PPP: 12 polls of competitive House districts

[Kamala]

Ok here are my rational, logical, objective unskewing of the polls.

AZ-02:
Kirkpatrick 44% -5% +5% = 44%. People don't like losers. But demographics R destiny.
McSally 44% -5% = 39%. Martha made a fool of herself with the "Let's get this ***** thing done!" gaffe by not getting this ****** thing done.

VA-10:
Democratic candidate 48% -9% -25% = 14%. 2014 Senate poll unskewing + Generic D don't exist.
Comstock 39% +2% +9% +20% = 70%. Mass exodus of Nazis from Charlottesville to NOVA to vote for Comstock, also 2014 senate poll unskewing. Clinton Democrats will come home.

CO-06:
Coffman 43% +20% = 63%. Clinton Republicans will come home.
Crow 36% +10% -15% = 31%. Clinton won the state in 2016, but Trump will win it in 2020.

CA-49:
Democratic candidate 51% -25% = 26%. Generic D don't exist lmao
Issa 41% +10% +20% = 71%. Trump is president for all people. All people love Trump. Clinton Republicans will come home.

WA-08 (Open):
Democratic candidate 43% +5% -25%= 23%. "It's Washington State" Bump. But generic D doesn't exist.
Rossi 42% -20% = 22%. People don't like perpetual losers.

PA-06:
Costello 43% +20% +15% = 78%. Clinton Republicans will come home because Trump has proven he is president for all people. Also trump won the state... sooo!
Houlahan 37% -15% = 22%. Democrats can never win Pennsylvania again because 2016.

MN-02:
Lewis 43% +10% = 53%. Trump will win Minnesota in 2020, it's a done deal.
Craig 42% -5% = 37%. People don't like losers.

IA-01:
Finkenauer 42% -25% = 17%. Uhh did I mention Iowa voted TWELVE points to the right of the nation? It's a Titanium R state. IA Dems are DOA.
Blum 40% +20% = 60%. Uhh did you SEE Trump's margin in this state?

IA-03:
Young 44% +20% - 64%. See IA-01.
Democratic candidate 43% -25% - 25% = -7%. See IA-01, also generic D doesn't exist!1!

PA-15 (Open):
Democratic candidate 44% -25% - 15% = 4%. Generic D doesn't exist, also Trump won Pennsylvania so the Democrats are never going to win anything.
Republican candidate 43% -25% +15% =  33%. Generic R don't exist, but Trump won PA.

ME-02:
Democratic candidate 45% -45% = 0%. Democrats can never win rural districts ever again as 2016 proved.
Poliquin 44% +10% = 54%. Trump margin of victory means that Republicans are titanium safe here.

MI-11 (Open):
Democratic candidate 42% -25% -15% +14% = 16%. No such thing as Generic D, Trump won Michigan so it's Safe R, but his approvals are pretty bad in the state.
Republican candidate 42% -25% +15% = 32%. Real R will perform way worse than Generic R, but Trump also won Michigan...


Of course, be aware that this is not factoring in the Margin of Error, so you can take 4% from each Democrat and give it to the Republican.

[Webnicz]

I would be shocked if McSally and Kirkpatrick are actually tied, mostly because I fully expect Kirky to loose by atleast 5 points if she is the democratic nominee, Mccain did a good job dragging her name through the mud, and mcsally is popular bc all her fundraising is put to use through good ads. And this is before we add the carpetbagger issue into this race

Mary Matiella could beat Mcsally with the right funds. Matt Heinz could too. But not Kirky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok here are my rational, logical, objective unskewing of the polls.

...

All of you wannabe trolls on the forum should take lessons.  This is how it's done properly.

[Virginiá]

lmbo award goes to Commiela

[Keep cool-idge]

Ok here are my rational, logical, objective unskewing of the polls.

AZ-02:
Kirkpatrick 44% -5% +5% = 44%. People don't like losers. But demographics R destiny.
McSally 44% -5% = 39%. Martha made a fool of herself with the "Let's get this ***** thing done!" gaffe by not getting this ****** thing done.

