Is Kansas really trending Democratic?

[President Johnson]

Or are people overreacting to the 2018 gubernatorial election, in which an A-tier Democratic candidate defeated on of the worst Republican politicians by five points in a blue wave midterm year? Kansas had a Democratic governor as recently as 2011 before; in 2006, Kathleen Sebelius won reelection with 57% of the vote. Not to mention statewide elections are different from national ones. Another key factor here is that Brownback screwed up as governor with his tax experiment and even faced backlash from Republicans.

I have doubts the state is on track to become the next Colorado or so, despite suburban trends away from the Trumpist Republican Party. Having the state competitive beyond the gubernatorial level would actually require stronger population growth in metros and suburban areas, especially from Hispanics and/or African Americans.

[Person Man]

Is there a strong growth of migration from Central America into Kansas?

[Hope For A New Era]

Kansas is not on track to become the next Colorado, it's on track to become the next Indiana: a mostly Republican state that has a small chance of flipping in a landslide election (2008, in Indiana's case).

The Democrats have become stronger in Kansas in recent years for these reasons:

1. Backlash against Brownback (and others - Kobach, etc)
2. Growing diversity in the southwest part of the state. The most diverse municipality in Kansas is not in the KC or Wichita metros, it's Garden City. Since the 1980s, successive waves of immigration have hit the area, first from Southeast Asia, then Somalia, and more recently Mexico and Central America.
3. The suburban realignment is beginning to properly kick in in the Kansas City area. Johnson County has trended strongly toward the Democrats in recent years, and I would not be surprised to see Biden win the county, or at least come very close, this November.

[Orser67]

There has been a legitimate move towards the Democratic Party in the state (outside of presidential elections), but a lot of the optimism stems from the same misguided place that led people to start calling Louisiana Likely R after Edwards won in 2015.

[MarkD]

No, people are overreacting the elections of Democrats to the Governor's office a few times. That is no different than the fact that Republicans still get elected Governor in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont. The gubernatorial elections are not indicative of the state's general trend.

[walleye26]

Kansas is not on track to become the next Colorado, it's on track to become the next Indiana: a mostly Republican state that has a small chance of flipping in a landslide election (2008, in Indiana's case).

The Democrats have become stronger in Kansas in recent years for these reasons:

1. Backlash against Brownback (and others - Kobach, etc)
2. Growing diversity in the southwest part of the state. The most diverse municipality in Kansas is not in the KC or Wichita metros, it's Garden City. Since the 1980s, successive waves of immigration have hit the area, first from Southeast Asia, then Somalia, and more recently Mexico and Central America.
3. The suburban realignment is beginning to properly kick in in the Kansas City area. Johnson County has trended strongly toward the Democrats in recent years, and I would not be surprised to see Biden win the county, or at least come very close, this November.

Don’t those immigrants not vote though? Like Ford and Seward counties are heavily minority yet titanium R.

[MABA 2020]

No, not at all

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a strong growth of migration from Central America into Kansas?

Not in most of the state. But in a few select regions, sure. Such as Liberal, Kansas, and that wider area.

[Politician]

Yes, slightly

[Smash255]

Kansas is not on track to become the next Colorado, it's on track to become the next Indiana: a mostly Republican state that has a small chance of flipping in a landslide election (2008, in Indiana's case).

The Democrats have become stronger in Kansas in recent years for these reasons:

1. Backlash against Brownback (and others - Kobach, etc)
2. Growing diversity in the southwest part of the state. The most diverse municipality in Kansas is not in the KC or Wichita metros, it's Garden City. Since the 1980s, successive waves of immigration have hit the area, first from Southeast Asia, then Somalia, and more recently Mexico and Central America.
3. The suburban realignment is beginning to properly kick in in the Kansas City area. Johnson County has trended strongly toward the Democrats in recent years, and I would not be surprised to see Biden win the county, or at least come very close, this November.

Trump won Johnson County by 2.5 after Romney won it by 17.5.  Kobach lost it by 16.7%, granted different race, and that won't repeat itself for President.  55.3% have a Bachelor's Degree.  Johnson is GONE for the GOP, and the state is trending Democratic.   With that said, it isn't trending anywhere hard enough and is coming from too Republican for the Democrats to have any realistic shot of winning the state outside of a large national victory where it sneaks by (Indiana 2008)

[QAnonKelly]

Yes but there’s not a big enough metro to drag it over the hump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, senior females are a constituency of the Dem.party: Gov Kelly, Warren, Hilary and Barb Bollier have endorsed Biden. GOV KELLY has Sebelius appeal

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't know why people say this just because a suburban congressional district flipped and a Democrat won a governor's seat (in a strong D year).  Larry Hogan won in Maryland.  St. Louis suburbs trended D too.  I don't see the argument.   

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yes, senior females are a constituency of the Dem.party: Gov Kelly, Warren, Hilary and Barb Bollier have endorsed Biden. GOV KELLY has Sebelius appeal

You're great

[Smash255]

I don't know why people say this just because a suburban congressional district flipped and a Democrat won a governor's seat (in a strong D year).  Larry Hogan won in Maryland.  St. Louis suburbs trended D too.  I don't see the argument.   

The St Louis suburbs didn't trend nearly as hard as Johnson County and were balanced out by more GOP trends elsewhere in the state.   You don't have the same GOP trends in rural Kansas as you did in rural Missouri to balance out the suburban trends (in part because rural Kansas has traditionally been more GOP than rural Missouri it didn't have nearly as far to move)

With that said I don't think anyone is making a suggestion that Kansas would be in play outside a potentially lopsided national election perhaps, but that there is some movement in the state as a whole.  Trending a certain way and actually being competitive are two very different things.

[Coastal Elitist]

No, one election is not a trend. Also Hillary got 35% of the vote in 2016 which is the lowest percent for a Democratic candidate in Kansas since her husband in 1992. Trump actually did better in Kansas than George H.W. Bush did in 1988 not that that really means anything either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, one election is not a trend. Also Hillary got 35% of the vote in 2016 which is the lowest percent for a Democratic candidate in Kansas since her husband in 1992. Trump actually did better in Kansas than George H.W. Bush did in 1988 not that that really means anything either.

KS trended D and so did AZ  in 2002 and 2006 when Sibelius and Napolitano got elected Govs, too