How likely is Nuclear War?

[Beet]

99%. We’ve somehow given the power to start one to a man who wants to.

[Beet]

99%. We’ve somehow given the power to start one to a man who wants to.

jesus christ

Anyway, I'd put it in the vicinity of 10%, which in itself is way too high.

Beet being beet lol

It’s going to happen.

[Beet]

For those saying only 5%, why so low? We know that Trump has threatened to attack North Korea if they don't give in to absurd demands (like giving up their nuclear weapons). He's always known that such a demand wouldn't work. If there's an attack it immediately becomes an existential threat to North Korea, and they have no reason not to hit back with nukes.  

My view is that they have far more nuclear missiles, hidden away in a vast network of underground tunnels that they've been building for years, than our intelligence could possibly estimate. No matter how many satellites we have, we can't see underground. Their missile capability is also higher than our estimates, since they are being fed by third parties. Even if Pyongyang was totally flattened, their nuclear command structure and government would remain intact, and their population is highly motivated. The US position in the western Pacific is weaker than it looks. Think about it... what surface strongpoints do we actually have? A base in Seoul, and a few bases in Japan, and Guam, all of which positions are well known. Then we have three or four aircraft carrier battle groups, which are sitting ducks for a nuclear strike. All of these strongpoints could be taken out very easily, which leaves us with submarimes but nothing on the surface. At that point, Trump will want to make good on his threat to "totally destroy" North Korea, and the North Koreans will want to do as much damage to the U.S. mainland as possible in retaliation. South Dakota is relatively safe, but Chicago, New York City, Seattle, and San Francisco are not. Not that Trump would mind, as all these cities voted for Clinton, and it would give him an excuse to suspend the Constitution and declare martial law. The other option is that China gets drawn in and the U.S. enters a protracted war with China which ends in a nuclear exchange.

I'm not just posting, either. I am actually moving out of D.C. in part because I don't want to be here when the nuke hits.

[Beet]

I love how all the people personally attacking me have no counterargument. Can you answer YES to any of these questions?

Will North Korea voluntarily give up is nuclear capability?
Will the United States accept a North Korea with nuclear capability?
If the United States launches a massive attack on North Korea, will they hold back from nuclear retaliation?

Unless you can answer YES to one of these questions, nuclear war will happen. All the people saying the chance is less than 15-20% are saying that the 'Yes' answers above add up to 80-85%. You would have to be as high as a kite to take that view, since there is currently zero evidence that any of the questions add up to Yes.

The closest is question 2, since at least some US experts believe this is necessary. That's why it's the position I advocate.

[Beet]

I love how all the people personally attacking me have no counterargument. Can you answer YES to any of these questions?

Will North Korea voluntarily give up is nuclear capability?
Will the United States accept a North Korea with nuclear capability?
If the United States launches a massive attack on North Korea, will they hold back from nuclear retaliation?

1.probably not
2.probably not
3.yes, because there is no way in hell the Norks will be able to set up and launch a missile at all, much less one that they put a warhead on.....assuming they've figured out how to make one small enough...which they have not proven yet....while under attack.  Don't you think we would focus on the possible launch sites early on?  There are only so many of them.

There is no indication we know the location of all of North Korea's potential launch sites, or all of their nuclear warheads (which, as Ghost of Ruin mentioned, can be smuggled). They almost certainly have a network of hidden launch sites or mobile launch vehicles hidden underground, some of which have never been used.