0%
Unless Trump isn't the nominee (which I doubt at this point), he's going to carry ME-02, albeit by a much reduced margin...which should provide no coattails for Poliquin.
Trump is not going to carry ME-02 in 2020.
Please stop pretending that Maine trending so hard in 2016 is permanent trends.
Should we have ignored West Virginia in 2000-2012? Maine is very demographically similar to WV. Extremely white, rural, and working class
Of course the key thing missing in this analogy is "war on coal" that Fox News hyped for a decade before it finally started to destroy the Dems in Appalachia. There isn't something similar to that in ME-02, let alone ME-02 being much more irreligious than West Virginia.
It does/did have lumbering industries.
Maine is also historically both protectionist and hostile to immigration and those two issues define Trumpism far more so then religion. Rural ME is far more likely to reflect old school New England political calculus, then Vermont or even New Hampshire (b/c of in migration from other states). And that is why it witnessed such a large shift towards the Republicans in 2016.
