Who will win the Pennsylvania senate race?

[IceSpear]

Casey, as long as he actually runs a campaign this time.

[IceSpear]

Unless Casey refuses to campaign (which, while not impossible given how his 2008 race went, but unlikely given Trump won PA), he will win by 4-8 points.

*2012

He ran a great campaign in 2006, which is what I think you meant.

[IceSpear]

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him

As long as Casey doesn't completely collapse in the rest of the state like Hillary did he should be fine. Luckily Casey is uniquely positioned to outperform generic D just as he did in 2006/2012. Considering Barletta is a single issue anti-immigration Trumpian from the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, there's no doubt he's going to try to replicate Trump's exact victory path. But there's little margin for error there even in the best of days, much less with Trump's approval in the gutter.

[IceSpear]

Casey. Philly and Pittsburgh should turnout for him

As long as Casey doesn't completely collapse in the rest of the state like Hillary did he should be fine. Luckily Casey is uniquely positioned to outperform generic D just as he did in 2006/2012. Considering Barletta is a single issue anti-immigration Trumpian from the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, there's no doubt he's going to try to replicate Trump's exact victory path. But there's little margin for error there even in the best of days, much less with Trump's approval in the gutter.

The Scranton Wilkes-Barre Area is 1) the last hold out for the Dems in "the rest of the state" and 2) the one Casey is most likely to outperform Clinton massively in.

Having a local candidate who is immensely popular in that area and not just with Republicans (Barletta's father was a Democrat and he himself was nominated by both parties for Mayor in 2007), is I would think advantageous. Barletta's district also was redrawn stretching it down to the suburbs of Harrisburg, which means he has had to maintain a presence is two key areas of the state (NE and Harrisburg metro).  Barletta needs to work to raise his presence out west, and in the Philly suburbs, but I cannot help but think that Barletta is being prematurely written off as some far right loon who will get decimated, along with once again failing to grasp the importance of the immigration issue for working class voters. Especially when it comes to the issues of large increases in legal immigration and protecting sanctuary cities such as Philadelphia, which Casey has voted to do multiple times.

Toomey ran hard on this issue of sanctuary cities in the last election and his out performing of Trump in the Philly suburbs has been well noted. For liberals who have often noted the effect of dog whistles in the past to motivate suburban voters, they would be remiss to think that the immigration issue plays only to non-college whites in Hazelton. Some of the biggest immigration restrictionists, such as Brian Bilbray, Tom Tancredo, Dana Rohrabacher, and many others including many moderate Republicans from places like PA and NJ, came from high end surburban districts with relatively high levels of education attainment. While it is definitely so that Barletta should broaden his message to include other priorities as well, underestimating Barletta, and failing to comprehend the broad impact of the immigration issue on the electorate, ignores completely the lessons of 2016.

Trump destroyed Clinton in Luzerne County and only narrowly lost to her in Lackawanna County. I'd hardly call that area a hold out for Dems in the context of the 2016 presidential race. My point was that even if Barletta did manage to match Trump's performance there (which as you said, is far from a given due to Casey's appeal and Trump's declining approval rating) he still has a very tight rope to walk. Trump completely taking a wrecking ball to Clinton in everywhere except Philly, the Philly suburbs, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Happy Valley led to a 0.7% win. Is Barletta going to have any more appeal than Trump did in any of those areas, particularly when he's up against a stronger opponent in Casey who has consistently outperformed generic D in the past? Stranger things have happened obviously, but it seems unlikely. That's why I'd put the race at "likely D." I don't think he's a "far right loon who will get decimated" (well, I DO think he's a far right loon and I HOPE he gets decimated, but you get my point ) He's clearly a very serious candidate and Casey can't take anything for granted like he did in 2012 (thus my initial comment in the thread), but he seems like a solid favorite. As for the margin, I could only see Barletta getting decimated if a truly toxic environment for the GOP sinks him. It will likely be a competitive race otherwise.

Toomey may have run against sanctuary cities, but it was never his reason d'etre like Barletta. He's a Club for Growth conservative through and through. Always has been, always will be. That's why Toomey won Bucks County and Chester County while Trump lost them, yet got thumped in Lackawanna and carried Luzerne by far less than Trump did. It is pretty interesting, despite having similar margins at first glance, to see the different paths Trump/Toomey had to victory. Considering Barletta is from the Northeast and has been Trump-esque on immigration since back when Trump was a Democrat, it's pretty obvious which path he's going to try to emulate.

[IceSpear]

I expect Bartetta to run one of the most odious campaigns in 2018

Pretty safe assumption.