The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England (user search)
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  The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England (search mode)
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Author Topic: The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England  (Read 2476 times)
DPKdebator
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,076
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Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

« on: October 14, 2017, 09:31:58 AM »

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



I'd say this looks about right. Based off how some of the other counties (i.e. Kennebec and Caledonia) are classified though, I might make Tolland, Merrimack, Addison, and maybe Kent and York tossups.
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DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2017, 07:29:28 PM »



Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town Smiley

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.
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DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2017, 08:54:19 PM »



Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town Smiley

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.

Isnt Westwood a bit more rich and snooty like Wellesley now? I havent been there in a long time, but when we played them in travel baseball we always thought they were filthy rich. Also in that area, what do you think of Norwood, its working class but it didnt trend to Trump last year. And also Canton. I'm a south shore guy so thats my strong point but once you get out to 95 im not as familar with the towns

Here are the towns in the area I'd say I can speak for:

Dedham: Safe D. Has a good-sized working/middle class population and is very close to Boston, definitely gentrified in the last decade (LOTS of development).

Needham: Safe D. Pretty much the same as Wellesley.

Westwood: Tossup. It's very wealthy, but votes much more Republican than Needham and Wellesley (and is also whiter).

Norwood: Safe D. Pretty much the same as Dedham, but a little less well-off.

Canton: Safe/Likely D. Can't really speak for it well, but it's got the reputation of Westwood without being as nice.
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DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2017, 02:35:15 PM »

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

As someone with lots of family in Hingham, I find it kind of ironic that a town so conservative it bans fast-food restaurants managed to vote for Hillary by 25 points.
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