CO-SEN 2020: Gardner faces three early challengers

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats Dustin Leitzel and Derrick Blanton are in. Gardner also faces a primary challenge from Jerry Natividad. If Hickenlooper gets in, Gardner is DOA.

[Holmes]

Agreed.

A bit early for Democrats to start announcing though.

[I’m not Stu]

People said this about RoJo too.

Johnson was unopposed in the GOP primary in a year with an incumbent Democratic President. Unlike Johnson, Gardner has a primary opponent in a year with a Republican President.

[Heisenberg]

People said this about RoJo too.

You can't compare the two. The difference is, while Wisconsin is trending R, Colorado is trending D, and by 2029, it will likely be more D, a better year for Democrats than 2014, and Mark Udall was pretty weak (and still managed to overperform the polls).

[Free Bird]

People said this about RoJo too.

Johnson was unopposed in the GOP primary in a year with an incumbent Democratic President. Unlike Johnson, Gardner has a primary opponent in a year with a Republican President.

Don't start retconning that everyone thought Johnson was toast. Even I did. Gardner is certainly the most endangered incumbent, but we all know what a godly campaigner he is.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People said this about RoJo too.

[Young Conservative]

Excuse me if I don't count senators dead on arrival when its 3 years out, they are the establishment darling, and will raise unlimited amounts of cash.

[fluffypanther19]

People said this about RoJo too.

[DrScholl]

Colorado is a lot different than Wisconsin and Gardner is proving to be a horrible fit for the state.

Somewhat related, he nearly ran down Claire McCaskill, but she had a comeback. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/357029-mccaskill-zings-gop-senator-over-car-incident

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ron Johnson's obituary was being written almost as soon as he took office.


I remember that certainly by 2013, he was listed as the most endangered incumbent by some, who thought him more dead than Kirk.

[I’m not Stu]

People said this about RoJo too.

Johnson was unopposed in the GOP primary in a year with an incumbent Democratic President. Unlike Johnson, Gardner has a primary opponent in a year with a Republican President.

Don't start retconning that everyone thought Johnson was toast. Even I did. Gardner is certainly the most endangered incumbent, but we all know what a godly campaigner he is.

Johnson had no early challengers. Having early challengers is a bad sign for vulnerable incumbents. Unlike WI-2016; two Democrats and a Republican challenger declared for CO-2020, before 2018. Gardner doesn't have the luck of having an incumbent Democratic President.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Ron Johnson's obituary was being written almost as soon as he took office.


I remember that certainly by 2013, he was listed as the most endangered incumbent by some, who thought him more dead than Kirk.

At one point I predicted Kirk narrowly pulling it out with Johnson getting Blanched.

That was before anyone had announced for president.

[MT Treasurer]

The 2020 map is already bad enough for Rs (with vulnerable seats in MT, NC, AK, GA, etc.), so they shouldn't waste too much money here if it's looking like a lost cause.

I could see Gardner running 1 or maybe 2 points ahead of Trump, but that's about it. Likely D, unless CO is somehow a winnable state for Rs in the presidential race. Too polarized, plus I'm not convinced that 2020 will really be a better year for Rs than 2018.

[I’m not Stu]

Ron Johnson was unopposed in the primary, while no Democrat declared early. Early Democratic challengers (especially when there's also an early GOP challenger) are a signs of a weak GOP incumbent likely to be defeated. Gardner faces a challenge Johnson didn't face. Gardner in 2020 is not like Johnson in 2016.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ron Johnson was unopposed in the primary, while no Democrat declared early. Early Democratic challengers (especially when there's also an early GOP challenger) are a signs of a weak GOP incumbent likely to be defeated. Gardner faces a challenge Johnson didn't face. Gardner in 2020 is not like Johnson in 2016.

Many expected Feingold was running again, and that is why there weren't early challengers. Everyone was waiting to see what Feingold would do.

[I’m not Stu]

Ron Johnson was unopposed in the primary, while no Democrat declared early. Early Democratic challengers (especially when there's also an early GOP challenger) are a signs of a weak GOP incumbent likely to be defeated. Gardner faces a challenge Johnson didn't face. Gardner in 2020 is not like Johnson in 2016.

Many expected Feingold was running again, and that is why there weren't early challengers. Everyone was waiting to see what Feingold would do.

Johnson didn't even have a token primary challenger like Gardner does. Unlike Wisconsin, Colorado is trending Democratic.

[Talleyrand]

Gardner will win reelection. He is extremely politically skilled and charismatic - in some ways he's an even better fit for Colorado than Marco Rubio is for Florida.

He is going to clobber Perlmutter, even if the final margin is close. It won't be pretty.

[I’m not Stu]

Gardner will win reelection. He is extremely politically skilled and charismatic - in some ways he's an even better fit for Colorado than Marco Rubio is for Florida.

He is going to clobber Perlmutter, even if the final margin is close. It won't be pretty.

Gardner's approval rating is low. Perlmutter might not be Gardner's November opponent, especially if Hickenlooper declares.

[IceSpear]

Gardner will win reelection. He is extremely politically skilled and charismatic - in some ways he's an even better fit for Colorado than Marco Rubio is for Florida.

He is going to clobber Perlmutter, even if the final margin is close. It won't be pretty.

Gardner was supposed to clobber Mark Udall (who ran such a bad campaign he became a punchline) in a massive pro R wave. Didn't happen.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Tom Tancredo launch a primary challenge in 2020?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Hickenlooper runs, he wins unless 2020 is like 1980 in terms of political climate. But I expect him to go for the Presidency instead. Of course, if he flames out early in the primary season, he could just switch over to the senate race because the senate primary is held in June of the election year.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ron Johnson was unopposed in the primary, while no Democrat declared early. Early Democratic challengers (especially when there's also an early GOP challenger) are a signs of a weak GOP incumbent likely to be defeated. Gardner faces a challenge Johnson didn't face. Gardner in 2020 is not like Johnson in 2016.

Many expected Feingold was running again, and that is why there weren't early challengers. Everyone was waiting to see what Feingold would do.

Johnson didn't even have a token primary challenger like Gardner does. Unlike Wisconsin, Colorado is trending Democratic.

Doesn't change the fact that the lack of early Democratic challengers was because many expected a rematch with Feingold.

[I’m not Stu]

Ron Johnson was unopposed in the primary, while no Democrat declared early. Early Democratic challengers (especially when there's also an early GOP challenger) are a signs of a weak GOP incumbent likely to be defeated. Gardner faces a challenge Johnson didn't face. Gardner in 2020 is not like Johnson in 2016.

Many expected Feingold was running again, and that is why there weren't early challengers. Everyone was waiting to see what Feingold would do.

Johnson didn't even have a token primary challenger like Gardner does. Unlike Wisconsin, Colorado is trending Democratic.

Doesn't change the fact that the lack of early Democratic challengers was because many expected a rematch with Feingold.

Wisconsin is more friendly to Republicans than Colorado.

[Badger]

Colorado is a lot different than Wisconsin and Gardner is proving to be a horrible fit for the state.

Somewhat related, he nearly ran down Claire McCaskill, but she had a comeback. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/357029-mccaskill-zings-gop-senator-over-car-incident

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Effing lame. Gardner barely came within 10 yards of her.

[DrScholl]

Colorado is a lot different than Wisconsin and Gardner is proving to be a horrible fit for the state.

Somewhat related, he nearly ran down Claire McCaskill, but she had a comeback. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/357029-mccaskill-zings-gop-senator-over-car-incident

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Effing lame. Gardner barely came within 10 yards of her.

Ok.