The Iron Lady – UK Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

The Iron Lady:

Can Margaret Thatcher survive the storm?

List of British Monarchs:

Queen Elizabeth II: February 1952 - July 1990
King Charles III: July 1990 - June 2000
King William V: June 2000 - Present

List of British Prime Ministers:

Margaret Thatcher (Conservative Majority): May 1979 - October 1981
Michael Foot (Labour Majority): October 1981 - November 1987
Peter Shore (Labour Majority/Minority): November 1987 - July 1990
Sir James Goldsmith ("Royalist" Caretaker Ministry): July 1990 - May 1995
Michael Caine (Conservative Minority with Reform and UUP support): May 1995 - October 1999
Clare Short (Radical Labour Coalition with Democrats / New Labour): October 1999 - October 2001
John Major (Conservative Coalition with Democrats): October 2001 - Present

Intro:

I've decided to do another one of this, as I think Vox Populi didn't quite work as intended because of some choices I made. I've decided to take us into the early 1980's and a rather interesting moment in history, and the scenario is as follows: Troubled over econonic strife and high unpopularity and with the newly formed SDP-Liberal Alliance gaining in the polls Margaret Thatcher faces threat of a revolt from the Tory Wets, and decides to gamble everything into a snap General Election to regain her mandate. We'll start with the October 1981 General Election, followed by leadership elections, general elections, referendums and the like to see a different Britain develop. Starting with the party elected to Government in 1981, the party in government will face a 1% swing to the Opposition for every consecutive electoral victory.

List of Conservative Leaders:

Margaret Thatcher: 1975 - 1981
Michael Heseltine: 1981 - 1990*
Sir Ian Gilmour: 1990-1991
Michael Caine: 1991 - 2001
John Major: 2001 - Present

List of Democrat Leaders:

Shirley Williams: 1982 - 1991
Alan Beith: 1991 - 1995
David Marquand: 1995 - Present

List of Ecology Leaders:

Sara Parkin: 1987 - 1995
Jonathon Porritt: 1995 - Present

List of New Labour Leaders:

Anthony Blair: 1993 - Present

List of Radical Labour Leaders:

Bernie Grant: 1993 - 1995
Clare Short: 1995 - 2002
TBE: 2002 - Present

List of Reform Leaders:

Sir James Goldsmith: 1994 - 1997
Edward Goldsmith: 1997
Edward Goldsmith: 1997 -2002
TBE: 2002 -Present

______________________________________________________________________________________

Defunct Parties:

List of Labour Leaders:

Michael Foot: 1980 - 1987
Peter Shore: 1987 - 1990
Party dissolved: 1990 - Present

List of Liberal Leaders:

David Steel: 1976 - 1981

List of SDP Leaders:

Roy Jenkins: 1981 - 1982
Shirley Williams: 1982

List of SNP Leaders:

Margaret Ewing: 1992 - 1995
Alex Salmond: 1995 - 2000

[Lumine]

1981 General Election:

October 1981 - Foot wins a historic landslide

Labour Party: 53.5% (554 MP's)
Conservative Party: 21.8% (49 MP's)
SDP-Liberal Alliance: 20.2% (23 MP's)
Others: 4.5% (22 MP's)

The 1981 Campaign started in a tense note for the Conservatives, trailing Labour by a few points and close to a surging SDP-Liberal Alliance. Desperate to win an increasingly uphill battle, Thatcher had sacked Party Chairman Peter Thorneycroft and placed her young protégé Cecil Parkinson in charge of the Conservative campaign, choosing to fight an aggressive, almost unhinged campaign focusing on the extreme Labour policies and the unreliability of the Alliance. The Alliance, despite being the emerging force fared badly in the first few days, as infighting between candidates who refused to stand down, poor media appearances by Roy Jenkins and a confused opening message put a dent on the Alliance surge.

On the Labour side, the combined prospect of a possible victory (and a heavy defeat if the campaign was badly run) led even the critics of Michael Foot to close ranks in order to fight an effective campaign, and despite heavy media criticism of the Labour manifesto Foot and his inner circle proved surprisingly adept at selling some of its key pledges, doubling down on economics by attempting to seize on the public discontent with high unemployment (particularly thanks to the able performances of Denis Healey, Tony Benn and Peter Shore from the frontbench).

The Conservatives were prepared for a full-scale assault on Michael Foot and his policies to be launched, a strategy which began to unravel when the Daily Mirror ran an exclusive story regarding an affair of Party Chairman Parkinson with his secretary. Initially denying the allegations with indignation, further media scrutiny lead to full exposure in the press and the discovery of further skeletons inside the Conservative Party, turning the Conservative campaign in a series of improvised defences and desperate attacks that failed to harm a rising Labour, with the fiery orator Foot drawing up larger and larger crowds on his economic message of recovery.

An increasingly angry Thatcher had to deal not only with defending Parkinson, but with mounting pressure from the Tory left which warned of an impending landslide. The pressure eventually took its toll with the Prime Minister, leading an exasperated Thatcher to downplay a significant rise in unemployment figures at an interview, and her case was not helped by the staunchest Thatcherites (led by newly appointed Employment Secretary Norman Tebbit) apparently telling unemployed rioters to “get on their bikes” and look for work. As the Conservative poll ratings crashed with Thatcher seen as uncaring and ineffective and with the Alliance making a mess of their own campaign on account of divisions, Foot rode wave after wave of polling rises until, on the eve of the Election Night, Labour polled close to 50%.

The actual result was closer to 54%, and the resulting landslide wave overcame 1931 as the worst defeat of a governing party in the United Kingdom. One by one the Tory party grandees (Wet or Dry) were scalped on live television, including William Whitelaw, Francis Pym, Parkinson, Tebbit, former Prime Minister Ted Heath and, in the most historic of moments, Thatcher herself lost Finchley on live TV after barely breaking 30% of her constituency vote. Her speech was, all things considered, dignified, but it created the tradition of the “Thatcher moment” for the most shocking scalping in every following Election Night. While the Liberal Party did reasonably well and expanded to more than 20 MP’s, the Gang of Four and the SDP was all but wiped out as Bill Rodgers, David Owen and Roy Jenkins lost their seats, leaving Shirley Williams as the sole SDP MP.

The next day an embittered Margaret Thatcher left Downing Street in tears, and amidst adoring crowds Michael Foot entered Number 10.

[Lumine]

1981 Conservative Leadership Election:

Heseltine: the new Tory hope

Sole Ballot:

Michael Heseltine: 30
Ian Gilmour: 19

With the downfall of Margaret Thatcher amidst an historic landslide and dozens upon dozens of Tory MP's defeated, the Conservative Party was on its worst state ever. Two traumatic years in government had resulted in electoral collapse, to the point in which both Margaret Thatcher and Ted Heath had lost their seats, along with virtually all of the cabinet big beasts. The most senior Tory left was former Chancellor Geoffrey Howe, who felt too associated to the fallen government to stand. Therefore, the contest was a straight battle of the more moderate One Nation faction between Michael Heseltine, the younger candidate with ties to the surviving Thatcherites and One Nation Tories, and Ian Gilmour, the champion of the unorthodox and highly centrist Tory left.

After a brief contest and with almost two thirds of the remnants of the Parliamentary Party backing him, Heseltine defeated Gilmour on the first ballot, and immediately offered him to be his Deputy in a show of unity. Gilmour accepted, and both men started the hard work of rebuilding a party that seemed to be barred from power from at least a generation.

[Lumine]

1982 Alliance Referendum:

Shirley Williams: new leader of the Democrats

Should the SDP and the Liberal Party merge?