VA-10:
Democratic candidate 48% -9% -25% = 14%. 2014 Senate poll unskewing + Generic D don't exist.
Comstock 39% +2% +9% +20% = 70%. Mass exodus of Nazis from Charlottesville to NOVA to vote for Comstock, also 2014 senate poll unskewing. Clinton Democrats will come home.

CO-06:
Coffman 43% +20% = 63%. Clinton Republicans will come home.
Crow 36% +10% -15% = 31%. Clinton won the state in 2016, but Trump will win it in 2020.

CA-49:
Democratic candidate 51% -25% = 26%. Generic D don't exist lmao
Issa 41% +10% +20% = 71%. Trump is president for all people. All people love Trump. Clinton Republicans will come home.

WA-08 (Open):
Democratic candidate 43% +5% -25%= 23%. "It's Washington State" Bump. But generic D doesn't exist.
Rossi 42% -20% = 22%. People don't like perpetual losers.

PA-06:
Costello 43% +20% +15% = 78%. Clinton Republicans will come home because Trump has proven he is president for all people. Also trump won the state... sooo!
Houlahan 37% -15% = 22%. Democrats can never win Pennsylvania again because 2016.

MN-02:
Lewis 43% +10% = 53%. Trump will win Minnesota in 2020, it's a done deal.
Craig 42% -5% = 37%. People don't like losers.

IA-01:
Finkenauer 42% -25% = 17%. Uhh did I mention Iowa voted TWELVE points to the right of the nation? It's a Titanium R state. IA Dems are DOA.
Blum 40% +20% = 60%. Uhh did you SEE Trump's margin in this state?

IA-03:
Young 44% +20% - 64%. See IA-01.
Democratic candidate 43% -25% - 25% = -7%. See IA-01, also generic D doesn't exist!1!

PA-15 (Open):
Democratic candidate 44% -25% - 15% = 4%. Generic D doesn't exist, also Trump won Pennsylvania so the Democrats are never going to win anything.
Republican candidate 43% -25% +15% =  33%. Generic R don't exist, but Trump won PA.

ME-02:
Democratic candidate 45% -45% = 0%. Democrats can never win rural districts ever again as 2016 proved.
Poliquin 44% +10% = 54%. Trump margin of victory means that Republicans are titanium safe here.

MI-11 (Open):
Democratic candidate 42% -25% -15% +14% = 16%. No such thing as Generic D, Trump won Michigan so it's Safe R, but his approvals are pretty bad in the state.
Republican candidate 42% -25% +15% = 32%. Real R will perform way worse than Generic R, but Trump also won Michigan...


Of course, be aware that this is not factoring in the Margin of Error, so you can take 4% from each Democrat and give it to the Republican.

Okay if you're doing that to make fun of me that's not cool I know that the dems will pick up seats.
Plus I barely changed the polls!

[Heisenberg]

I'm surprised MN-03 wasn't polled/

[Gustaf]

Did no one read the actual press release? The point of this poll is to put pressure on Republican House Reps to vote against tax reform. In order to do that they want to show them vulnerable but not toast. Hence, that is what the poll shows.

[GlobeSoc]

Did no one read the actual press release? The point of this poll is to put pressure on Republican House Reps to vote against tax reform. In order to do that they want to show them vulnerable but not toast. Hence, that is what the poll shows.

This poll may be less democratic than the actual environment, then.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Did no one read the actual press release? The point of this poll is to put pressure on Republican House Reps to vote against tax reform. In order to do that they want to show them vulnerable but not toast. Hence, that is what the poll shows.

This poll may be less democratic than the actual environment, then.

Correct. And non-national congressional polls using "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican" are basically useless anyway.  What I'd much rather see are polls of some of the less obviously competitive on paper districts where Democrats have recruited solid candidates (ex: KS-2, IL-12, KY-6, WV-3, NY-22, TX-7, NC-2, etc).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Glad that ME-2 is starting off competitive.  We need those rural seats back.

I really doubt that ME-02 will ever vote Democratic again, be it in presidential, congressional or gubernatorial elections. The only only time it will not vote for a Republican is when Angus King's name is on the ballot.

Does anybody how that district voted on the SSM bill?

[GlobeSoc]

Glad that ME-2 is starting off competitive.  We need those rural seats back.

