Rate Your Home County(ies)

[tallguy23]

LA County is safe D of course.

[Politician]

Norfolk County, MA
Titanium D county that voted for McGovern in 1972 and hasn't voted Republican since Reagan in 1984. Wealthy and well-educated, it swung over 10 points towards Democrats in 2016.

Yeah...lol.

[Sirius_]

Anderson is safe R. One of the most Republican in the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

My county is obvious so I did the entire states of Wisconsin and Minnesota

[Peanut]

Titanium D.

[Boobs]

Collin, TX - Lean R (hot take: trump will do worse than Cruz) but after our local elections in 2019 i will be able to tell you more

[wesmoorenerd]

Montgomery County is Titanium D on all levels. My state senate district went uncontested this year

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Black Hawk County is likely D. It takes a very good Republican to swing the county to Atlas blue. That has been the case for a while, and that will continue to be the case for years to come. It's not impossible, but unlikely.

[MassachusettsModerate]

Bristol County, MA

Federal elections: Safe D
State elections: Tossup

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Williamson County is still Titanium R, even though it's a well-off suburb

[thumb21]

Bedfordshire

Lean Conservative

Trending towards Labour.

[Former President tack50]

Las Palmas province is pretty much a national bellweather, so tossup/ tilt PSOE. If NCa runs alone though, it moves automatically to Lean PP as the left wing vote will be split.

By block (to try and simulate a 2 party system) it's only lean right (PP-Cs-Vox) because I expect Vox to underperform here; otherwise it would be likely right. (and it would indeed move to likely right if NCa runs alone, unless you place them on the left wing block)

[ON Progressive]

Oxford County (where I've lived my whole life) is safely Conservative, both federally and provincially.

[bagelman]

Safe D. If Ohio really was Missouri as ya'll seem to think, then Summit would start to really shift towards R's. That ain't happening.

[PSOL]

Cook County

What the hell do you think.

[Lourdes]

Burlington County is Safe D at the federal level, but the GOP frequently wins local elections.

[Del Tachi]

Lee County, MS:  Safe R
Oktibbeha County, MS:  Lean D
District of Columbia:  Safe D
Clarke County, GA:  Safe D

[NewYorkExpress]

Nassau County, New York

We may have elected a Democrat as County Supervisor in 2019, but we are still a Tilt R county, and I wouldn't be stunned if Trump carried the county in 2020 (unless he's running against Gillibrand, in which case I have no idea who wins).

[Mr. Smith]

Alameda Co., CA: Epicenter of Antifa two years ago, 'nuff said

Brazos Co., TX: Safe R

[Fubart Solman]

Sacramento County, California: Usually Safe Dem. The county is slightly to the right of the state. For example, Poizner narrowly beat Lara for Insurance Commissioner. Sacramento has nearly the entirety of the 6th Congressional District (Matsui) and the entire 7th District (Bera). CA-06 is safe Dem. CA-07 has been seen as something of a tossup, but it’s generally been trending Dem. CA-07 is mostly suburbs of Sacramento like Elk Grove, Folsom, and Citrus Heights. The first two are generally more educated, while the latter is less so. I recall that Trump did fairly well in Citrus Heights in 2016. Folsom has long been a conservative city, but that is waning as Dems do better in the suburbs and Folsom becomes more diverse. Brown narrowly beat Kashkari in Folsom in 2014. The bits of Garamendi’s and McNerney’s districts that seep into more rural parts of the county make up very small portions of the county (less than 20,000 votes). Garamendi actually did pretty well, looking at the results. He only trailed by about 500 out of 10,000 votes. McNernet trailed by 1,500 out of 9,000 or so.

[HillGoose]

Jackson County, TN: Safe R. Actually voted for Obama in 2008, but at this point I don't think any Democrat could win this old Dixiecrat county.

[TJ in Oregon]

Erie, Ohio: Tossup. Has been a Likely D county on the federal level for decades, but took a yuge swing toward Trump and has been electing more Republicans on the state and local level of late. In a climate increasingly polarized between larger metropolitan areas and everywhere else, even smaller urban areas, Erie is no longer safely in the Dem camp. How permanent all of these transitions are remains to be seen, so I would rate it as a tossup right now. If pressed I would tilt towards R for 2020.

Dane, Wisconsin: Safe D. Basically inconceivable how a Republican could win it in any race of significance. Beyond basically any scandal territory.

Washington, Oregon: Safe D. Also more or less impossible for a Republican to win, but less impossible than Dane. Perhaps it could be interesting with an extraordinarily scandal-ridden Democrat. Still well into Safe D territory, and every demographic factor suggests it will become even more safe D.

[Xeuma]

Cuyahoga County, Ohio: lol safe d

Lorain County, Ohio: was likely D for decades but Trump came within 300 votes of victory. in the midterms, it resumed its normal voting behavior so its yet to be seen how permeant the swing was.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Worcester County, Massachusetts: Likely R in a close race, Likely D in practice
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina: Safe D

[RINO Tom]

Johnson, IA (Current): Safe D
One of the most underrated Safe D counties in the nation.  The type of place that has a commitment to the Democratic Party outweighing its commitment to any specific ideology (i.e., progressivism).  When VEEP says a place would vote for a "bowl of hair" with a D next to its name, think Iowa City.  It voted 65.3% for Clinton with 7.4% for third parties, and it has not supported a Republican nominee for President since Richard Nixon in 1960, which it did by under 400 votes.  Since 1896, it has voted Republican in only 1920, 1924, 1928, 1952, 1956 and 1960.  It gave McGovern almost 58% of the vote in 1972.

Peoria, IL (Original): Likely D
The high Black population is what keeps the city of Peoria from ever going Republican, and a typical "Urban White" population is what pads the margin.  The rest of the county has a very suburban feel and is ruby red.  It gave Clinton 48.1% (a 3.0% win for the Democrat) with 6.8% for third parties.  It hasn't voted for the Republican nominee for President since George H. W. Bush in 1988, but before that it voted Republican in every election from 1944 to 1988, with the exception of 1964's LBJ landslide victory.  One could be forgiven for thinking it might trend Republican with the combination of potential further gains by the GOP among "WWC" voters and the city itself losing population as a share of the county, but most of the growth is - IMO - counterbalancing each other: the two areas that are growing are the urban core of the Warehouse District and Downtown and the outer areas that are more Republican.  Probably a wash.  Additionally, much of the "suruban" or exurban growth is happening in surrounding counties.

My precitions for 2020 without knowing the nominees (but assuming the Republican is Trump):

Johnson, IA: 66.5% DEM, 27.9% GOP
Peoria, IL: 49.0% DEM, 44.8% GOP