The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England

[Strudelcutie4427]

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



 

[Strudelcutie4427]

Might make a rating map for all New England towns soon, or Atleast RI MA and NH. Not too familiar with CT, Vermont's towns are too small, and Maine is way too big. If anyone wants to help, that's be great

[Strudelcutie4427]

Very, very low. I'd say <0.1%

As of right now, here would be my ratings for all New England Counties



 

that map makes you look like a GOP hack.

There is no way that Trump picks up any Counties in MA, VT, or ME, and the counties he flipped in RI and CT are likely to flip back, and he is very likely to lose at least some of the counties he picked up in NH and ME.

Windham CT is extremely rural and Litchfield naturally leans Republican so i doubt hed lose that. I think hes an under dog in Kent RI. Hillsboro NH would have more of a Johnson republicans come home in Bedford, Litchfield, and Merrimack so Id tilt it republican since Nashua and ManchVegas arent overwhelmingly democrat. Maine's trending rapidly republican and besides Portland I can see that trend continuing. I dont expect him to pick up any Mass counties besides plymouth if he gets extremely lucky and runs up the score in the Bridgewater-Middleboro-Hanover areas to offset Brockton

[Strudelcutie4427]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

[Strudelcutie4427]

0%

Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.

Trump is not going to carry ME-02 in 2020.

Please stop pretending that Maine trending so hard in 2016 is permanent trends.

Should we have ignored West Virginia in 2000-2012? Maine is very demographically similar to WV. Extremely white, rural, and working class

[Strudelcutie4427]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

[Strudelcutie4427]

Might make a rating map for all New England towns soon, or Atleast RI MA and NH. Not too familiar with CT, Vermont's towns are too small, and Maine is way too big. If anyone wants to help, that's be great

I lived in CT for a time and am pretty familiar with the political landscape there (even though 2016 really threw things out of wack, with staunch GOP towns like Greenwich, New Canaan, and Darien going to Hillary and many rural Democratic towns going to Trump). I would make a map for it, but I have no idea how to do that.

Yeah Connecticut had way too many off setting trends last year so idk how to rank them. Although I'd stick the traditional R Gold Coast towns in with atleast Likely D and the traditional D Eastern towns with R ratings. How are you with Vermont though? I dont understand it too well outside the Norwich area and the NE Kingdom.  I struggled a bit with some of the small swingy towns of Western NH too

[Strudelcutie4427]

Here's my current town by town ratings map for Massachusetts, the the 3rd most likely state to have a clean town sweep (after VT and Hawai'i) Even that seems impossible. Feel free to ask if you want to know about a certain town

From MA, this looks fairly accurate to me. I think I'd put Mashpee in the lean Dem category but that's pretty nitpicky.

I flipped Mashpee back and forth when I was making it lol. It was one of the towns i had trouble deciding, along with Boxford, Braintree, Peabody, and Scituate. But all in all, the Mass town map was much easier than the NH one I'm doing now. Much fewer tiny swingy towns

I'd make Westwood a tossup... it's very similar to Walpole demographically and there's no way it is safe D.

Isnt Westwood a bit more rich and snooty like Wellesley now? I havent been there in a long time, but when we played them in travel baseball we always thought they were filthy rich. Also in that area, what do you think of Norwood, its working class but it didnt trend to Trump last year. And also Canton. I'm a south shore guy so thats my strong point but once you get out to 95 im not as familar with the towns

[Strudelcutie4427]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

[Strudelcutie4427]

Walpole
Wilmington
North Reading

the anti-bellwether trio

Wonder if that will hold up again in 2020. I think some of the South Shore towns like Duxbury, Cohasset, Hingham, and Marshfield might be the same way

As someone with lots of family in Hingham, I find it kind of ironic that a town so conservative it bans fast-food restaurants managed to vote for Hillary by 25 points.

That whole corner of the coast there had the whole "Im too wealthy to vote for Trump" mentality. Like if you look at towns that Romney won and Clinton won big, theyre all filthy rich. Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate, Norwell, and Duxbury. Strangely enough, Trump only won a handfull of coastal towns in all of New England. Idk CT or Northern Maine that well but No coastal RI towns went Trump, only Bourne, Kingston, Saugus, Rowley, and Salisbury in MA, and Seabrook and Hampton Falls in NH