YES: 67.9%
NO: 32.1%

Leadership Ballot:

Shirley Williams: 51%
David Steel: 49%

Having failed to seize the moment and with the Gang of Four obliterated from Parliament save from Shirley Williams, it seemed evident to many that the Alliance would have to undergo major changes to pose a credible challenge to Labour after their historic landslide. Despite the harsh opposition of many in the Liberal Party and the SDP Williams and Steel both endorsed the idea of a merge, which was subjected to a successful vote in which almost 70% of members of the Alliance parties voted to create the Democrats. A simultaneous vote on a common leader for the new party resulted in a surprisingly competitive race despite the SDP's lack of MP's, with Williams displaying far more charisma and star power than Steel. In the end, the surprising result gave Williams a narrow victory over Steel, and much like in the Conservatives Steel accepted an offer of unity to become Williams's Deputy. The Democrats began to prepare, determined to break through at the next election.

[Lumine]

The Foot Ministry (1981-1986)

Michael Foot, the intellectual Prime Minister

Prime Minister: Michael Foot
Deputy Prime Minister: Denis Healey
Foreign Secretary: Denis Healey, then Albert Booth
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Peter Shore
Home Secretary: Roy Hattersley

Having achieved an unprecedented mandate after his landslide victory over Thatcher, Michael Foot became Prime Minister with an unassailable super-majority the size of the National Government in the 1930’s, but a Labour Party which was still bitterly split among the remnants of the Labour right (led by Deputy Prime Minister Healey), Foot’s own supporters and the hardline left, split itself between the Militant entryism group (which now possessed several MPs) and the followers of the rising Tony Benn, now Environment Secretary and the main force pressing Foot to radicalize his government. The Labour Parliamentary Party itself managed to retain a sense of stability, but limited revolts became commonplace due to the large variety of MP’s. Considering that such a super-majority was tough to be repeated in a subsequent election, the resulting parliament would last the whole five years.

By far the greatest concern in Britain in late 1981 was the economy, and it was in this area that the Foot Government found its main, critical achievements. Installing the deeply Eurosceptic and autarky-supporter Peter Shore as Chancellor. Shore capitalized in the dramatic departure of the EEC to negotiate a series of key trade deals across the world (particularly with the third world), while attempting to boost the economy itself through large spending increases and stimulus, a programme of social and public works and the promotion of British industry to bring it back from the decline. After a very tough 1982, the results began to show from 1983 to 1986 as the British economy began a slow recovery to finally take off and enter an unexpected boom in early 1985. Debt was rising to increasingly worrying levels, but with massive decreases in unemployment and a more competitive industry the success of the Foot-Shore team was undeniable.

The same could not be said of domestic policy, an area with a mixed and highly controversial record despite the Government’s majority. Despite constant splits Foot pressed ahead with a far-reaching legislative programme as virtually the entire Thatcher agenda was repealed, trade unions significantly strengthened, a few key industries re-nationalized, devolved governments established in Wales and Scotland by 1983 and, in a highly controversial and painstaking process, the House of Lords abolished to leave only the House of Commons (an act which led to very cold relations with Buckingham Palace and a panicked reaction by the British establishment). The drawback was that widespread nationalization and bank control proved impossible to manage or even implement, Home Office reforms presided over a consistent rise on crime and, more concerningly, the more extreme trade union leaders such as Arthur Scargill pressed the government to go much farther than Foot intended, leading to a constant series of costly strikes from 1984 to 1986.

Alas, the true failing of the Foot Ministry was considered to be foreign affairs. While the Foot Government narrowly avoided a war with Argentina over the Falklands, it only did so through a power-sharing agreement that was widely unpopular. Foot’s decision to unilaterally disarm the nuclear arsenal diminished Britain’s standing and allowed the Soviet Union to take on a much tougher, harder line towards the West, and the departure of Britain from NATO (1982) and the EEC (1984) poisoned Foot’s relationship to the United States and Western Europe alike, leaving Britain isolated on the world stage outside of Shore’s trade arrangements. The situation provoked a rift inside the party, with Denis Healey angrily resigning as Foreign Secretary in protest despite remaining Deputy Prime Minister. Not even Ireland proved a satisfactory affair, as Foot’s Cabinet could not agree on a determined course of action and the unrelenting hostility of the Unionists towards Foot made any deal with the Republic of Ireland impossible, emboldening the IRA into doubling down on their costly bombing and assassination campaign as the government looked helpless to stop them.

While Foot himself was praised by his honesty and proved surprisingly popular with the British public (who widely saw him as principled and honest), his party was significantly less popular due to its constant divisions and its failings on domestic and foreign policy despite their unprecedented government majority, a feeling which only grew as Militant made more and more news and scandals rocked the Labour Party. On the other hand, the Labour Party kept a consistent lead in the polls on account of the deep divisions inside the Conservative Party and the Democrats, all too damaged by last election and with too few seats to make for a relevant Opposition. Convinced that an early election would be a mistake, Foot decided to delay as long as possible to cement the economic recovery and thus secure another resounding mandate.

In October 1986 time ran out, and the Labour Party marched straight to fight Michael Heseltine’s Conservatives and Shirley Williams’s Democrats.

[Lumine]

1986 General Election:

October 1986 - Foot survives... barely

Labour Party: 39.3% (334 MP's)
Conservative Party: 34.0% (262 MP's)
Democrats: 22.1% (30 MP's)
Others: 4.6% (24 MP's)

Time had run out for Labour, and it was time to face the electorate to defend their landslide majority from 1981. With Labour holding a safe advantage in the polls at the start of the campaign their campaign efforts (led by Neil Kinnock) chose to lead a defensive campaign to prevent losing too many of the seats they had won from the Conservatives at the past election, seeking to demonize Heseltine as an extension of Thatcher and portray Labour as the new party of government. On the opposing side and with little to lose, Shirley Williams and Michael Heseltine launched their own efforts with a fiery disposition, determined to bring down the Labour juggernaut despite the odds.

To say that the opening of the Labour campaign was close to a disaster would be kind. Prime Minister Foot broke a few ribs in fall after one of his first campaign appearances, leaving him in hospital for several days while giving an impression of frailty. The Labour manifesto turned out to be received in a negative way by the electorate, as the manifesto (which Kinnock could not stop from being hugely influenced by the Bennites) promised significant tax increases and economic control measures which the public clearly didn't like. Further rearmament promises also led to easy accusations that Labour would be leaving the United Kingdom too undefended, and that's where Heseltine went for the kill.

The chance was provided by the aggressive posturing of the recently enshrined Soviet General Secretary Yegor Ligachev (having taken office after the death of Mikhail Gorbachev in a plane crash), who to cement his rule had engaged in an aggressive standoff with President Reagan over Berlin which came close (but not as close as the Cuban Missile Crisis) from turning into a full-blown crisis. Persuading his own MP's that there was little alternative but to fight an all out effort, Heseltine took to the streets on a strident message of security and defence, denouncing the Prime Minister for "leaving Britain open to danger". Shirley Williams, on the other hand, was hurt by the extreme views of defence for several former Liberals inside the Democrats, who continued to push for disarmament and continuously undercut Williams's arguments in a way which left the divisions inside the third party all too clear.

By the closing of the campaign Heseltine and the Conservatives were gaining strongly in the polls against a divided Labour in free fall (the Democrats having stagnated), leading to an internal coup inside the Labour campaign. Anthony Blair, Foot's youngest protege, convinced the Prime Minister to wrestle the campaign away from Kinnock (whose reputation had collapsed) and into the hands of a centralized team of young operators led by Blair himself, his wife Cherie (MP for Thanet North), Bryan Gould, Peter Mandelson and others. Despite the limited time, a series of stinging ads against Heseltine and particularly against Shirley Williams worked their magic as the Labour drop stabilized. By election night Labour was still several points ahead of the Conservatives, but it was no longer a 1981-style landslide.

