Prospects of a Contested Convention in a Trumpless primary (user search)
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  Prospects of a Contested Convention in a Trumpless primary (search mode)
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Author Topic: Prospects of a Contested Convention in a Trumpless primary  (Read 1273 times)
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« on: October 25, 2017, 07:27:43 PM »

I could see Cruz very easily riding the anti-establishment wave (though on a more tea party style populism) and winning the nomination. Jeb! is proven to be a weak candidate and was not in the right climate for any Bush to win and would still get crushed. Rubio and Kasich are the wildcarda and could hamper Cruz's efforts. I do see however that Rubio and Kasich do better then with Trump and Kasich could take some more Midwesten and northern states and Rubio would have a better chance at South Carolina and Florida.
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2017, 09:20:51 PM »

I could see Cruz very easily riding the anti-establishment wave (though on a more tea party style populism) and winning the nomination. Jeb! is proven to be a weak candidate and was not in the right climate for any Bush to win and would still get crushed. Rubio and Kasich are the wildcarda and could hamper Cruz's efforts. I do see however that Rubio and Kasich do better then with Trump and Kasich could take some more Midwesten and northern states and Rubio would have a better chance at South Carolina and Florida.

Every single candidate that attacked Trump collapsed. The Jeb='weaker than everyone else' assessment ignores that rubio/cruz refused to attack Trump until late and especially rubio when he attacked he collapsed as quickly as Jeb did.

That is indeed true. When major republican opponents did attack Trump like in the case of Cruz of and Rubio, it almost instantly backfired and flipped on that person causing there campaigns to falter. Jeb!, unlike Rubio or Cruz, went on the offensive against trump early on in the late 2015, early 2016 campaign season and due to this his campaign never made it anywhere besides a hundred million dollars wasted money. Though his demise this quickly should show his quality as a candidate and the mood of the electorate. Such a well funded, well recognized republican like Jeb! should of endured such Trump attacks was the prevailing theory, but that failed to get the mood of the base of such republican types and he faltered. I see what you mean that without Trump, Jeb! would not have been attacked as hard (unless Cruz went on the offensive early) and as early and may have lasted longer as a viable candidate, but he would fail due to the anti-establishment mood the republican primary base felt and showed which led to the rose of Trump. And as said, I believe Cruz could easily fit that mantle. I'm not saying Jeb! is weaker then everyone else (there are certainly weaker candidates, Paul comes to mind) but such a well managed and funded campaign should of much bettered handled attacks from candidates while taking into account the mood of the primary's. I don't see why this changes without Trump and would repeat the same mistakes and fail. Which in my opinion made Jeb! a weak candidate in this cycle and in a cycle without Trump.
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