Prospects of a Contested Convention in a Trumpless primary

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In a Trumpless race, either Walker, Rubio, or Jeb! wins. No contested convention.

Cruz benefited by Trump's presence. Without Trump, Cruz IMO isn't even the Huckabee/Santorum of the 2016 race.

Walker would have likely won the Iowa caucuses, so we know what that means in a GOP race - death of a candidacy. However, Walker's gimmick was that he was able to "bridge the gap" between the Establishment and Tea Party. The question is - could he?

Jeb! of course had the money. The question for Jeb! is without Trump in the race, can he win New Hampshire? Jeb! would have got destroyed in Iowa (not as bad as he did, but likely 4th or lower) so IMO he'd have to win New Hampshire. He'd have to win too and not just come in second.

Rubio would have had a similar run as he did. He'd likely surge in Iowa and come in second. The question is does he meltdown like he did in real life?

Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, etc. etc. wouldn't be much of a factor. Ben may have had the surge he had in October 2015 but it'd end up the same way (I am assuming ceteris paribus - thus things like the Paris and San Bernardino terrorist attacks still happen). Rand Paul couldn't generate the excitement his father did.

IMO it comes down to Florida - if Jeb! won New Hampshire, survived Super Tuesday, and won Florida he'd win the nomination. If Rubio won Florida either he or Walker wins the nomination. Ohio would also be important - Kasich likely drops from the race if he loses New Hampshire.

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Without Trump, Jeb begins his slide in December instead of earlier. Cruz and Carson are very close in Iowa, Kasich wins NH, thus gaining the endorsement of Sandoval and Graham, and Kasich gets second in SC and first in NV. Rubio wins SC and gets second in NV.

From there, I think Kasich wins.

Assuming ceteris paribus sans Trump - so meaning things like the Paris attacks happen, Carson would have been doomed no matter what.

Walker would have been duking it out with Cruz for Iowa. The one thing though is Cruz really used Trump's candidacy to his advantage, so Walker likely would have won Iowa.

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In a Trumpless race, either Walker, Rubio, or Jeb! wins. No contested convention.

Cruz benefited by Trump's presence. Without Trump, Cruz IMO isn't even the Huckabee/Santorum of the 2016 race.

Walker would have likely won the Iowa caucuses, so we know what that means in a GOP race - death of a candidacy. However, Walker's gimmick was that he was able to "bridge the gap" between the Establishment and Tea Party. The question is - could he?

Jeb! of course had the money. The question for Jeb! is without Trump in the race, can he win New Hampshire? Jeb! would have got destroyed in Iowa (not as bad as he did, but likely 4th or lower) so IMO he'd have to win New Hampshire. He'd have to win too and not just come in second.

Rubio would have had a similar run as he did. He'd likely surge in Iowa and come in second. The question is does he meltdown like he did in real life?

Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, etc. etc. wouldn't be much of a factor. Ben may have had the surge he had in October 2015 but it'd end up the same way (I am assuming ceteris paribus - thus things like the Paris and San Bernardino terrorist attacks still happen). Rand Paul couldn't generate the excitement his father did.

IMO it comes down to Florida - if Jeb! won New Hampshire, survived Super Tuesday, and won Florida he'd win the nomination. If Rubio won Florida either he or Walker wins the nomination. Ohio would also be important - Kasich likely drops from the race if he loses New Hampshire.

Bush won IA in 2000 and lost NH

Iowa doesn't have a good track record for the GOP nominee. In 1980 they chose Bush. In 1988 they chose Dole. Then of course Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz the last 3 times.

Cruz was done the second he won Iowa which is why I focused on Rubio over Cruz.

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I never understood why the Establishment backed Jeb! so much. Not nearly as much as Romney, but he was the clear Establishment favorite. The "Romney" of 2016.

With Romney, he at least ran a national campaign just 4 years earlier, and was relevant from 2009-2011 in terms of the "fight" against Obama.

Not only that, but he was the runner-up and the runner-ups always get a second chance in the GOP. Romney also got lucky and ran against a bunch of clowns as well. I like Ron Paul but he's just not a national candidate, and Santorum focused way too much on social issues.

However, it should have been clear that despite the clown car, the success of random candidates (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, etc. etc.) showed that the GOP base DIDN'T want a typical establishment nominee. They eventually were forced to settle on Romney, but only after everything else had been tried.

So my question is why the hell did the Establishment not only double down, but select JEB BUSH of all people?

- The Bush name is toxic
- As Establishment as Romney was, a Bush makes him look like a full blown outsider
- Jeb Bush did nothing but insult GOP primary voters
- They gave him literally $130 million and they were clearly expecting Jeb! to buy his way into the nomination/Presidency
- He did NOTHING for the 8 years Obama was President. He campaigned a little bit in 2014 to set up for 2016, and he did some speech about education in 2012 but other than that he was gone. He wasn't there for the fight against Obama and he just shows up expecting a semi-coronation?
- He hasn't had a campaign since 2002, and never a national one. It was clear he was super rusty in 2016

It's just so insulting they ran him. What did they expect? They were so arrogant to think they could just buy the nomination. They didn't even want to fight for it in 2016 like they did in 2012. Funnily enough they made Florida winner-take-all in order to make it easy for Jeb! to win the nomination, but instead backfired on them and helped accelerate Trump's path. Glorious!

Should've backed Rubio, but I think Rubio has some dirt on him.