Alternate 1st presidents if George Washington refuses to be pres

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Adams is by far and away the frontrunner in any scenario where Washington declines the presidency. He was objectively among the mosts influential members of the Second Continental Congress — arguably the most influential, as Chairman of the Board of War and de facto floor leader for the pro-independence faction — had established himself as a leading voice on constitutional theory with Thoughts on Government and his authorship of the Massachusetts Constitution, and enjoyed a prominent and distinguished diplomatic career besides. In actual history, his reputation was considered so great as to potentially threaten the unanimity of Washington's election, and had Washington refused to be considered, there is no question that Adams could have mustered a majority of the electors.

Apart from Adams, the other possible choices are either too old or too young, lack the necessary national reputation for election, or were uninterested in the presidency. Madison and Hamilton fall into the first category — they had only just risen to national attention with the Federalist Papers — as do Franklin and John Hancock. George Clinton is a potential contender, but probably no more than that. Jefferson in 1788 was not yet the leading voice of American liberalism he would become; his national reputation was largely an outgrowth of his time as Washington's Secretary of State, and while we revere him for it today, writing the Declaration of Independence was not a landmark achievement in the popular imagination until the Republicans made it so during the campaigns of 1796 and 1800. Sam Adams seems like a logical choice, but would suffer from the rule prohibiting electors from voting for two candidates from their home state, as the Massachusetts electors would all but assuredly be backing John. Patrick Henry, John Jay, and John Rutledge all probably win votes as well.

If Adams does not win a majority, it's very possible that the election would be thrown to the House, where the states would then have had the choice of the five highest polling candidates. The delegates to the Philadelphia Convention considered this the likeliest outcome of most presidential elections (with Washington serving as a rare example of a candidate with sufficient national support to build a majority), viewing the electoral college as effectively a series of nominating caucuses that would send candidates to the real vote in Congress. Personally, I think this the second-most-likely outcome in lieu of an Adams majority.