The results were far more painful for the government. With Williams having achieved limited gains and 8 new MP's (including the return to Parliament of David Owen and Bill Rodgers), Heseltine took the Conservatives all the way from 22% to 34%, making over 200 gains in the course of the night which overcame even the more optimistic Tory forecasts. A stunned Foot watched in silence as over 200 Labour MP's elected in the 81' landslide went down in flames, including an angry Cherie Blair (who vowed to return) and several members of the Labour right. The next day Michael Foot returned to Downing Street Ten with what many described as a hollow victory, his unassailable majority reduced to 18 seats and his ambitious colleagues beginning to sharpen the knives for the weakened Prime Minister.

[Lumine]

The Foot II Ministry (1986-1987)

Once a hero, Foot is brought down by his own colleagues

Prime Minister: Michael Foot
Deputy Prime Minister: Denis Healey
Foreign Secretary: Gerald Kaufman
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Peter Shore
Home Secretary: Roy Hattersley

The return to Downing Street after the election proved a calvary to Michael Foot, whose authority had been gravely undermined by the result. Labour had a majority, but the losses had been just too much to stomach. Indeed, Foot considered the possibility of resigning, but young Blair and the Foot loyalists convinced him he had to carry on for the good of Labour and Foot's own vision. Despite there being many rivals who openly dreamed of the crown, no one could dare to demand the Prime Minister to leave given his still considerable influence and popularity, and so Foot's second and last ministry began with an uneasy situation. The cabinet could only be reshuffled in a minor way given the loss of control, with the only noteworthy additions being Gerald Kaufman's promotion to Foreign Secretary after Albert Booth decided to retire.

The following thirteen months proved mixed and challenging, the divisions inside the party (contained due to the size of the majority before 1986) growing worse and worse as the cabinet members prepared future bids of their own. Foot himself achieved a series of early successes on foreign policy by securing talks with the Republic of Ireland, leading to a decrease in violence by the IRA and some needed respite for his government in foreign affairs. Due to his personal intervention a bill passed through Parliament creating a Mayor of London, whose election would be held (amidst great speculation) in late 1987. The final achievements Foot could boast were the increments on health and education coverage, although his plans to finally pass through the minimum wage were frustrated by the Pasha scandal.

On the opposing side, Peter Shore's recipe for recovery was beginning to show clear signs of strain by the mounting debt and a renewed (but still limited) rise in inflation, creating serious fears that the much expected recovery was not as completed as hoped for. Something similar happened in the realm of domestic policies, as even with terrorism more stable crime rates continued to grow and the actions of Arthur Scargill and the unions became more and more outrageous, convinced that with the Prime Minister weakened they could extract as many concessions as they wished, leading to further strikes.

Whether Michael Foot could have turned things around or not is matter of speculation (most historians believe he had a credible shot at restoring his hold over the party), as during July 1987 the notorious newspaper The Sun ran an explosive story detailed an affair between Foot and a journalist 35 years younger back in the 1970's. Foot angrily denounced the media and attempted to stage a convincing defence with the help of his inner circle, fighting all the way until in early October further allegations confirmed Foot had at least other two affairs while married (to this day many believe Foot's enemies inside the party leaked the stories, although no evidence has surfaced of such a conspiracy).

The so called "Pasha scandal" or "Pasha-Gate" (the name of Foot's last mistress) collapsed Foot's popularity and led Labour to lose the first election for Mayor of London against the respected, well-known actor the Conservatives had drafted to run in late October. At that point several members of the cabinet were plotting to force Foot's resignation, and when the Prime Minister confronted them individually, several made it clear he had to go. Deeply hurt by what he saw as the betrayal of former friends and allies, Foot made a televised speech to the nation and announced his resignation so the Government could carry on, while making an impassioned attack on the media and particularly on press baron Rupert Murdoch, who had first printed the news of the scandal.

An election for the next Labour Leader (and PM) ensued, and Foot's unlikely years as Prime Minister came to an end.

[Lumine]

1987 Labour Leadership Election:

Shore's moment arrives

First Ballot:

Tony Benn: 40.4%
Peter Shore: 21.3%
Michael Meacher: 21.2%
Roy Hattersley: 17.1%

Final Ballot:

Peter Shore: 52.3%
Tony Benn: 47.7%

First Deputy Ballot:

John Prescott: 31.1%
Gerald Kaufman: 28.9%
Eric Heffer: 24.5%
Gywneth Dunwoody: 15.5%

Final Deputy Ballot:

John Prescott: 62.5%
Gerald Kaufman: 37.5%

Prime Minister Michael Foot was gone, and the race to succeed him was just as brief as it was intense. With the Bennite-Militant backed candidacy of Tony Benn looking to have the momentum to install the most hard-line socialist government in the history of the United Kingdom others looked towards the chance for stopping him. In the end, fears of the vote being too split convinced some prospective candidates to sit out the race, leaving Michael Meacher, Peter Shore and Roy Hattersley to fight against Benn, with another four candidates fighting for the Deputy Leader after the retirement of Denis Healey.

With Roy Hattersley proving a disappointment (as the Labour Right kept being weakened), Meacher and Shore surged as the more credible challengers, with Shore narrowly edging Meacher to fight Benn in the first round and defeat him in a very close contest. John Prescott, on the other hand, easily dispatched Gerald Kaufman to become the next Deputy Leader. While many believed Benn's time was truly over, the Bennites vowed to fight on as Peter Shore entered Downing Street Ten, unaware of what was expecting him.

[Lumine]

The Shore Ministry (1987-1990)

Shore takes on the unions... and the Winter of Discontent returns

Prime Minister: Peter Shore
Deputy Prime Minister: John Prescott
Foreign Secretary: Roy Hattersley
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Tony Benn, then Michael Meacher
Home Secretary: Gwyneth Dunwoody, then Betty Boothroyd

After defeating Benn and pushing the Bennites back, Peter Shore entered Downing Street with what seemed like a mandate of sorts. The first few weeks proved very successful indeed, with Shore taking advantage of his victory to assemble a unity cabinet (which was to prove a grave mistake) with representation of the right (Hattersley, Dunwoody) and the left (Prescott, Benn) with the surprising appointment of Tony Benn as the Chancellor given the past agreements between two men during the times of the Callaghan Government. Facing the potential for an economic downturn and continued strikes by the unions, Shore resolved to lead a decisive government to address those issues for good and deliver Labour a stronger victory in 1990-1991.

Before going through the two major crises of the Shore Ministry, his major success ought to be noted: aside from leading a mostly scandal free government (with an united backbench until early 1989), Shore's decision to overturn some of the radical foreign policies of Michael Foot with aid from Foreign Secretary Roy Hattersley proved a stunning success. While Shore continued to denounce Europe and rule out cooperation with the EEC, Shore and Hattersley took the bold decision to apply for re-entry into NATO in a u-turn, being widely condemned by the left but restoring some degree of standing for the UK and bolstering the front against the aggressive Soviet Union.

The first major failure of the Shore Government was the economy, and in a radical manner. Previously restrained in some of his more outlandish ideas by Foot, Shore was now free to implement his Autarky vision for the United Kingdom, seconded by Benn in a return of the rejected "Alternative Economic Strategy" from the 70's. Hoping to restore the boom of the mid-eighties, Shore and Benn began to expand nationalization, instituted import and export controls and pursued price and pay controls despite the warnings of the Home Office. The collective effort weakened confidence in the Government as investment went down, inflation rising once again. Forced to do something radical, Shore and Benn tried to avoid chaos by nationalizing several key banks in early 1989, and the resulting loss of investment and capital crashed the pound. An economic crisis ensued.

