Who will win the Pennsylvania senate race?
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  Who will win the Pennsylvania senate race?
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
#1
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
 
#2
Lou Barletta (R)
 
#3
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 124

Author Topic: Who will win the Pennsylvania senate race?  (Read 3594 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: October 15, 2017, 07:12:44 PM »
« edited: October 15, 2017, 07:41:04 PM by PittsburghSteel »

Who will win the Pennsylvania senate race next year? I will be casting my ballot for Casey.

In my opinion, this race is Bob's. I cannot ever see a Casey losing reelection in Pennsylvania. Plus he's very popular and it's going to be a blue year.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2017, 07:18:56 PM »

Let's put it this way. I wouldn't be shocked if Barletta wins, considering his more populist aspects, but I'm not holding my breath, either. He'd be in a stronger position if it were President Clinton. Strongly Tilts, Hair Away From Leans D.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2017, 09:54:13 PM »

In a Clinton midterm, I think Casey would lose. In the current environment he most likely wins.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2017, 11:09:22 PM »

In a Clinton midterm, I think Casey would lose. In the current environment he most likely wins.
Basically this. I give Casey’s ceiling in this race to be about 5 maybe, considering the state’s rightward shift, and Barletta’s ceiling to be maybe 1-3.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2017, 11:11:06 PM »

This would have been a race Barletta would have probably won in a Clinton midterm, but I think Casey will win with Trump being in office.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2017, 11:43:23 PM »

Casey, by about 6-7 points. Barletta is an @rsehole.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2017, 12:01:26 AM »

This is not a competitive race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2017, 03:16:48 AM »

Casey, as long as he actually runs a campaign this time.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2017, 12:14:20 AM »


Agreed. Not with Trump in the White House instead of Clinton. Donnie's WWC support has dropped precipitously nationally and in PA.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2017, 12:35:08 AM »

Casey, as long as he actually runs a campaign this time.

Which is far from a certainty.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2017, 03:15:37 PM »

Probably Casey
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2017, 11:22:44 PM »

Unless Casey refuses to campaign (which, while not impossible given how his 2008 race went, but unlikely given Trump won PA), he will win by 4-8 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2017, 12:12:10 AM »

Unless Casey refuses to campaign (which, while not impossible given how his 2008 race went, but unlikely given Trump won PA), he will win by 4-8 points.

*2012

He ran a great campaign in 2006, which is what I think you meant.
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2017, 12:16:04 AM »

Unless Casey refuses to campaign (which, while not impossible given how his 2008 race went, but unlikely given Trump won PA), he will win by 4-8 points.

*2012

He ran a great campaign in 2006, which is what I think you meant.

Yeah, I meant to refer to his 2012 campaign, where he took his victory completely for granted.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2017, 05:39:24 PM »

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2017, 06:07:00 PM »

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him

As long as Casey doesn't completely collapse in the rest of the state like Hillary did he should be fine. Luckily Casey is uniquely positioned to outperform generic D just as he did in 2006/2012. Considering Barletta is a single issue anti-immigration Trumpian from the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, there's no doubt he's going to try to replicate Trump's exact victory path. But there's little margin for error there even in the best of days, much less with Trump's approval in the gutter.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2017, 08:10:30 PM »

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him

As long as Casey doesn't completely collapse in the rest of the state like Hillary did he should be fine. Luckily Casey is uniquely positioned to outperform generic D just as he did in 2006/2012. Considering Barletta is a single issue anti-immigration Trumpian from the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, there's no doubt he's going to try to replicate Trump's exact victory path. But there's little margin for error there even in the best of days, much less with Trump's approval in the gutter.

The Scranton Wilkes-Barre Area is 1) the last hold out for the Dems in "the rest of the state" and 2) the one Casey is most likely to outperform Clinton massively in.

Having a local candidate who is immensely popular in that area and not just with Republicans (Barletta's father was a Democrat and he himself was nominated by both parties for Mayor in 2007), is I would think advantageous. Barletta's district also was redrawn stretching it down to the suburbs of Harrisburg, which means he has had to maintain a presence is two key areas of the state (NE and Harrisburg metro).  Barletta needs to work to raise his presence out west, and in the Philly suburbs, but I cannot help but think that Barletta is being prematurely written off as some far right loon who will get decimated, along with once again failing to grasp the importance of the immigration issue for working class voters. Especially when it comes to the issues of large increases in legal immigration and protecting sanctuary cities such as Philadelphia, which Casey has voted to do multiple times.

Toomey ran hard on this issue of sanctuary cities in the last election and his out performing of Trump in the Philly suburbs has been well noted. For liberals who have often noted the effect of dog whistles in the past to motivate suburban voters, they would be remiss to think that the immigration issue plays only to non-college whites in Hazelton. Some of the biggest immigration restrictionists, such as Brian Bilbray, Tom Tancredo, Dana Rohrabacher, and many others including many moderate Republicans from places like PA and NJ, came from high end surburban districts with relatively high levels of education attainment. While it is definitely so that Barletta should broaden his message to include other priorities as well, underestimating Barletta, and failing to comprehend the broad impact of the immigration issue on the electorate, ignores completely the lessons of 2016.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2017, 04:44:47 AM »

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him

As long as Casey doesn't completely collapse in the rest of the state like Hillary did he should be fine. Luckily Casey is uniquely positioned to outperform generic D just as he did in 2006/2012. Considering Barletta is a single issue anti-immigration Trumpian from the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, there's no doubt he's going to try to replicate Trump's exact victory path. But there's little margin for error there even in the best of days, much less with Trump's approval in the gutter.

