WaPO/The Fix 2018 Senate rankings
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2024, 09:01:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  WaPO/The Fix 2018 Senate rankings		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: WaPO/The Fix 2018 Senate rankings  (Read 2624 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 13, 2017, 05:08:45 PM »
From most to least likely to flip:

1. Missouri
2. Nevada
3. Indiana
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Ohio
7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. Florida
10. Wisconsin

Link.

Thoughts? I personally believe Montana is more likely to flip than West Virginia, so it should be higher on the list. I could also easily see Baldwin doing better than Casey.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,672
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2017, 05:22:32 PM »
I definitely agree on the top 4, and I expect them all to flip at this time.  However, I would move West Virginia all the way down to #9 IMO.  Manchin should be by far the safest of the 50% Trump state Dems, and he's at leading his polls while Nelson is down.  I would actually put Ohio and Florida ahead of Montana and North Dakota, in that order.  But it will either be a net R+2 to D+1 or it will be a massacre for Dems where just about everyone in a Trump state loses.
Logged
Kamala
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,499
Madagascar


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2017, 05:24:53 PM »
I think I'd switch Arizona and Nevada. Flake seems to want to lose reelection, Sinema is stronger than Rosen, and there's the looming possibility of Chemtrail Kelly.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,994
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2017, 05:30:03 PM »
Arizona before Indiana.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2017, 05:33:19 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2017, 05:47:13 PM by Mike Pence »
1. Arizona (65%)
2. Missouri (60%)
3. Nevada (60%)
4. Montana (55%)
5. Indiana (45%)
6. Ohio (45%)
7. Wisconsin (40%)
8. Florida (40%)
9. West Virginia (35%)
10. North Dakota (30%)

This is some bad analysis
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2017, 05:33:38 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2017, 05:38:08 PM by Silent Cal »
Since when is Senator Tammy Baldwin "able to speak to Republican leaning voters," like the article says.
Edit: Continuing reading of the article showed thin analysis without much thought. Quite a bad article actually. Junk Rankings.
Logged
mcmikk
thealmightypiplup
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 681


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2017, 05:40:31 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on October 13, 2017, 05:33:38 PM
Since when is Senator Tammy Baldwin "able to speak to Republican leaning voters," like the article says.
GAY LEFTY PLANK FROM ED EDD N EDDY HAS CROSSOVER APPEAL GUYS
Logged
#gravelgang #lessiglad
Serious_Username
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2017, 06:46:46 PM »
Move WV after Montana and swap AZ and NV. Glad someone recognizes Sherrod Brown isn't invulnerable.
Logged
Hoosier_Nick
Nicholas_Roberts
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 754
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.03, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2017, 10:39:55 PM »
Agree on the top 10, just disagree on the order.

1) Arizona
2) Nevada
3) Missouri
4) Indiana
5) Montana
6) Ohio
7) Florida
Cool North Dakota
9) West Virginia
10) Wisconsin
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,112
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2017, 11:40:23 PM »
Here are mine:

1) Arizona
2) Missouri
3) Nevada
4) Indiana
5) Montana
6) Florida
7) West Virginia
8) Pennsylvania
9) Ohio
10) Michigan
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2017, 03:23:29 AM »
Seems reasonable, but I'd move Ohio down
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2017, 06:59:11 AM »
I'm not sure about Indiana one way or the other. We havent gotten any polling.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM »
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,319
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?
Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2017, 11:52:47 AM »
Here's mine:

1. Arizona
2. Missouri
3. Nevada
4. Indiana
5. West Virginia
6. Montana
7. Ohio
8. North Dakota
9. Florida
10. Wisconsin
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2017, 06:48:08 PM »
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?

My top 10 list for the seats most likely to switch party along with my ratings.
Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2017, 09:31:42 AM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 16, 2017, 06:48:08 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?

My top 10 list for the seats most likely to switch party along with my ratings.

