The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England
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  The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England
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Author Topic: The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England  (Read 2421 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: October 14, 2017, 12:08:30 AM »

What is the probability that whoever the Democrats nominate for president will win every single county in New England? I think it's possible if the Democrats nominate a strong candidate and if Donald Trump somehow gets renominated.
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2017, 12:15:24 AM »

Obama lost one Maine county even in 2008, so it seems unlikely.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2017, 12:40:09 AM »

Zerrrrrrrro.

If Warren is the nominee, it's possible that she wins all New England districts. But not all counties. Simply no.
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mgop
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2017, 08:45:24 AM »

What is the probability that whoever the Democrats nominate for president will win every single county in New England? I think it's possible if the Democrats nominate a strong candidate and if Donald Trump somehow gets renominated.

they will lose whole states(maine and new hampshire), and you talk about all counties... you lost medications again?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2017, 08:55:55 AM »

34%
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2017, 09:18:34 AM »

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



 
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2017, 09:31:58 AM »

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



I'd say this looks about right. Based off how some of the other counties (i.e. Kennebec and Caledonia) are classified though, I might make Tolland, Merrimack, Addison, and maybe Kent and York tossups.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2017, 04:08:21 PM »

Might make a rating map for all New England towns soon, or Atleast RI MA and NH. Not too familiar with CT, Vermont's towns are too small, and Maine is way too big. If anyone wants to help, that's be great
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2017, 04:19:13 PM »

Very low, since not even Obama could do it. I could see some counties like Kennebec flipping back to the Democrats, but I can't imagine them winning Piscataquis.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2017, 05:01:02 PM »

Quite low.  It's basically equal to the probability of a double digit Dem PV win.
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cvparty
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2017, 06:32:43 PM »

next to impossible unless there’s some true major landslide
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Solid4096
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2017, 07:33:54 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2017, 07:37:10 PM by Solid4096 »

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



 

that map makes you look like a GOP hack.

There is no way that Trump picks up any Counties in MA, VT, or ME, and the counties he flipped in RI and CT are likely to flip back, and he is very likely to lose at least some of the counties he picked up in NH and ME.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2017, 07:50:09 PM »

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



 

that map makes you look like a GOP hack.

There is no way that Trump picks up any Counties in MA, VT, or ME, and the counties he flipped in RI and CT are likely to flip back, and he is very likely to lose at least some of the counties he picked up in NH and ME.

Windham CT is extremely rural and Litchfield naturally leans Republican so i doubt hed lose that. I think hes an under dog in Kent RI. Hillsboro NH would have more of a Johnson republicans come home in Bedford, Litchfield, and Merrimack so Id tilt it republican since Nashua and ManchVegas arent overwhelmingly democrat. Maine's trending rapidly republican and besides Portland I can see that trend continuing. I dont expect him to pick up any Mass counties besides plymouth if he gets extremely lucky and runs up the score in the Bridgewater-Middleboro-Hanover areas to offset Brockton
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2017, 07:57:14 PM »

Obama 08 didn't even do it in 2008. 0%
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2017, 08:13:36 PM »



Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town Smiley
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2017, 09:13:00 PM »

20-30%.
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Harlow
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2017, 09:42:33 PM »



Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town Smiley

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2017, 09:43:34 PM »

0%

Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2017, 09:52:33 PM »

0%

Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.

Trump is not going to carry ME-02 in 2020.

Please stop pretending that Maine trending so hard in 2016 is permanent trends.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2017, 10:04:58 PM »

0%

Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.

Trump is not going to carry ME-02 in 2020.

Please stop pretending that Maine trending so hard in 2016 is permanent trends.

Should we have ignored West Virginia in 2000-2012? Maine is very demographically similar to WV. Extremely white, rural, and working class
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Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2017, 10:08:28 PM »



Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town Smiley

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2017, 11:09:07 PM »

Bernie is the only one with a real chance.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2017, 11:15:23 PM »

0%

Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.

Trump is not going to carry ME-02 in 2020.

Please stop pretending that Maine trending so hard in 2016 is permanent trends.

Should we have ignored West Virginia in 2000-2012? Maine is very demographically similar to WV. Extremely white, rural, and working class

Of course the key thing missing in this analogy is "war on coal" that Fox News hyped for a decade before it finally started to destroy the Dems in Appalachia. There isn't something similar to that in ME-02, let alone ME-02 being much more irreligious than West Virginia.

It does/did have lumbering industries.

Maine is also historically both protectionist and hostile to immigration and those two issues define Trumpism far more so then religion. Rural ME is far more likely to reflect old school New England political calculus, then Vermont or even New Hampshire (b/c of in migration from other states). And that is why it witnessed such a large shift towards the Republicans in 2016.



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PoliticalJunkie23
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2017, 03:00:17 PM »

Might make a rating map for all New England towns soon, or Atleast RI MA and NH. Not too familiar with CT, Vermont's towns are too small, and Maine is way too big. If anyone wants to help, that's be great

I lived in CT for a time and am pretty familiar with the political landscape there (even though 2016 really threw things out of wack, with staunch GOP towns like Greenwich, New Canaan, and Darien going to Hillary and many rural Democratic towns going to Trump). I would make a map for it, but I have no idea how to do that.
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Strudelcutie4427
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2017, 04:43:21 PM »

Might make a rating map for all New England towns soon, or Atleast RI MA and NH. Not too familiar with CT, Vermont's towns are too small, and Maine is way too big. If anyone wants to help, that's be great

I lived in CT for a time and am pretty familiar with the political landscape there (even though 2016 really threw things out of wack, with staunch GOP towns like Greenwich, New Canaan, and Darien going to Hillary and many rural Democratic towns going to Trump). I would make a map for it, but I have no idea how to do that.

Yeah Connecticut had way too many off setting trends last year so idk how to rank them. Although I'd stick the traditional R Gold Coast towns in with atleast Likely D and the traditional D Eastern towns with R ratings. How are you with Vermont though? I dont understand it too well outside the Norwich area and the NE Kingdom.  I struggled a bit with some of the small swingy towns of Western NH too
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