National map if Trump loses Texas

[I’m not Stu]

In the unlikely scenario Trump loses Texas, he probably also loses Arizona. There would likely be a national Democratic trend. What might a map with a Democrat winning TX look like? Perhaps this map?

Democratic ticket - 413
President Trump/Vice President Pence - 125

[wxtransit]

Only way that happens is if...

Dem - 535
Trump - 3

In reality, though, I would say the original map possibly minus SC and MO.

[Inmate Trump]

[tosk]

the original map is on the money. Trump loses texas it's a landslide.

[mgop]

that's absurd. like having map in trump wins california...

[MarkD]

In the unlikely scenario Trump loses Texas, he probably also loses Arizona. There would likely be a national Democratic trend. What might a map with a Democrat winning TX look like? Perhaps this map?

Democratic ticket - 413
President Trump/Vice President Pence - 125

I think in that scenario, Alaska, Indiana, and Louisiana would also flip.

[Inmate Trump]

Texas was closer than Iowa. It isn't that far-fetched. A map with TX, AZ, GA as Democrat states and IA and OH as GOP is conceivable.

Thank you.

The state was a lot closer than it should've been last year.  It won't flip in 2020, but its days as a GOP stronghold are numbered.

[Blackacre]

OP map has it about right, give or take ME-02 and Indiana

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[Lechasseur]

In the unlikely scenario Trump loses Texas, he probably also loses Arizona. There would likely be a national Democratic trend. What might a map with a Democrat winning TX look like? Perhaps this map?

Democratic ticket - 413
President Trump/Vice President Pence - 125

I think in that scenario, Alaska, Indiana, and Louisiana would also flip.

This

The Democrat: 435 EVs
Donald Trump: 103 EVs

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Unless the Democratic nominee is Chris Murphy, they don't have to do this well nationally to win Texas.

[RINO Tom]

[Tekken_Guy]

that's absurd. like having map in trump wins california...

No, it's not. It's way easier for a Democrat to win Texas than for a Republican to win California.

[pbrower2a]

that's absurd. like having map in trump wins california...

I have seen polls with Trump disapproval in the low 50s in Texas. It's not absurd if things get worse, as with an economic meltdown or with a diplomatic/military debacle. 

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

that's absurd. like having map in trump wins california...

I have seen polls with Trump disapproval in the low 50s in Texas. 

That means he's peaking lol.

Trump will get 55%+ in Texas in 2020.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I agree with that map except I also think he'd lose Missouri and possibly Montana as well.

I also think if the 2020 Dem wins Texas, s/he will also win Indiana like Obama did in 2008:

436-102 (most since Reagan 1984). 55%+ popular vote.

Montana would be the only one I'd probably switch back to GOP. If the Dem nominee gets Texas, then that's because the Dem is driving minority turnout like Obama did in 2008 except going insane with Latinos as well. Obama won Indiana and almost won Missouri.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I agree with that map except I also think he'd lose Missouri and possibly Montana as well.

I also think if the 2020 Dem wins Texas, s/he will also win Indiana like Obama did in 2008:

436-102 (most since Reagan 1984). 55%+ popular vote.

Montana would be the only one I'd probably switch back to GOP. If the Dem nominee gets Texas, then that's because the Dem is driving minority turnout like Obama did in 2008 except going insane with Latinos as well. Obama won Indiana and almost won Missouri.

I think having Pence on the ticket should be enough for him to narrowly keep Indiana here. I'd flip Indiana and South Carolina on this map.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

PA, NH and ME were for kicks.

Point is the things that would flip TX would also be in play in GA, NC and AZ, but not in places like Indiana, Missouri, the Plains, the Northern Mountains, the less diverse Southern states, and not quite as much at play in the rust belt swing states.

Those would be a shift among college educated whites, significantly higher minority turnout and significantly higher youth turnout. Only the second one is really at play in the rust belt, hence MI and WI flipping back. The youth vote support would be driven by college educated voters, while in the Midwest, the GOP trends are driven by non-college whites.

It is thus possible for all of those states to flip back to Dem, but narrowly and thus produce a map where the rust belt and Northern New England trends Republican again, because AZ, TX, GA, NC and FL, as well as SC and MS would have trended substantially towards the Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

PA, NH and ME were for kicks.

Point is the things that would flip TX would also be in play in GA, NC and AZ, but not in places like Indiana, Missouri, the Plains, the Northern Mountains, the less diverse Southern states, and not quite as much at play in the rust belt swing states.

Those would be a shift among college educated whites, significantly higher minority turnout and significantly higher youth turnout. Only the second one is really at play in the rust belt, hence MI and WI flipping back. The youth vote support would be driven by college educated voters, while in the Midwest, the GOP trends are driven by non-college whites.

It is thus possible for all of those states to flip back to Dem, but narrowly and thus produce a map where the rust belt and Northern New England trends Republican again, because AZ, TX, GA, NC and FL, as well as SC and MS would have trended substantially towards the Democrats.

This.  If Texas flips this quickly, it's because Democrats are officially the New South party and Republicans the Midwest party.  While I don't think this will happen in 2020, it's a very plausible Dem +5 over Pence map for 2024.

I also don't think Oklahoma would be over 60% R if Democrats are winning Texas. Oklahoma County at least would be a Dem blowout if they are winning places like Tarrant to carry Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats winning Texas? They would have to get heavy Democratic turnout in  Dallas, Travis, Bexar, and Harris counties and those along the Rio Grande, flip Jefferson, Orange, and Nueces Counties, cut heavily into the 'educated white vote' that they do not yet get in counties surrounding Dallas (including Tarrant, which is almost half suburban despite having Fort Worth)  as they got in metropolitan areas around giant northern and western cities... It's easy to see what the disaster is for a Republican nominee.  Part is demographic, but part is that the Republicans are completing the loss of educated suburbanites -- including white ones.

Texas used to be a poor 'redneck' state, but that is over. The reliably Republican areas are the rural areas, especially in the Panhandle.

[HisGrace]

OP's map is about right. I could see him maybe hanging on to Iowa even if he lost Texas, though. Trump only won 52-43 in Texas. If you view it as comparable to California or New York you're stuck in the past.

[RINO Tom]

OP's map is about right. I could see him maybe hanging on to Iowa even if he lost Texas, though. Trump only won 52-43 in Texas. If you view it as comparable to California or New York you're stuck in the past.

Iowa is way more elastic, IMO.  It would absolutely flip before Texas.

[IceSpear]

Trump won't lose Texas, even in a D tidal wave.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump won't lose Texas, even in a D tidal wave.

this is correct; Texas might have been very close in 2016, but that was a huge fluke that is unlikely to hold up again.  It is possible that even if Democrats win popular vote by 10% in 2020, that Texas could be among the holdouts that swing towards the Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Trump won't lose Texas, even in a D tidal wave.

this is correct; Texas might have been very close in 2016, but that was a huge fluke that is unlikely to hold up again.  It is possible that even if Democrats win popular vote by 10% in 2020, that Texas could be among the holdouts that swing towards the Republicans.

I think there's a good chance it swings toward the Democrats again (especially in a D wave), but it's hard to see them closing a 9 point gap in 4 years, especially in Texas of all places. It would require vast resources to compete there, and no Democrat is going to pour millions into that sinkhole when they need to be worried about winning actual swing states.