MI Gov-County map Predictions?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/6a7b58795a91d2954b1fd4fdd441119a.png

oakland is within 1000 votes. 0.7% win for whitmer

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Fake news. El Sayed will be the nominee.

[Don Vito Corleone]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=26&f=1&off=5&elect=0

[SingingAnalyst]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

[Illiniwek]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

Yeah this with a map similar to 2002 makes the most sense to me. While it should be a 2006-sized win, the MI Dem party is not strong at this point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_2002

[UncleSam]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

You think Whitmer could win by six while losing Macomb and Arenac? That seems unlikely to me even if turnout is high in Washtenaw. Are you projecting her to do better than Hillary in Western Michigan?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Whitmer will win by double digits.

[Illiniwek]

Sure enough, MI Dems making it look like a mess:

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2018/01/16/report-michigan-dems-arent-stoked-on-whitmer-including-head-of-uaw

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[SingingAnalyst]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

You think Whitmer could win by six while losing Macomb and Arenac? That seems unlikely to me even if turnout is high in Washtenaw. Are you projecting her to do better than Hillary in Western Michigan?

I have not done a detailed analysis, but yes, Whitmer will do about as well as Clinton in West Michigan (and Schuette will do better than Trump; third partied pulled 5-8% here in 2016) and significantly better than Clinton in vote-rich suburban Wayne, Macomb, Genesee (Flint) and Saginaw Counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

Yeah this with a map similar to 2002 makes the most sense to me. While it should be a 2006-sized win, the MI Dem party is not strong at this point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_2002

Would be ironic if the R nominee that year was posthumously elected.

[Illiniwek]

Right now Whitmer and Schuette are favored to win their party's nomination, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see Whitmer doing as well as in the 2006 map (in which Granholm was the incumbent), but the proposed 2018 map in the OP looks pretty close. I predict Oakland Co. goes for Whitmer, while Macomb and Arenac (shown in non-Atlas blue on the OP map) go narrowly for Schuette. Of course, Flint's water will be a big issue (one of many), which will keep Whitmer competitive in Arenac, 75 miles north of Flint on I-75.

I also predict Wayne will barely edge out Washtenaw for the most Dem county in the state (in 2016, Washtenaw was the most Dem).

I predict Whitmer beats Schuette, 52%-46%.

Yeah this with a map similar to 2002 makes the most sense to me. While it should be a 2006-sized win, the MI Dem party is not strong at this point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_2002

Would be ironic if the R nominee that year was posthumously elected.

Ba dum tssshhhh

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lets all be honest here, Whitmer will be elected in a landslide.

[The Govanah Jake]

If the frontrunners win their nomination (EDIT: Switch Hackel for Candice Miller):

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

[The Govanah Jake]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

[Bidenworth2020]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

[Dr. MB]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

[The Govanah Jake]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

(When you check a infobox many times over to find such a glaring mistake escape you) Yea i did, though it shouldn't of been hard to guess.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

(When you check a infobox many times over to find such a glaring mistake escape you) Yea i did, though it shouldn't of been hard to guess.

Ok, ignoring the color thingie, how the hell is Whitmer winning statewide without even clearing 60% in Washtenaw?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

That mistake aside, this map is way closer than Schuette could ever hope for.

[The Govanah Jake]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

(When you check a infobox many times over to find such a glaring mistake escape you) Yea i did, though it shouldn't of been hard to guess.

Ok, ignoring the color thingie, how the hell is Whitmer winning statewide without even clearing 60% in Washtenaw?

You seem to be equating for how that county votes in presidential elections to how it votes in gubernatorial elections. Snyder won the county in 2014 and it voted 57-59% for Whitmar anyway in this scenario.

[The Govanah Jake]

If the frontrunners win their nomination:

What the..?

Whats the matter?

I think you mixed up the names with the colors.

That mistake aside, this map is way closer than Schuette could ever hope for.

The election hasn't been held yet so it's as accurate as any of your predictions. Anyway I severely doubt Whitmar will win in such a severe landslide, unless a democratic landslide of unprecedented proportions nationwide occurs in 2018 which I doubt will happen.

[MT Treasurer]

This will be one of those races like VA-Gov that Atlas overhyped/freaks out about and dubs "tossup/leans R because MUH Schuette's won before!" even though all the fundamentals on the race point to the Republican getting curb-stomped.

I mean, perhaps you're right and Schuette gets crushed on election day, but I personally believe CT-GOV fits your description better.

[IceSpear]

This will be one of those races like VA-Gov that Atlas overhyped/freaks out about and dubs "tossup/leans R because MUH Schuette's won before!" even though all the fundamentals on the race point to the Republican getting curb-stomped.

You forgot extrapolating from polls taken 10 months before the election when the Democratic candidate has like 7% name recognition.