The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England

[JonHawk]

No. As someone said above Obama couldn't win all in 2008 where he was much more likeable than Trump in NE. I can't see Piscataquis County going Dem even with someone like Steve Bullock at the helm.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I don't think all New England counties will go blue with Trump as the GOP nominee, but this is very possible on 2024. Especially if a religious right figure like Pence is the nominee.

[IceSpear]

<0.1%.

As others said, even Obama couldn't do it in 08, and Maine, particularly the district where Obama lost that single county, has trended heavily Republican since then.

[DPKdebator]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.

Isnt Westwood a bit more rich and snooty like Wellesley now? I havent been there in a long time, but when we played them in travel baseball we always thought they were filthy rich. Also in that area, what do you think of Norwood, its working class but it didnt trend to Trump last year. And also Canton. I'm a south shore guy so thats my strong point but once you get out to 95 im not as familar with the towns

[DPKdebator]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.

Isnt Westwood a bit more rich and snooty like Wellesley now? I havent been there in a long time, but when we played them in travel baseball we always thought they were filthy rich. Also in that area, what do you think of Norwood, its working class but it didnt trend to Trump last year. And also Canton. I'm a south shore guy so thats my strong point but once you get out to 95 im not as familar with the towns

Here are the towns in the area I'd say I can speak for:

Dedham: Safe D. Has a good-sized working/middle class population and is very close to Boston, definitely gentrified in the last decade (LOTS of development).

Needham: Safe D. Pretty much the same as Wellesley.

Westwood: Tossup. It's very wealthy, but votes much more Republican than Needham and Wellesley (and is also whiter).

Norwood: Safe D. Pretty much the same as Dedham, but a little less well-off.

Canton: Safe/Likely D. Can't really speak for it well, but it's got the reputation of Westwood without being as nice.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

[Strudelcutie4427]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

[DPKdebator]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

As someone with lots of family in Hingham, I find it kind of ironic that a town so conservative it bans fast-food restaurants managed to vote for Hillary by 25 points.

[super6646]

Even goldwater was able to win a county in New England. No change in hell this happens in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Even goldwater was able to win a county in New England. No change in hell this happens in 2020.

Bill Clinton won every Maine County in 1996, but lost a few in New Hampshire that year.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

As someone with lots of family in Hingham, I find it kind of ironic that a town so conservative it bans fast-food restaurants managed to vote for Hillary by 25 points.

That whole corner of the coast there had the whole "Im too wealthy to vote for Trump" mentality. Like if you look at towns that Romney won and Clinton won big, theyre all filthy rich. Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate, Norwell, and Duxbury. Strangely enough, Trump only won a handfull of coastal towns in all of New England. Idk CT or Northern Maine that well but No coastal RI towns went Trump, only Bourne, Kingston, Saugus, Rowley, and Salisbury in MA, and Seabrook and Hampton Falls in NH

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to happen, Republicans will win at least one county in ME - and I'm definitely not buying this idea that it only trended R because "Trump was a good fit for the district". Poliquin, LePage and Collins all did extremely well there as well.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Not going to happen, Republicans will win at least one county in ME - and I'm definitely not buying this idea that it only trended R because "Trump was a good fit for the district". Poliquin, LePage and Collins all did extremely well there as well.

Collins is definitely an outlier, but regarding the other politicians you're right.
Wasn't there a SSM ballot measure some time ago that the Mainers approved?
How well (or should I say: badly) was it accepted in the 2nd district?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Not going to happen, Republicans will win at least one county in ME - and I'm definitely not buying this idea that it only trended R because "Trump was a good fit for the district". Poliquin, LePage and Collins all did extremely well there as well.

Collins is definitely an outlier, but regarding the other politicians you're right.
Wasn't there a SSM ballot measure some time ago that the Mainers approved?
How well (or should I say: badly) was it accepted in the 2nd district?

The county results for the SSM referendum were almost exactly the same as the 2016 election results, with Trump's '16 counties voting against it and Clinton's '16 counties voting for it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Not going to happen, Republicans will win at least one county in ME - and I'm definitely not buying this idea that it only trended R because "Trump was a good fit for the district". Poliquin, LePage and Collins all did extremely well there as well.

Collins is definitely an outlier, but regarding the other politicians you're right.
Wasn't there a SSM ballot measure some time ago that the Mainers approved?
How well (or should I say: badly) was it accepted in the 2nd district?

The county results for the SSM referendum were almost exactly the same as the 2016 election results, with Trump's '16 counties voting against it and Clinton's '16 counties voting for it.

What I expected. Isn't the former Democratic U.S. representative gay? It would be interesting to know if he had been elected if he had come out earlier.

[MAINEiac4434]

Even goldwater was able to win a county in New England. No change in hell this happens in 2020.

Bill Clinton won every Maine County in 1996, but lost a few in New Hampshire that year.

Largely because Perot split the non-Democrat vote.

[Nichlemn]

Quite low.  It's basically equal to the probability of a double digit Dem PV win.

This. It's clearly not 30% nor 0.001%. Consider that Nate Silver give a Clinton a 6% chance of winning Texas on the eve of the Presidential election. It's a bit like that for Dems, but a bit harder because non-universal swings make it harder to guarantee a win in every county. On the other hand, with a lot of time left before the election, there's more room for outlier scenarios to occur than there was on the eve of the election.