At the same time, the task of domestic governing was also the other major failure of the Shore years. An inability by the factions of the Labour Party to agree on several domestic matters continued to make it impossible to properly conduct Northern Ireland or crime policy due to the disagreements between the Bennites and the Labor right. And when Shore finally had enough of the strikes, his pay control scheme and the tough but ineffective stance of Home Secretary Gwyneth Dunwoody led Arthur Scargill and the miners to stage a series of strikes which rose and rose in number as the Government proved ineffective in solving them, leading to internal strife and chaos.

By early 1989 not only the economy was in freefall, but the Scargill led strikes turned into full-scale General Strike by the unions due to the payment issue. Strengthened heavily during the Foot years, the unions proved too powerful against the Government, whose majority was slowly eaten away via by-election. The relationship between Shore and Benn soured to the point in which Shore was forced to enact a harsh cabinet purge in which Benn, Dunwoody and other ineffective or dissenting ministers were fired. Replacing them with Michael Meacher and the rising star Betty Boothroyd Shore kept the strike away after last minute concessions, but the cost was increasingly high.

As 1990 dawned the unions went to the charge again, leading many to claim the Winter of Discontent had returned, only in a much, much worse form. Unable to properly react and govern due to his disappearing majority Shore was with dismay how in March 1990 (a year and a half before the last date to call an election) his majority turned into minority with Labour MP's defecting to the Democrats or losing by-elections. Immediately after Heseltine made his gamble and called for the Democrats to support a Vote of No Confidence to force a General Election. Tired, bitter and unwilling to go down like Callaghan, Shore went to see Her Majesty and delivered a shock announcement.

He was calling the election himself.

[Lumine]

1990 General Election:

May 1990 - Shore wins the unwinnable election

Labour Party: 35.2% (352 MP's)
Conservative Party: 26.5% (175 MP's)
Democrats: 26.3% (89 MP's)
Ecology Party: 8.1% (7 MP's)
Others: 4.0% (28 MP's)

After months and years of anxiety over the ruling Labour government, the British Establishment was at last celebrating through March and April 1990. The country was in a terrible shape, but it was finally time to go to the polls and see Peter Shore's Labour Party resoundingly thrashed by the electorate due to the endless strikes and the economic crisis. Heseltine and the Conservatives hadn't been running the best of campaigns due to questionable choices by Party Chairman Michael Mates and the Democrats were still beset by confusing messasing and internal divides, but surely, surely this was the time for victory? Surely Labour would at last be removed and the country saved, they thought.

However, no one had forseen Heseltine's heart attack in late April. Heseltine was rushed to hospital  in a desperate attempt to save his life, the doctors keeping him alive but in a coma. Without its leading man, the Conservative Party came crashing down as the tensions inside the party and their desperation for victory came into full force. Mates's incompetent campaign surpassed even Kinnock's failure in 1986, and despite the dignity of Sir Ian Gilmour as Acting Tory Leader he was well on his way to retirement soon and large portions of the party refused to get behind him and his excessively moderate ways.

The tide began to turn. Shirley Williams began to pick up steam, but what should have been another shot at a serious surge was hampered by two key factors: one being that the Democrat plank on the strikes was seen as incoherent and undecisive, dragging Williams down with swing voters. The second was the unexpected rise of the Ecology Party, whose populist politics convinced many former Conservative, Democratic and Labour voters to join their ranks as they shot up in the polls and ruined all predictions of the outcome. Shore sensed his opportunity, and took to the streets with his fiery, charismatic style to persuade the electorate. Some degree of popularity remained, and the radicalization of Militant Labour allegedly reached a point in which accussations of voter intimidation in certain areas were raised.

With Heseltine still in a coma and the Opposition divided and headless, Britain watched in dismay the results on Election Night. Despite slipping to a mere 35% of the vote Labour had secured 352 MP's and a fifty seat majority, as the Conservatives crashed to 175 and Shirley Williams managed to take the Democrats all the way to 89 MP's and running neck and neck with the Tories on the popular vote. The Ecology Party under Parkin did reasonably well with 8% of the vote, winning 7 seats (including Parkin, Teddy Goldsmith and other rising stars).

As a smiling Shore returned to Downing Street, the Government was unaware that several civil servants, a group of colonels and a particularly charismatic businessman staged a private meeting in the countryside. In London, a disaffected and angry IRA cell prepared for what they considered the hit of the century. In the North, Scargill and the unions added the finishing touches to their plans for an extended long-term General Strike. They'd all had enough.

[Lumine]

A Very British Coup:

July 1990 - The United Kingdom suffers its first coup

With a General Strike threatening to topple the Government, Peter Shore's brief second ministry an unmitigated failure and with Her Majesty the Queen herself assassinated at the hands of terrorists, a cabal of businessmen, politicians and army officers decided they'd had enough. With Labour controlling Parliament with a record low 35% of the vote, the Conservative Leader in a coma and no feasible shot at forcing a voluntary resignation from the Prime Minister, the cabal decided to start the coup despite not having secured sufficient support, gambling that the only way to succeed was to gain enough momentum to get King Charles and the Army to get behind them. Either way, the conspirators felt they had no more time to act.

On July 21st, as a grieving King Charles III returned to London from Scotland after the funeral of her beloved mother (an act which had stunned the nation into collective shock), Prime Minister Peter Shore was detained at Chequers by a group of rogue MI5 agents. A parachute regiment took over Heathrow Airport, and two tank groups secured the BBC and the entry to Buckingham Palace. Left and right prominent Labour MP's and cabinet ministers were arrested as sympathetic members of the Civil Service turned them in, and General Kitson himself entered Buckingham Palace for an audience with the stunned Monarch. Despite Charles III's objections, the General produced two key pieces of evidence uncovered by MI5, and with Queen Diana strongly pushing for Charles to take action the King finally decided to do so.

Both the Civil Service and the Army were notified that due to the unprecedented state of the nation the King was personally intervening to prevent a Communist takeover of the nation by the units, and drilled to obey the orders of the Crown the officers and civil servants promptly obeyed the given orders. Civil resistance had begun to form around the unions the moment the news spread of the take over, with Tony Benn (having escaped arrest) meeting with Scargill to prepare a popular resistance against what was taking place. The conspirators seized virtually the entire apparatus of Government and most of the prominent Labour hard-left politicians, and amidst the first riots Charles III made a historic televised statement from Buckingham Palace.

Britons were stunned as the King informed his people point blank that he had felt it was his duty to act to save Britain from collapse, and produced and presented two key news to the public: the assassination of Queen Elizabeth II had indeed been enacted by an IRA squad, and equally shocking, that MI5 had uncovered evidence that Arthur Scargill had been recieving payments by the Soviet Government. Describing this intereference on British politics as unacceptable (many noted the irony), the King publicly announced the creation of a caretaker government led by Sir James Goldsmith, and invited the Conservative and Democrat parties to Buckingham Palace for talks.

Both Sir Ian Gilmour and Shirley Williams refused to take part in such a ministry despite accepting the danger posed by Scargill, leading Goldsmith to abandon initial plans for a "National Government" and switch to an independent government of business, military and indepedent figures. With no House of Lords the House of Commons was temporarily suspended  as the Crown's powers fell to Goldsmith (with Charles III insisting on measures such as releasing most of the Labour Parliamentary Party from custody). Amidst all this shock, economic misery and outrage by many, Arthur Scargill took a flight to Moscow and abandoned the trade union movement, causing the collapse of the General Strike.

