporting Too Close to Call Hickenlooper Leads
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.98%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 40.93%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 10.09%

We now move southwest, to the great state of Ohio. With just 6% reporting, Hickenlooper has a large lead over Trump, however this is likely due to the urban, liberal, precincts reporting first. AAA classifies this as too close to call.

Ohio: 6% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 52.80%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 41.86%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 5.34%

The last state we will report on for now is North Carolina. Won by Romney in '12 and Trump in '16, it is certainly a key swing state. This year, Hickenlooper and Trump are in a dead heat, with Hickenlooper edging Trump by 1 point in the polls. We now have 9% of North Carolina's vote in, and Hickenlooper is up.

North Carolina: 9% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 49.13%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 47.55%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 4.32%

In 5 minutes, polls in several states will be closing. We can expect results a little after that. See you then.

[OBD]

Current Map:

Donald Trump: 22 EVs
John Hickenlooper: 3 EVs

[OBD]

Jason

I picked Jason Kander as I like how Missouri looks in Atlas Red. Hint hint

[DPKdebator]

Jason

I picked Jason Kander as I like how Missouri looks in Atlas Red. Hint hint

So it's going to be a Democratic landslide?

[OBD]

Jason

I picked Jason Kander as I like how Missouri looks in Atlas Red. Hint hint

So it's going to be a Democratic landslide?

Not exactly, but McMullin is going to give the GOP some major headaches...

[OBD]

Hello folks, it's now 8:20 PM and we have A TON of results to go over here. Because instantaneous calls are boring and predictable -laughter- we'll start out with the competitive states.

In the Hoosier state, Hickenlooper is now virtually tied with Trump with 98% reporting. It's possible Vice President Pence's home state will go Democratic tonight.

Indiana: 98% Reporting Too Close to Call Trump Leads
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 46.58%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 46.58%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 6.84%

Down south in Georgia, Hickenlooper is maintaining a narrow lead over President Trump. Interestingly, McMullin is not getting a ton of support here, maybe since his views and character don't align with the Deep South?

Georgia: 57% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 49.88%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 49.09%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.03%

In Florida, with it's critical 29 electoral votes, it's a virtual tie. With just 50% reporting, it could still go either way. If Trump loses Florida, it will seriously complicate his re-election chances.

Florida: 50% Reporting Too Close to Call
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 48.59%
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.59%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 2.82%

In Virginia, Hickenlooper has a solid 11-point lead. That's right, 11 percentage points. We're still not ready to call the state, though if Trump can't come back by next cycle, we're putting it in the Democratic column.

Virginia: 61% Reporting Too Close to Call Hickenlooper Leads
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 51.49%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 40.17%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 8.34%

And now, our first Hickenlooper call since Vermont. The Granite State will go Democratic by 12 percentage points. Hickenlooper was likely aided here by fierce campaigning from popular Senator Maggie Hassan.

New Hampshire: 81% Reporting  John Hickenlooper Wins (+4)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 50.80%✓
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 39.21%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 9.99%

Note: For my convenience, I will be breaking up the reports into smaller chunks.

[OBD]

Now, we're going to cover Ohio. Hickenlooper currently is leading narrowly, a turnaround from his roughly 11.5-point lead 30 minutes earlier. While Trump has the momentum in the Buckeye state, Ohio remains too close to call.

Ohio: 31% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 47.42%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 47.18%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 5.40%

In North Carolina, Hickenlooper is holding a tight lead of about 0.4 percentage points. It is obviously too early to make a call here.

North Carolina: 38% Reporting Too Close to Call
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 48.48%
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 48.11%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 4.41%

We now move on to calls from the 8:00 poll closings. As expected, Trump has triumphed in Alabama, the deep red state that almost elected Doug Jones to the Senate in 2018. Jones is currently in a dead heat with incumbent Sen. Roy Moore.

Alabama: 2% Reporting Donald J. Trump Wins (+9)
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 59.36% ✓
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 40.55%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 1.09%

In Connecticut, Delaware, and Washington D.C, all solidly Democratic regions, Hickenlooper has defeated Trump handily. No surprises here.

Connecticut: 8% Reporting John Hickenlooper Wins (+7)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 58.29% ✓
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 36.40%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 5.31%

Delaware: 5% Reporting John Hickenlooper Wins (+3)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 63.62% ✓
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 31.81%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 4.57%

District of Columbia: 8% Reporting John Hickenlooper Wins (+3)
John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 95.68% ✓
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) 2.98%
Evan McMullin (I-UT) 1.34%