The Scranton Wilkes-Barre Area is 1) the last hold out for the Dems in "the rest of the state" and 2) the one Casey is most likely to outperform Clinton massively in.

Having a local candidate who is immensely popular in that area and not just with Republicans (Barletta's father was a Democrat and he himself was nominated by both parties for Mayor in 2007), is I would think advantageous. Barletta's district also was redrawn stretching it down to the suburbs of Harrisburg, which means he has had to maintain a presence is two key areas of the state (NE and Harrisburg metro).  Barletta needs to work to raise his presence out west, and in the Philly suburbs, but I cannot help but think that Barletta is being prematurely written off as some far right loon who will get decimated, along with once again failing to grasp the importance of the immigration issue for working class voters. Especially when it comes to the issues of large increases in legal immigration and protecting sanctuary cities such as Philadelphia, which Casey has voted to do multiple times.

Toomey ran hard on this issue of sanctuary cities in the last election and his out performing of Trump in the Philly suburbs has been well noted. For liberals who have often noted the effect of dog whistles in the past to motivate suburban voters, they would be remiss to think that the immigration issue plays only to non-college whites in Hazelton. Some of the biggest immigration restrictionists, such as Brian Bilbray, Tom Tancredo, Dana Rohrabacher, and many others including many moderate Republicans from places like PA and NJ, came from high end surburban districts with relatively high levels of education attainment. While it is definitely so that Barletta should broaden his message to include other priorities as well, underestimating Barletta, and failing to comprehend the broad impact of the immigration issue on the electorate, ignores completely the lessons of 2016.

Trump destroyed Clinton in Luzerne County and only narrowly lost to her in Lackawanna County. I'd hardly call that area a hold out for Dems in the context of the 2016 presidential race. My point was that even if Barletta did manage to match Trump's performance there (which as you said, is far from a given due to Casey's appeal and Trump's declining approval rating) he still has a very tight rope to walk. Trump completely taking a wrecking ball to Clinton in everywhere except Philly, the Philly suburbs, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Happy Valley led to a 0.7% win. Is Barletta going to have any more appeal than Trump did in any of those areas, particularly when he's up against a stronger opponent in Casey who has consistently outperformed generic D in the past? Stranger things have happened obviously, but it seems unlikely. That's why I'd put the race at "likely D." I don't think he's a "far right loon who will get decimated" (well, I DO think he's a far right loon and I HOPE he gets decimated, but you get my point Tongue) He's clearly a very serious candidate and Casey can't take anything for granted like he did in 2012 (thus my initial comment in the thread), but he seems like a solid favorite. As for the margin, I could only see Barletta getting decimated if a truly toxic environment for the GOP sinks him. It will likely be a competitive race otherwise.

Toomey may have run against sanctuary cities, but it was never his reason d'etre like Barletta. He's a Club for Growth conservative through and through. Always has been, always will be. That's why Toomey won Bucks County and Chester County while Trump lost them, yet got thumped in Lackawanna and carried Luzerne by far less than Trump did. It is pretty interesting, despite having similar margins at first glance, to see the different paths Trump/Toomey had to victory. Considering Barletta is from the Northeast and has been Trump-esque on immigration since back when Trump was a Democrat, it's pretty obvious which path he's going to try to emulate.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2017, 12:50:25 PM »

I voted "other", since we don't know if Barletta will get the nomination. Casey will probably win the Democratic nomination, but I hope that he is primaried, because if he is I will likely vote for his opponent assuming that he or she is a progressive. If it's between Casey and Barletta one of them would probably win, but it's too soon to predict which one.
Obviously I'm not a fan of either of them.
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2017, 04:25:28 PM »

It's not guaranteed, but Casey is unquestionably favored.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2017, 05:52:56 PM »

I think Casey will win, but the margin is the big question, cause I can see Barletta racking up margins in rural Pennsylvania and doing relatively well in his old stomping grounds. At the same time, Casey has some background there and will probably make strong improvements in Philly where previously he had been weaker than the average Democrat.

If this seat falls several other seats have fallen and it will be a horrible day for Democrats.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2017, 07:01:05 PM »

I'll guess Casey for now, but by Tumor's margin

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Orser67
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2017, 02:02:54 PM »

I think it's definitely Likely D. GOP money/attention will be going to other races, Trump's unpopularity is going to be a huge factor, and Casey is an uncontroversial two-term incumbent in a swing state.

I also think that while Barletta may do well in most counties that voted for Trump, he could lose ground in the Philly metro area compared to Trump.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2017, 06:40:21 PM »

I think it's definitely Likely D. GOP money/attention will be going to other races, Trump's unpopularity is going to be a huge factor, and Casey is an uncontroversial two-term incumbent in a swing state.

I also think that while Barletta may do well in most counties that voted for Trump, he could lose ground in the Philly metro area compared to Trump.

Probably not worse than Trump in Philly burbs, but certainly worse than Tumor (btw I love the nickname, kudos to whoever made it!)
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2017, 10:43:33 AM »

reason d'etre ?

Oh my Shocked

Are we inventing a new language?
What, may I ask is the name of the language?

Franglish?
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