I really doubt that ME-02 will ever vote Democratic again, be it in presidential, congressional or gubernatorial elections. The only only time it will not vote for a Republican is when Angus King's name is on the ballot.

Does anybody how that district voted on the SSM bill?

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[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the numbers in VA-10, IA-03 and ME-02 are (a bit) too Democratic-friendly, but nothing too outlandish, especially since we don't know how the "undecideds" will break in some of these districts. Interesting to see Lewis and Coffman doing better than Blum and Poliquin, though. I expected things to look a lot worse for them at this point. But like I said, I'm pretty sure Coffman and Lewis will both do worse than Blum and Poliquin in the end, even though all four are vulnerable (if I had to rank them from most to least vulnerable: Lewis > Coffman > Poliquin > Blum).

Issa is going to lose reelection, and I'd be very surprised if Comstock managed to survive, especially with Corey Stewart running against Kaine.

Lewis, Poliquin, and Blum should all go down pretty easily.  Coffman is the type who could survive a wave and the Democratic field in CO-6 so far isn't all that impressive.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting that the rural Obama-Trump districts generally look like more attractive Dem targets than the suburban Romney-Clinton districts (and even some like CO-06 that Obama won as well).  The only exceptions are where Clinton had a very large margin of victory (>10 points in VA-10, >7 points in CA-49).  

[Virginiá]

Meh, not really too surprising if you consider that Democrats had to invest a lot of resources to shift GA-6 for Ossoff to match Clinton.

Didn't Ossoff pretty much match his 2nd round performance during the jungle primary with comparably little resources than what was invested later on? I don't necessarily think GA-06 proves it takes massive resources just to come close, but rather that Ossoff could have come equally as close with far less, and that all the money/attention showered on that race was almost completely useless and even counter-productive, to a degree. I don't know if you saw it, but there was a pretty comprehensive study that came out recently that showed most campaign tactics/attempts at persuasion are incredibly useless and that most campaigns are basically doing nothing more than lighting cash on fire. (Here is the link, although imo Vox had a better article on it)

[Nyvin]

 I don't know if you saw it, but there was a pretty comprehensive study that came out recently that showed most campaign tactics/attempts at persuasion are incredibly useless and that most campaigns are basically doing nothing more than lighting cash on fire. (Here is the link, although imo Vox had a better article on it)

For high profile races that get lots of free media/national attention?   Yes.

For low key races that aren't televised much or don't get any attention?  No.  

It's in the races that go under the radar that money plays a big, big role.  Unfortunately that's the vast majority of elections in the USA.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Comstock is trailing that badly, you know the GOP is royally screwed.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I've marked the Clinton-President/Republican-Representative districts red, plus I've sorted them by Clinton-Trump margin:

VA-10:
Democratic candidate 48%
Comstock 39%

CO-06:
Coffman (R) 43%
Crow (D) 36%

CA-49:
Democratic candidate 51%
Issa 41%

AZ-02:
Kirkpatrick (D) 44%
McSally (R) 44%

WA-08 (Open):
Democratic candidate 43%
Rossi 42%

PA-06:
Costello (R) 43%
Houlahan (D) 37%

MN-02:
Lewis (R) 43%
Craig (D) 42%

IA-01:
Finkenauer (D) 42%
Blum (R) 40%

IA-03:
Young 44%
Democratic candidate 43%

PA-15 (Open):
Democratic candidate 44%
Republican candidate 43%

ME-02:
Democratic candidate 45%
Poliquin 44%

MI-11 (Open):
Democratic candidate 42%
Republican candidate 42%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thanks, Hades.  That's a nice way to look at it from top to bottom.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Thanks, Hades. That's a nice way to look at it from top to bottom.

I actually feel a bit sorry for Comstock; she has been remaining steadfast in opposing Trump from the beginning and I wouldn't feel disappointed if such Republicans got reelected.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Thanks, Hades. That's a nice way to look at it from top to bottom.

I actually feel a bit sorry for Comstock; she has been remaining steadfast in opposing Trump from the beginning and I wouldn't feel disappointed if such Republicans got reelected.

Implying that a vote for the House Republican leadership isn't a vote for enabling Donald Trump