For those saying only 5%, why so low? We know that Trump has threatened to attack North Korea if they don't give in to absurd demands (like giving up their nuclear weapons). He's always known that such a demand wouldn't work. If there's an attack it immediately becomes an existential threat to North Korea, and they have no reason not to hit back with nukes.
My view is that they have far more nuclear missiles, hidden away in a vast network of underground tunnels that they've been building for years, than our intelligence could possibly estimate. No matter how many satellites we have, we can't see underground. Their missile capability is also higher than our estimates, since they are being fed by third parties. Even if Pyongyang was totally flattened, their nuclear command structure and government would remain intact, and their population is highly motivated. The US position in the western Pacific is weaker than it looks. Think about it... what surface strongpoints do we actually have? A base in Seoul, and a few bases in Japan, and Guam, all of which positions are well known. Then we have three or four aircraft carrier battle groups, which are sitting ducks for a nuclear strike. All of these strongpoints could be taken out very easily, which leaves us with submarimes but nothing on the surface. At that point, Trump will want to make good on his threat to "totally destroy" North Korea, and the North Koreans will want to do as much damage to the U.S. mainland as possible in retaliation. South Dakota is relatively safe, but Chicago, New York City, Seattle, and San Francisco are not. Not that Trump would mind, as all these cities voted for Clinton, and it would give him an excuse to suspend the Constitution and declare martial law. The other option is that China gets drawn in and the U.S. enters a protracted war with China which ends in a nuclear exchange.
I'm not just posting, either. I am actually moving out of D.C. in part because I don't want to be here when the nuke hits.
That seems extreme.
Also if China entered a Second Korean as a result of us retaliating over a North Korean WMD attack, they'd probably do it by conducting airstrikes (like in Syria) or "mediating" a peace deal. A lot of analysts do not expect China to send troops across the Yalu River yet again.
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-korean-war-20170925-story.htmlEDIT: Also, they do not currently have a nuclear capable ICBM that can reach New York City, D.C., or any other city on the East Coast. The most pessimistic estimates are either Chicago or Colorado.
