Rate Your Home County(ies)

[PragmaticPopulist]

My home county (Howard, MD) is Safe D at the federal level. At the state and local levels, its more of a Tossup. What would you rate your home county (or counties, if you go to college in a different one or whatever).

[Xing]

King is Safe D through and through. Pierce, where I lived a couple years ago, is Likely D at the federal level, Toss-Up/Tilt D at the statewide level.

[TPIG]

Dekalb County (my home county) is safe D. Baldwin County (where I go to school) is a tossup going 49.5% for Hillary to 47.8% for Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

College (and hopeful permanent residence): Safe R on all levels

Old Home: Safe D, one of three counties that never voted Reagan even once in the state.

[Green Line]

Safe Stupid

[_]

Cook County

What the hell do you think.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Lexington: Safe R
Newberry: Lean R (Safe R nationally but in a State or local race a D still has a chance to win)
Richland: Safe D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Collin County, lived there from birth to 1 year old, Safe R on all levels

Denton County, lived there from 1 year old to 5 years old, Safe R on all levels

Dallas County, living here ever since I was 5 years old, Safe D on federal level, Likely D on local level, once in a little while locally, a GOPer might eek out a victory in a bloody wave year, besides that, the Likely D is a lot closer to Safe D than Lean D.

[scutosaurus]

Fulton County is Safe D on the federal level. On a local level, it really depends on the area: some parts (South Atlanta, South Fulton) are Safe D, while others (Alpharetta, Johns Creek) are Likely R. Where I live, in North Atlanta, is Lean R, drifting towards a Tossup area sometime in the (hopefully near) future.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Worcester County (2001-2013) - Likely D at federal level, R-leaning tossup at state level. I'm still shook re: Scott Brown winning with more than 60% in 2010, though.
Mecklenburg County (2013-present) - Safe D at both federal and state level, but used to be less so.

[Lord Admirale]

These are all the places I've lived

Bergen County, New Jersey - Lean D on federal, Tossup on state
Monmouth County, New Jersey - Likely R on both federal and state
Somerset County, New Jersey - Tossup on federal, Lean R on state
Manhattan, New York - Solid D on both federal and state
York County, South Carolina - Solid R on both federal and state

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Cook County

What the hell do you think.

Safe Stupid

[dead0man]

Madison County IL is a strong, longterm D so full of corruption....which is why so many lawsuits happen there....all the judges are bought and paid for.

Douglas County NE goes both ways, regularly.  A lot less corruption.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

My home county (Howard Baltimore, MD) is Safe D at the federal level. At the state and local levels, its more of a Tossup. What would you rate your home county (or counties, if you go to college in a different one or whatever).

Neighboring County; almost identical politics.

[Kamala]

Safe R. It didn’t even vote for Johnson in ‘64. I think the last it voted for a Democrat was FDR’s first re-election.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Fairfield County, CT - historically WASP-y R county that's consistently supported Democrats since the 90s.  Home of Chris Shays who was the last Republican Connecticut sent to Congress.

(For the record, I'm proud to say that while I'm from there I am not gold coast scum.)

[they don't love you like i love you]

Hennepin County. Duh.

[JGibson]

Madison County IL is a strong, longterm D so full of corruption....which is why so many lawsuits happen there....all the judges are bought and paid for.

Douglas County NE goes both ways, regularly.  A lot less corruption.

As a fellow Madison County resident, I believe the county is Likely D but trending R at the countywide offices level, as Repubs are beginning to make some gains here (evidenced by the County Board control and Chairman spot flipping R in 2016).

At the Presidential level, historically, it favored the Dems, but the GOP has won the last two elections here.
Contested Primaries:
Dem: Kerry 2004, Obama 2008, Sanders 2016.
GOP: McCain 2008, Santorum 2012, Trump 2016.

At the US Senate level, it's a tossup, as Durbin won the Class II seat in 2008, but lost it in 2014. Obama won the Class III seat in 2004 for the Dems, Kirk won it in 2010 for the GOP, and Duckworth won it in 2016 for the Dems.

At the US House level, during the current redistricting cycle, the Dems used to have the IL-12 seat until 2014, while IL-13 and IL-15 have stayed in GOP's hands, although IL-13 was a close one in 2012. The prior cycle had IL-12 and IL-17 Dem, while the now-defunct IL-19 was GOP.

At the statewide offices level, it has usually favored the GOP in recent years, although Dems can still win some races occasionally and were the favorites to win them prior to 2010.
Gubernatorially, it is swingish, as the GOP has won the last two in this county in 2010 and 2014, but the Dems had won the county in 1998, 2002, and 2006.

Other statewides:
- Munger won the Comptroller special in 2016 in the county.
- in 2014, Baar Topinka [Comptroller], Schimpf [AG], and Cross [Treas] won for the GOP in this county, while White [SoS] won for the Dems in Madison County.

