How likely is Nuclear War?

[SoLongAtlas]

3%. It goes higher if Kim uses a nuke in a conventional strike by the US/SK (good chance). If this was to occur there is a strong chance of a US retaliation on NK via ICBMs/SLBMs (maybe bombers but I doubt it in this scenario).

In this case, even China might nuke NK due to the disaster it has let happen, esp if the NK nuke goes off further to the north than China would like.