Britain was in unchartered territory now.

[Lumine]

1991 Referendum:

July 1991 - Goldsmith wins popular support for his Premiership

Elections in 1995: 53.3%
Elections in 1991: 46.7%

Lords Restoration: 41.9%
No Lords Restoration: 58.1%

Party Ban: 25.8%
No Party Ban: 74.2%

Sir James Goldsmith was installed as Prime Minister in July 1990 after the domestic arrest of Peter Shore (dismissed as Prime Minister by King Charles at Queen Diana's urging), and as the voice and public face of the cabal of officers determined restore "the greatness of Britain", on his first twelve months Goldsmith rooted out corruption and left-wing infiltration, successfully defeated the General Strike after Scargill's defection to the Soviet Union and halted the economic collapse for the time being (with millions of unemployed people in the UK at the moment). The cost was to turn  UKinto an international pariah, the main political parties having refused to support his Government (and thus the House of Commons remains suspended), and there being no no clear legislative process beyond Charles III's powers.

Facing deadlock and the possibility of the military officers seizing powers for themselves, Goldsmith solved his dilemma with the help of Queen Diana, a close friend and described by many as the "power behind the throne". Diana, more popular than ever due to her work to help the millions of unemployed Britons as Queen, suggested to Goldsmith to call a referendum to subvert claims that the current government is undemocratic, and thus chart a clear course for the future. Fighting a populist campaign and rallying against the "Westminster establishment" Goldsmith proved a surprisingly adept communicator and campaigner with the people, making clear arguments to the necessity of a "government of national salvation" with enough time to reform the country before an election could be held.

With millions of voters choosing to boycott the referendum to deny Goldsmith any legitimacy (turnout was considerably low), the result was a small but workable victory for the appointed Prime Minister. While the voters had strongly rejected the idea of a party ban and refused to support restoration of the House of Lords, they had indeed supported the idea of Goldsmith remaining in power all the way until 1995, were elections would be held and Britain presumably return to a more democratic system. Sir James Goldsmith and Queen Diana were understood to have celebrated that night with glee, whereas King Charles was seen somewhat gloomy.

[Lumine]

1991 Conservative Leadership Election:

Can Michael Caine's appeal return the Tories into Government?

Sole Ballot:

Michael Caine: 108
Douglas Hurd: 29
Kenneth Baker: 21
David Hunt: 17

With Michael Heseltine unable to resume his duties as an MP and Sir Ian Gilmour deciding the time had come for him to retire, the Conservative Party entered its first leadership election in ten years with a crop of candidates many found uninspiring. Despite the skills and accomplishments of Douglas Hurd, Kenneth Baker and David Hunt, several MP's and party grandees were not confident at all in their ability to return the Conservative Party to government once the 1995 Election came.

Enter Michael Caine, former London Mayor and a most unorthodox Tory. Drafted to run by his supporters (and unwilling at first), Caine rode a wave of public and popular support (even with the media, The Sun cheering for him all the way through) which pressured the Tory MP's to seriously consider Caine as a candidate. Whereas Baker and Hurd embarrased themselves with unconvincing media appareances and Hunt proved to be a non-entity in the contest, Caine was ably aided by a team of younger MP's determined to help him win, with John Major, Edwina Currie, Virginia Bottomley and Norman Lamont at the forefront.

By the time the first ballot came, the polls were optimistic enough to convince the Conservative Party. Michael Caine was now Leader of the Conservative Party with over 60% of the vote.

1991 Democrat Leadership Election:

Is Alan Beith the right man for the Democrats?

Sole Ballot:

Alan Beith: 51.3%
David Owen: 48.7%

The Democrat contest initiated by the resignation of Shirley Williams proved a bitter one. Rather than a contest of policy, the leadership battle turned into a debate on whether the Democrats as a party should continue existing, with the insurgency of David Owen and Michael Meadowcroft strongly arguing for the Liberals and the SDP to go their own way. Opposing them was the center-left of the party led by Alan Beith and David Marquand, who argued their party was more necessary than ever to provide the British public a clear alternate in 1995. Amidst public sniping and a contest overshadowed by the Tory leadership race, many came to believe Owen and Meadowcroft could seriously win the contest, forcing Beith and his supporters to step up their game.

By the time the ballots were counted, Beith had narrowly bested Owen. The Democrats would go on to fight 1995, but could they fight the election united?

[Lumine]

The Goldsmith Ministry (1990-1995)

Goldsmith leads a surprisingly successful government

Prime Minister: Sir James Goldsmith
Foreign Secretary: David Bellamy
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Aspinall
Home Secretary: Kate Losinska

It was an odd situation for Sir James Goldsmith.

He'd presided over a tough year as Prime Minister, and although his referendum gamble had given him public support to carry on until 1995, he was tied by the lack of a House of Lords (which the public would not support) and the hostility of the House of Commons, which continued to refuse to provide him with legislative support and thus remained suspended. On the other extreme, the hardline military officers kept their pressure for Goldsmith to take a similar hardline approach, and while the Prime Minister could count on Queen Diana to support him, King Charles's support was far more lukewarm.

In a sense, it was to be a surprise that Goldsmith would survive the term not only with some significant successes, but also popular with a large part of the British electorate.

Appointing long time friend and businessman John Aspinall as Chancellor, known environmentalist and media personality David Bellamy as Foreign Secretary and right-wing union leader Kate Losinska as Home Secretary, Goldsmith led an odd government of independents and Conservative Labour or Ecology defectors, which managed not only to keep out of major scandals, but with the aid of MI5 cleaned the entire Civil Service of "socialist tendencies" and led some successful initiatives against abuse of the press and corruption. The division of the opposition also gave the Prime Minister breathing room, as the inability of the Labour Party to revive itself on the disastrous 1993 Conference meant the party was divided in half (and allowed to exist due to pressure from Charles III).

The major successes of Goldsmith could be found easily on the economy and in the realm of domestic policies in a lesser degree. Rejecting neo-liberalism and socialism, Goldsmith and Chancellor Aspinall innovated by bringing back a mercantilist approach to the economy while doing away with Shore's disatrous plans for "autarky". Having the aid of the business community and economic links across the world the Prime Minister and the Chancellor used their influence to promote re-investment into the United Kingdom, establish some protectionist measures and engage in limited privatization to significant success, driving unemployment down and starting a slow but effective recovery.

On domestic affairs little far-reaching proposals could be found due to the hostility of Parliament, but with aid from the Armed Forces, MI5 and Home Secretary Losinska the trade unions were temporarily brought to heel in a series of violent strikes between 1990 and 1993. The Soviet ties of Scargill and his departure to the Soviet Union had damaged the prestige of the trade union movement, and the ample use of security powers allowed Goldsmith to circumvent Labour's legislation to smash the strikes. Also successful was the comeback against the IRA, with dozens of suspected IRA agents shot dead in police raids across the country (leading many to state that a "dirty war" was in place). Goldsmith had the particular pleasure of announcing in a televised broadcast that the killers of Queen Elizabeth had been found and killed in a daring raid.

Foreign affairs, however, was nothing short of a disaster. Goldsmith had an infamously terrible relationship with President Gore through his entire term in office, leading to the suspension of the United Kingdom from NATO and harsh condemnations from the United Nations which Goldsmith only averted by the use of the Security Council veto. Even worse, while Goldsmith avoided entering into conflict with Spain or Argentina, talks with the Chinese over the Hong Kong handover went badly, leading to a tense stand-off in the city as less than two years remained until the Kowloon lease was to expire. Foreign Secretary Bellamy, while good with the media, proved a terrible diplomat.