Tennessee over Florida?
Logged
McGovernForPrez
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2017, 09:58:48 AM »
Quote from: Pessimistic Antineutrino on October 18, 2017, 09:31:42 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 16, 2017, 06:48:08 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?

My top 10 list for the seats most likely to switch party along with my ratings.

Tennessee over Florida?
I'm guessing he thinks the environment could help Dems out a lot judging by his other ratings.
Logged
SamTilden2020
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 407


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2017, 10:08:40 AM »
Quote from: Commiela🌹 on October 13, 2017, 05:24:53 PM
I think I'd switch Arizona and Nevada. Flake seems to want to lose reelection, Sinema is stronger than Rosen, and there's the looming possibility of Chemtrail Kelly.

Finally someone else who thinks that AZ is more likely to flip than NV!
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2017, 04:05:59 PM »
Quote from: McGovernForPrez on October 18, 2017, 09:58:48 AM
Quote from: Pessimistic Antineutrino on October 18, 2017, 09:31:42 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 16, 2017, 06:48:08 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?

My top 10 list for the seats most likely to switch party along with my ratings.

Tennessee over Florida?
I'm guessing he thinks the environment could help Dems out a lot judging by his other ratings.

Full Rankings:



>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,235
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 07:36:27 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 18, 2017, 04:05:59 PM
Quote from: McGovernForPrez on October 18, 2017, 09:58:48 AM
Quote from: Pessimistic Antineutrino on October 18, 2017, 09:31:42 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 16, 2017, 06:48:08 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 15, 2017, 08:48:39 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on October 15, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. West Virginia (Lean D)
5. Indiana (Lean D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Missouri (Likely D)
8. Ohio (Likely D)
9. Tennessee (Likely R)
A. Florida (Likely D)

Wut?

My top 10 list for the seats most likely to switch party along with my ratings.

Tennessee over Florida?
I'm guessing he thinks the environment could help Dems out a lot judging by his other ratings.

Full Rankings:



>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.
I want to see Ds to do well in 2018, but even I admit this is a hackish prediction.
Logged
Cactus Jack
azcactus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,956
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2017, 08:29:34 PM »
Quote from: PNM on October 13, 2017, 05:28:34 PM
Quote from: Commiela🌹 on October 13, 2017, 05:24:53 PM
I think I'd switch Arizona and Nevada. Flake seems to want to lose reelection, Sinema is stronger than Rosen, and there's the looming possibility of Chemtrail Kelly.

Yeah. I'd maybe even argue for moving Arizona to #1. Chemtrail Kelli seems to have blocked out Graham and DeWit by consolidating the crazies on Fox News and Breitbart behind her, and Flake has about as good a chance at recovering his popularity as Harvey Weinstein does.

Nothing more to add, really. You two have this one on the money, I think.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,283
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2017, 08:55:21 PM »
My rankings:
1. Nevada (Heller's foot is more bullet than foot at this point)
2. Missouri
3. Arizona
4. Indiana
5. Ohio
6. West Virginia
7. Florida
8. Montana
9. Pennsylvania
10. Texas

Arizona would jump to at least 2 (and probably 1) if it becomes clearer that Ward will be the nominee.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2017, 10:19:19 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2017, 10:20:53 PM by Solid4096 »
1. Nevada (Safe D)
2. Arizona (Likely D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. Indiana (Lean D)
5. West Virginia (Likely D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Tennessee (Likely R)
8. Ohio (Likely D)

All the other 2018 races are safe for the incumbent party.
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,073


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2017, 10:22:58 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on December 03, 2017, 10:19:19 PM
1. Nevada (Safe D)
2. Arizona (Likely D)
3. North Dakota (Lean D)
4. Indiana (Lean D)
5. West Virginia (Likely D)
6. Montana (Likely D)
7. Tennessee (Likely R)
8. Ohio (Likely D)

All the other 2018 races are safe for the incumbent party.

Wow.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 12 queries.