At the state legislature level, the seats in Springfield serving the county are represented by both parties, with the western third (Alton, Wood River, Granite City) generally favoring the Dems, the Collinsville-Maryville-Glen Carbon-Edwardsville IL 159 corridor tends to be swingy, while the eastern half (Troy, Marine, Highland) generally favor the GOP.

[bagelman]

Summit is a fairly inelastic Safe D county. In the 80s it went Carter-Reagan-Dukakis.

[The Govanah Jake]

Nassau county would probably be rated as lean Dem. It may have been realitively close from 2004 onwards and people like Trump and Romney were close to winning it but it always comes home to the democrat in most cases in congressional/statewide elections and general elections. It was something like D+3 in 2016 and R+1/D+1 in 2012 so it hovers around the national average right now. Historically it had been a Republican stronghold and I believe HW even won it in 1992 and voted more then 60% in most federal elections and even up to 70% from 1920-1988. Though with the Clinton takeover of the party it has gone from its republican roots to a more democratic leaning county even if the demographics should favor a republican as it mostly white which many favorable white ethnic groups like Italians and Irish living in the county. There is also a large Jewish voting block which have always been dem leaning but with continued collapse of the party among Jews have only exacerbated the problem they have here. Though the big feature that defines the county is its massive suburbs home to the first in the United States and this should definitely boost republicans and did up until the 90s when there hold on the suburbs dwindled after increased growth from democrats. Going into the future the county is continuing to slowly become more multicultural and is only 65% non Hispanic white now. For the Republican Party to win in my estimation that have to secularize as the county is not the most lean to religious fundamentalism and then to moderate there whole tone on social issues and maybe economic issues but that may not be nessscary. Also they should at least reach out to minoritie groups if they want to better there odds here as 35% are minorities and it helps to do better with 35% of the population. Also if they make asians rebecome a republican voting block then that could be a big benefit as it is fast growing in the county. A sort of rockefeller republican type party could regain Nassau as a republican voting one but it's days of voting 60%+ republican is probably over.

[dead0man]

Madison County IL is a strong, longterm D so full of corruption....which is why so many lawsuits happen there....all the judges are bought and paid for.

Douglas County NE goes both ways, regularly.  A lot less corruption.

As a fellow Madison County resident, I believe the county is Likely D but trending R at the countywide offices level, as Repubs are beginning to make some gains here (evidenced by the County Board control and Chairman spot flipping R in 2016).

I stand corrected.  It used to be solid D, but I've been gone 23 years now.

[JA]

St. Johns County is solid R at all levels. Its Presidential voting history is very conservative, having even voted for George Wallace in 1968...

2016: 64-31% Trump
2012: 68-31% Romney
2008: 65-34% McCain
2004: 69-31% Bush
2000: 65-32% Bush
1996: 56-34-09% Dole
1992: 51-31-19% Bush
1988: 70-29% Bush
1984: 71-29% Reagan
1980: 61-35% Reagan
1976: 52-46% Carter
1972: 78-22% Nixon
1968: 41-34-24% Wallace
1964: 63-37% Goldwater
1960: 58-43% Kennedy

[thumb21]

Bedfordshire, where I live is Lean Conservative. They won it by 50-42. It was last won by Labour in 2001.
Hertfordshire where I work and went to school is Safe Conservative, they won it by 54-32 and has never been won by Labour and was last won by someone other than the Tories (Liberals) well over a century ago.

However, Hertfordshire is clearly more elastic than Bedforshire so in future, that could change.

[Torie]

Columbia County has a Dem PVI of a couple of points in state and federal contests, and a Pub PVI of a couple of points in local contests. (Putting aside one county judge, all the county offices, sheriff, coroner, treasurer, county clerk, and DA are controlled by the Pubs, and have been since rocks cooled, with a Pub registration required to get a county job (the Dems think this execrable practice is still extant, while the Pubs deny it). The Dems are trying hard, very hard, to elect a Dem sheriff this November, but will probably fall short and need to wait until no incumbent is running for re-election to have a real shot at it.) The county can swing, and tends to give a big boost to candidates with local ties to either the region or the county (the county is quite in love with itself). The incumbent congressman Faso is from Columbia County, and even though the county trended to Trump (still won by Clinton by about 5 points), Faso ran way ahead of Trump and carried the county by about 5 points. In NY-19 as a whole, Faso and Trump ran about the same.

The county is slowly trending Dem. The Dems became competitive when a NY court about 10 years ago ruled that folks could vote from their vacation homes. Suddenly a bunch of well to do liberal City folks began voting in Columbia County. The Pubs are still steamed about it, and challenge absentee ballots of such vacation home voters, I guess thinking that some day another lawsuit might be filed over the issue.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Danville City. Majority minority.