While many expected the Goldsmith "Royalist" ministry (as it was mockingly called by Private Eye) to collapse in a surge of public anger, Goldsmith was surprisingly skillfull in raising support from the media and take populist initiatives, to the point in which his approval ratings were more positive than negative through the second half of his ministry. It led many to have serious concerns about how supportive the British population could be of a regime that was not democratic in nature.

In the end, 1995 came in, and despite the concerns of the Armed Forces Goldsmith and Charles III agreed to finally call the long-awaited election.

[Lumine]

TL on hold.

[Lumine]

TL on hold.

I'm back. Writing this TL actually relaxes me, so I'll keep doing it for now.

1995 General Election:

May 1995 - Caine wins a fragmented election

Conservative Party: 27.2% (288 MP's)
Radical Labour Party: 20.8% (168 MP's)
New Labour: 15.2% (93 MP's)
Democrats: 13.0% (48 MP's)
Reform Party: 14.8% (36 MP's)
Ecology Party: 5.5% (4 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 0.8% (2)
Others: 2.7% (20 MP's)

The election had been called, and a short campaign ensued as the old and new political parties sracmbled to seize power.

Whilst the Ecology Party (hurt by the defection of its entire right wing) and the Scottish National Party (undermined by a lack of funds and support) soon proved to be non-factors in the election, the other five main parties all showed distinct strenght in the polls, leading many pundits to imagine an unworkable hung parliament as the most evident result. The old Labour remnants could count on significant support, but divided among two different parties and leaders who spent a great part of the campaign fighting each other as the true heirs to the defunct party. The Conservatives made significant gains, only to lose almost the same numbers to James Goldsmith's surging Reform Party. The Democrats, despite having had a serious shot at a first place, soon realized Beith was everything but an effective campaigner, botching the entire effort.

An interesting addition to this election was the introduction of debates at the suggestion of Michael Caine and Bernie Grant, leading to a heated exchange about the merits of the past five years and some memorable one liners. Particularly memorable was Caine's dismissal of Grant as a "Loony Bernie" and the comment from Goldsmith that Blair was a "wolf in sheep's clothing", which Grant countered by stating Blair was actually a "sheep in wolf's clothing". The debates had little effect beyond confirming the steady fall of the Democrats and Ecology and turning the election into an even more confused affair in the media, as the newspapers championed a particular party to the extent that headlines were more divided than ever.

One fact that the pundits did underestimate was the resillience of First Past the Post. On Election Night it became evident that even though the "six party system" was virtually incompatible to FPTP, a difference of a few points could still lead to disproportionate results for particular parties. The largest benefitiaries of this were the Conservatives, who reached 288 MP's on a mere 27% of the vote, and Grant's Radical Labour, who reached 168 on almost 21%. Blair and Goldsmith had some very respectable showings at around 15% each, although New Labour would boast almost as three times more MP's as Reform's vote was evenly spread. The Democrats under Beith crashed from their record of 26% all the way to 13%, returning only 48 MP's as their leader resigned that very night.

While the Parliament was indeed a divided one, it was clear a "Rainbow Coalition" would be an impossible affair. Blair would not stomach Bernie Grant as Prime Minister, and neither would the Armed Forces allow his appointment. On the other hand, during the next week the Conservatives held talks with Goldsmith and with the UUP, deciding to negotiate a "Supply and Confidence" deal of two years after a few policy concessions. The so called "transition to democracy" began with Michael Caine, actor turned politician, appointed as Prime Minister by King Charles III.

[Lumine]

1995 Democrat Leadership Election:

Deputy Leader Marquand takes over

Sole Ballot:

David Marquand: 41.9%
David Penhaligon: 32.3%
George Robertson: 25.8%

The high profile losses suffered by the Democrats in 1995 were enough to force Alan Beith to quit as leader right after Election Night, placing the Democrats in the odd position of having to choose yet another leader to refine their appeal. Despite attempts by George Robertson and David Penhaligon to move the party towards a more "Social Democratic" or "Liberal" mold, Deputy Leader David Marquand sailed to victory in the first and only round under his pledge of "progressive politics", and his ideal of forming a center-left to left coalition after the next election to bring the Democrats into government at last. While Penhaligon kept Marquand below 50%, Robertson's endorsement of the Deputy Leader led the former Liberal MP to refrain from a second ballot, allowing Marquand to take control. But would his message be the right one?

1995 Radical Labour Leadership Election:

Clare Short: Aspiring for the Premiership

Sole Ballot:

Clare Short: 51.2%
Dave Nellist: 48.8%

Suffering from ill health, Bernie Grant's leadership ended on a high note after a successful performance in the 1995 Election, leading many to believe Radical Labour was destined to be the next government. The subsecuent leadership contest proved to be one of contrast, pitting the more moderate Clare Short against the Militant aligned Dave Nellist in a bitter, contested fight to lead the Opposition. Against Nellist's insistence on standing alone Short endorsed the view that Radical Labour had to work with other parties if it was to govern, and placing some emphasis on novel ideals for Radical Labour she was able to barely edge Nellist at the vote. Her support for an eventual coalition would be put to the test.

1997 Reform Leadership Election:

Teddy Goldsmith inherits the legacy of his brother

Sole Ballot:

Edward Goldsmith: 64.7%
Robert Kilroy-Silk: 35.3%

The death of Sir James Goldsmith due to cancer left the Reform Party in shock, and right at the crossroads. The party was propping the Caine government through a supply and confidence deal, and while a larger part of Goldsmith's agenda was being preserved and protected there were different approaches as to where to go next. In the end, loyalist Edward Goldsmith entered the ring in the hopes of broadening the appeal of the Reform Party with a stronger environmental focus, whereas the firebrand Robert Kilroy-Silk stood for a fully populist route. While many believed Kilroy-Silk's charisma could propel him to the leadership, the respect and support for the late Sir James ran strong inside the party, and Edward Goldsmith's credentials as an intellectual seemed to give further respectability to the party. In a surprising result, Goldsmith trounced Kilroy-Silk.

[Lumine]

The Caine Ministry (1995-1999)

Caine restores the economy, but stumbles on the foreign stage

Prime Minister: Michael Caine
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Major
Foreign Secretary: Norman Fowler, then Malcolm Rifkind
Home Secretary: Virginia Bottomley

Despite not quite achieving the result the party would have wanted, Michael Caine had led the Tories back in government for the first time since 1981. It had taken years for the public to forget about the Thatcher years, and Prime Minister Caine decided not to waste the chance to mold British politics to his own ambitions. The results were of both spectacular brilliance and spectacular failure, all before the backdrop of an awkward transition back to democracy and the fascination generated by a famous star turned into politician.

To his benefit, Caine could count on the full support of his backbenchers, all of them not only enthusiastic about entering government but determined to make it last. Aided by an efficient Whips Office and the support of Reform and the UUP alike, the hung parliament itself was not an impediment for Caine's government to draft and pass ambitious legislation, and even if Grant regularly trounced Caine at PMQ's (with Short giving him a good fight as well), the division inside the Opposition made it hard for them to disrupt the government's agenda, only managing to sink a few of the most controversial pieces of legislation. On the other hand, while the government avoided crippling scandals, quite a few Tory MP's fell victims to the tabloid press due to personal scandals which often took over the public's imagination (the most shocking scandal involving auto-erotic asfixiation).

