How likely is Nuclear War?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It depends on what you mean by nuclear war. And what timeframe.

If you mean at least one nuclear weapon detonated in anger within, say, the next three years and three months then I'd say higher than it's been in my lifetime. Trump, plus Kim, plus India-Pakistan tensions, general global situation and an incompetent President... fifteen percent. (Which seems really scary high!)

If you mean Global Thermonuclear War then under one percent. The only one who really might start that would be Trump. And I'm enough of an optimist to think the people around him would stop him first, one way or another.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm not just posting, either. I am actually moving out of D.C. in part because I don't want to be here when the nuke hits.

You know, I would really expect a self-proclaimed super-genius to know that the North Koreans physically cannot hit any American city east of the Midwest. In fact, the current belief is that they'd be lucky if they could hit the West Coast.

Aren't the North Korean's supposed to have some sort of worldwide smuggling ring?