How likely is Nuclear War?

[All Along The Watchtower]

How likely is an India-Pakistan nuclear war?

[ProudModerate2]

It depends on what you mean by nuclear war.

Do you mean just one nuclear explosion (possibly NK nuking South Korea) ?
Or NK nuking Guam or Hawaii ?
The US retaliating with one or two of our own.
Or something that grows to a world wide conflict (WWIII) where we pretty much destroy the planet ?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'd say <0.5%. Not happening unless there's a cascade of human failures on both sides.

[Lachi]

probably around 5-10%

[dead0man]

I love how all the people personally attacking me have no counterargument. Can you answer YES to any of these questions?

Will North Korea voluntarily give up is nuclear capability?
Will the United States accept a North Korea with nuclear capability?
If the United States launches a massive attack on North Korea, will they hold back from nuclear retaliation?

1.probably not
2.probably not
3.yes, because there is no way in hell the Norks will be able to set up and launch a missile at all, much less one that they put a warhead on.....assuming they've figured out how to make one small enough...which they have not proven yet....while under attack.  Don't you think we would focus on the possible launch sites early on?  There are only so many of them.

But it won't be the US/S.Korea that starts sh**t here, even with a mentally unbalanced person in the White House.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

10% chance I pray. I think Tillerson, Mattis, and Kelly will be able to keep Trump from initiating it. I'm losing hope on Haley though.

[Beet]

I love how all the people personally attacking me have no counterargument. Can you answer YES to any of these questions?

Will North Korea voluntarily give up is nuclear capability?
Will the United States accept a North Korea with nuclear capability?
If the United States launches a massive attack on North Korea, will they hold back from nuclear retaliation?

1.probably not
2.probably not
3.yes, because there is no way in hell the Norks will be able to set up and launch a missile at all, much less one that they put a warhead on.....assuming they've figured out how to make one small enough...which they have not proven yet....while under attack.  Don't you think we would focus on the possible launch sites early on?  There are only so many of them.

There is no indication we know the location of all of North Korea's potential launch sites, or all of their nuclear warheads (which, as Ghost of Ruin mentioned, can be smuggled). They almost certainly have a network of hidden launch sites or mobile launch vehicles hidden underground, some of which have never been used.

[dead0man]

You way overestimate the Norks level of missile technology.