Building into Goldsmith and Aspinall's agenda of recovery, Caine strongly benefited from his radical economic gamble and from the competent management of Chancellor John Major, as the Tory economic team delivered on Caine's pledge to achieve radical tax cuts to reactivate the economy. Major and Caine also led the way in experimenting with very limited and controlled privatization as well as a degree of protectionism for some British industries due to Caine's concern for working-class Britons. The collective effort restored confidence in the pound and in investing in Britain, allowing for the recovery to consolidate. By 1998 the British economy had recovered to pre-1989 levels, and by 1999 itself the United Kingdom was finally growing at a fast rate after years of economic hardships.

The Conservative Government did not waste time either to pursue reforms in the domestic realm, also achieving significant success (if more controversial than their economic results). Caine made good on his promise to crack down on crime and terrorism, lowering crime rates and driving the IRA and hard-left terrorism to the brink of collapse. Substantial reforms were also pursued on social policy through increased welfare policies for the working class and gradual descentralization of Education, promotion of pro-government Trade Unions, allowing Caine to claim he had "moved Britain away from the failures of socialism". The drawback, of course, was the persistent claim that the methods used in fighting crime were dangerously close to violating human rights, a point Short never ceased to make during PMQs.

But if economic and domestic policy had shown remarkable success, foreign policy was nothing short of a disaster for Caine. Inexperienced in foreign policy affairs to an alarming degree and having a terrible relationship with his initial Foreign Secretary Norman Fowler Caine was unable to turn around the perception of the UK as a not yet democratic state, leading to constant criticism from Presidents Gore and Bradley and the ongoing marginalization of the UK inside NATO. European policy also proved highly divisive, with Caine's soft Euroscepticism at odds with his MP's desire for closer links to Europe, leading to a deadlock in the area. But by far the worst crisis was that of Hong Kong, as Caine was unable to break the stand-off with the Chinese he inherited from Goldsmith. Unable to close a deal, the United Kingdom had to see the Chinese being returned Kowloon, and at the end of 1997 the rest of Hong Kong itself as the Royal Navy could not keep it supplied.

The controversy and the blow to British prestige led Caine to consider his resignation, but the Prime Minister decided to fight ahead while replacing Fowler with the more agreeable Malcolm Rifkind. Having renewed his Supply and Confidence deal in early 1997 all the way into 1999, both the UUP and Reform expressed their belief that an election should take pleace in 1999 and not in 2000. Having negotiated an election date for late 1999, Caine decided to focus on the growing economy as key to his strategy and then called an election for October 1999.

[Lumine]

1999 General Election:

October 1999 - Despite losing the election, Short forms a Coalition Government

Conservative Party: 25.8% (266 MP's)
Radical Labour Party: 21.6% (194 MP's)
Democrats: 17.8% (75 MP's)
New Labour: 13.8% (71 MP's)
Reform Party: 11.5% (27 MP's)
Ecology Party: 5.7% (4 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 0.6% (2)
Others: 3.2% (20 MP's)

The 1999 Campaign was considered to be one of the most contentious of the period, particularly due to the closeness of the main political parties in the polls and the increasing strain placed on the First Past the Post system, leading several MP's to rely on ludicrously small majorites to hold onto their seats. Despite Caine's best attempts to make the election a referendum on the booming economy, the narrative of the campaign soon escaped the Conservatives, skillfully turned into a referendum on political change due to the focused fire of New Labour, Ecology, Democrats and Radical Labour on the legacy inherited by Goldsmith and the so called "transition to democracy".

Despite good performances in the debates, it soon became clear the Conservatives and Reform were both suffering from strain after four years in government, giving extra ground for the parties of the left to grow even if it became evident no single party had the strength to win the election on their own. Despite Clare Short proving a highly divisive figure across the UK (both beloved and hated by different elements of society), Radical Labour was able to hold onto their voters and experience limited growth to remain the second strongest party, whereas a strong campaign by David Marquand finally restored the Democrats to prominence and to second place. Blair, undercut by his "presidential style campaign" (which played badly) experienced some losses, and the Reform Party lost almost 3% by comparison to 1995.

On election night Prime Minister Caine and the Conservatives emerged as the largest party once again, but the losses sustained meant the past combination of Conservatives, Reform and UUP was at least twenty seats short of a majority. Caine himself fully expected a left-wing coalition to form, but out of a sense of duty held brief talks with Blair and Marquand who firmly, but politely, told him they could not support a Conservative Government. Caine duly advised King Charles to call for Clare Short (despite rising panic inside the Armed Forces and some elements in Buckingham Palace), and the negotiating process began again.

Having already committed themselves to potential collaboration, Short, Marquand and Blair were constrained by their language during the campaign, and held some intensive talks to debate a Coalition government (as neither Blair nor Marquand felt comfortable allowing Short to govern alone). The main issue continued to be that of political and electoral reform as Radical Labour was gearing towards immediate passage through Parliament, something unacceptable to prominent parts of Democrats and New Labourites and even more concerning to the Palace, with many fearing the potential for another intervention.

In the end, it was Anthony Blair who came up with a compromise solution, and outside Downing Street Short, Marquand and Blair signed the founding document of the so called "Coalition for Democracy".

Britain was about to face the most important referendum of its history.

[Lumine]

2000 Commonwealth of Britain Referendum:

March 2000 - Britain endures a radical transformation, but Diana saves the Monarchy

Republic: 44.4%
Monarchy: 55.6%

AV +: 62.2%
FPTP: 37.8%

Federal Britain: 71.1%
Unionist Britain: 28.9%

House of the People: 60.1%
No Second House: 39.1%

United Ireland: 55.4%
British Northern Ireland: 44.6%

With Blair and Marquand having prevented Prime Minister Short from pushing what could become a constitutional crisis, the referendum campaign started on a tense mood. While Short and Radical Labour expected victory in most if not all of their proposals, it was clear at least two of them would cause considerable amounts of division and strife: the Irish proposal, which had Ulster loyalists up in arms (Reverend Ian Paisley infamously describing Short in very disparaging terms), and the issue of the Monarchy, which seemed to divide the increasingly radical Republican and Monarchist sides of the debate. As most parties combined to support the proposals, other measures such as AV+, the House of the People and particularly the goal of a Federal Britain won large acceptance from the public.

The bombshell that threatened to change things was the revelations (brought by the Radical Labour aligned tabloids) that King Charles was having an affair with Camilla Parker Bowles, explosive news later confirmed by tapes which saw the King's personal ratings collapse as the monarchy looked likely to collapse in the upcoming vote. Fearing the potential for losing the crown for herself and her son William Queen Diana stepped in, knowing full well how much was at risk. Overruling Charles's attempts to forbid her from taking part in the debate, Diana came out and bravely campaigned for the Monarchy, skillfully avoiding to defend her husband while promotion the institution and the benefits it brought to Britain. The public, strongly in favor of the Queen Consort (mockingly described by Anthony Blair as "the People's Queen") listened to her.

On election night voters strongly supported the concept of a Federal Britain, the switch to a new electoral system and the creation of the House of the People. They narrowly voted for Northern Ireland to be returned to the Republic of Ireland (an act which enraged the British right to untold levels) and with 55% of the vote in their favor the Monarchy was saved, if narrowly. Even further, Queen Diana had kept the institution alive on her own merit (The Sun stated "It's Diana Wot Won It") while plunging the knife into Charles, whose public position became untenable.

A few weeks later, on June 22nd, 2000, Charles III of Great Britain abdicated the throne, allowing the now 18 years old Prince William to take over as King William V. Charles had been forced to leave the throne on account of his personal indiscretions, but by delaying his abdication to June he had one final satisfaction: Diana was denied the chance at being Queen Regent for even a day.

