AL-Cygnal/L2: Moore +8

[The Other Castro]

Roy Moore - 49%
Doug Jones - 41%

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http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/10/senate_poll_says_roy_moore_sti.html

[Devout Centrist]

Moore under 50?!

[Dr. Arch]

Yep... he can't seem to hit a double digit lead across multiple polls, which may be indicative that his support is weak/waning. I still doubt Jones could pull this off, just because Moore has an R next to him in AL, regardless of whether he's a horrible human being with even worse policies--let alone fit to be a senatorial candidate.

[UncleSam]

With the recent charity revelations I'll bet this gap has closed even further.

Watch Moore blow this in epic fashion

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The idea that Moore was going to get a 20 point win here was always incredibly silly, so it's not surprising to see polling like this. I expect most undecideds to break republican in the end anyways. If we're seeing the race within 5 points in a late november poll then we can talk, but otherwise I don't think Moore has a reason to be concerned. There's no difference between winning by 54%-44% and winning by 59%-39% at the end of the day - either result gets you a senate seat.

[Matty]

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.

[AtorBoltox]

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.

Exactly, this is his ceiling

[Alabama_Indy10]

With the recent charity revelations I'll bet this gap has closed even further.

Watch Moore blow this in epic fashion

These "charity revelations" won't close the gap one bit.

[JA]

It's pretty obvious that strange voters are not stating their voting intentions in these polls.

Jones is at about where you expect a southern, moderate dem to be at. He hasn't gotten over 41/42 in a poll.

Exactly, this is his ceiling

The low 40s are a Democrat's ceiling in Alabama. Worst case scenario for Moore is probably a ~10 point win, with his numbers decreased due to some voters defecting to vote third party.

[Mr. Smith]

Can't imagine Moore will get below Roy Blunt's margin last year.

Actually surprised it's this close.

[GlobeSoc]

Democratic enthusiasm effect and the dixie coming home effect will cancel out. High single-digits seems right.

[I’m not Stu]

Moore will win by double digits, at least 10%. Mack McBride (I) and Ron Bishop (L) will siphon more votes from Jones than Moore.