[Lumine]

2001 Conservative Leadership Election:

The Gray Man Cometh

First Ballot:

Tim Yeo: 102
John Major: 62
Andrew Lansley: 61
Virginia Bottomley: 41

Final Ballot:

John Major: 166
Tim Yeo: 110

With former Prime Minister Michael Caine already 68 years old, the man who had led the Tories back into government decided the time was ripe for retirement for a new guard to take over, particularly with the division inside the Short-led coalition making an early election a probable matter. John Major and Virginia Bottomley rose from the Shadow Cabinet to stand for either Caine-ism or One Nation Toryism, whereas the Tory Left mustered its forces under Tim Yeo and a group of radical, younger backbenchers gathered under the leadership of Andrew Lansley.

The first ballot showcased how the pro-Europe Conservatives were still a major, strong faction of the party even after ten years of Caine-ism, with Tim Yeo taking a strong lead with more than 100 MP's as Major, Bottomley and Lansley stayed behind despite strong performances themselves. With Major having come second and counting on Bottomley's endorsement (in return for the Deputy Leadership), Lansley chose not to contest a certain victory in the second ballot and withdrew. Free to muster the pro-Caine factions, Major cruised to victory as Yeo failed to expand his base of support. The new leader pledged to take the fight against Radical Labour despite the disadvantages of the new electoral system, and many wondered just how successful he would be.  

[Lumine]

The Short Ministry (1999-2001)

Short fights for radical change, but faces a divided government

Prime Minister: Clare Short
Deputy Prime Minister: David Marquand
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Dave Nellist
Foreign Secretary: Jeremy Corbyn
Home Secretary: Anthony Blair

After extensive negotiations Clare Short was Prime Minister, but forced to lead a Coalition of three parties with a small majority. The historic "Coalition for Democracy" was born of the mutual agreement of Radical Labour, the Democrats and New Labour, the three parties agreeing to hold a far-reaching referendum on key political reform and share the cabinet on a roughly proportional manner. Marquand and Blair became Deputy PM and Home Secretary, whereas Short included former rival Nellist as Chancellor and enlisted newfound ally Jeremy Corbyn to lead the Foreign Office. The Government thus took office, marched with full speed ahead towards the controversial referendums, and remained united for the coming two years.

Taking a hard-line on personal conduct amongst MP's, Short was able to avoid the degree of Tory "sleaze" which had somewhat hurt Caine while in office, steering the Coalition away from scandal and personal issues thanks to the hard work of the Whips Office (ably led by John McDonnell) and a media team installed in Number 10 by Blair which proved extremely able at spin and media manipulation. The other side of the coin was marked by the disunion inside the shaky coalition, as all three parties had considerable policy differences outside the points agreed on their opening document, to the poiint in which several votes began to be lost narrowly during early 2001 (a key fact in the early end of the Coalition).

Economics and domestic policy both showcased this, as Short wished to press ahead with highly radical policies only to be often tempered or overruled by Marquand, Blair or both. On the successful front, Chancellor Nellist was able to re-nationalize several industries set free under the Conservatives and tighten the grip on the economy, which kept itself stable despite losing the high rates of growth under Caine and Major. Blair made good on his promise by to crack down on crime while tempering the excesses of the past governments, and pursued significative social liberalization to point same-sex marriage was close to being legalized. On the negative front, IRA terrorism was replaced by groups of Ulster loyalists angry at the projected handover of Northern Ireland, a lack of economic competitiveness was harming British industry and due to "open door" policies by the Coalition immigration was surging in unexpected levels.

Foreign policy was to be a realm of better results as Foreign Secretary Corbyn enjoyed a stronger hand and less opposition from the Coalition partners, particularly after Short angrily shut the door on Marquand's push for a more pro-European policy. Committing himself to a pacifist, humanitarian foreign policy Corbyn re-normalized the relationship with China by acknowledging the loss of Hong Kong, restored Britain's standing with a good part of the Third World through increased international aid and reached an understanding with New Labour and the Democrats to pull out of NATO again (against the fiery criticism of Major, who considered it a national betrayal).

Alas, the creation of a new electoral system disrupted the balance of power as the Democrats became convinced an early general election was necessary, certain that the AV+ system would correct some of the inbalance and provide them with much larger representation in the House of Commons. What eventually gave Marquand his chance to act was Short's decision along with Corbyn to approach Zyuganov's reforming Soviet Union for a closer relationship, Marquand and Blair both opposing the measure. Short attempted to call what she saw as a bluff by threatening an election, and Marquand promptly accepted.

An angry Prime Minister Short was forced to go to Buckingham Palace to ask William V for a dissolution, which the young King was (privately) pleased to grant.

After two years of coalition government, Britain went to the polls on October 2001.

[Lumine]

2001 General Election:

October 2001 - As Radical Labour is crippled by AV+, John Major rises

Conservative Party: 27.9% (266 MP's)
New Labour: 17.6% (127 MP's)
Democrats: 16.4% (111 MP's)
Radical Labour Party: 14.5% (85 MP's)
Ecology Party: 9.4% (29 MP's)
Reform Party: 8.6% (26 MP's)
Others: 5.6% (27 MP's)

Only two years after the 1999 election Britain was back the polls, and this time under a wildly different system. Constituencies grew much larger as they were reduced in number ad the parties kept a close eye on the PR party list, particularly as the smaller parties prepared to break the regional thresholds required to win seats. The bigger risk appeared to come at the expense of Radical Labour and the Conservatives, who even under the current political landscape of several large parties had been able to hold onto most seats in Parliament. Indeed, most pundits started the build-up to the election wonder just who would be the more punished by AV+: Major or Short.

The campaign itself was just as memorable as the past one due to the new electoral system and the confusion generated between the politicians themselves. Some adapted well to the new system, particularly Blair, Marquand and Porritt (all seen as having led successful, ambitious campaigns), whereas Goldsmith and Short were judged as having ran very poor campaigns or misjudged on the system (Short constantly attacked New Labour and the Democrats, even though her MP's needed those votes to overcome 50%). John Major proved an odd character in the election due to his odd mix of honesty and spontaneity (he memorably campaigned on a soap box) with his relative lack of charisma, a turn off for some voters. Shore was particularly wounded by her approach to the Soviet Union, seen by most voters as unacceptable.

In the end, election night confirmed a disaster for Short and Radical Labour (losing well over 100 MP's) and a bad result for Reform (who only lost an MP, but thousands of voters). Even if the Democrats had lost a few votes the system proved to the full advantage of Marquand and Blair, both parties easily overcoming 100 MP's each and massively expanding their influence in Parliament. Another of the key winners was Jonathon Porritt and the Ecology Party, who saw their new planks on technology and immigration validated as they won over voters and almost reached 30 MP's (including many bright new members). Major proved more successful than expected with his steady campaign: recieving the best Tory result in the popular vote since 1986 (almost 28% of the vote) he absorbed the losses of AV+ and contained them into just 8 less MP's.

The conflicting part was, again, forming a government. Short had the right to go first, but had no way of doing so with just 85 MPs. King Willima called Major next, who failed at putting together a hodge-podge coalition between Reform, Ecology and the Northern Ireland Unionists due to numbers not reaching an actual majority. With the pound weakening, it was felt by many a minority government was undesirable, and so Major reached out to Marquand. For years the goals of the Conservatives and the Democrats had been at odds, but Marquand had failed at becoming the second largest party and the biggest issue (electoral reform) was now something of the past.

After several days of negotiations, Major achieved a breakthrough by promising a referendum on Europe in return for a five year term in office to achieve stability. Tempted by the prospect of remaining in power and becoming Home Secretary for a couple of years before his incoming resignation (Marquand was 67 already), Marquand closed the deal.

Britain now had a Conservative-Democrat coalition government, with Anthony Blair achieving another step as Leader of the Opposition. What would happen next?